WSOP ME hand, biggest hand I ran into... analysis greatly urged

[Jurollo]

Blinds 100/200 ante 25 (Level 4)
1,250 or so left in the day 1a field

Stacks
My stack: approx T8000
MP2 stack: approx T20000
BB stack: approx T15000

Fairly weak passive table except for a few good players. Limps are generally good enough to see a flop. MP2 just sat around 30 mins ago and has raised when he has played, very little limping, he is also big stack at table.

I see 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] UTG and limp, folded to MP2 who makes it T650 to go. Folded to BB who calls for T450, I think and call. I have a tight image at the table and have generally played solid all tourney.

POT: T2200
FLOP T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
BB checks, I bet T1500, MP2 looks at me and raises to T3600 total. So T2100 more for me to call, and I have about T6000 left in front of me. I think about it and push. He calls. I say "You got overs but I am the favorite".

Results
<font color="white">Turn: Td
river: 3h

I show 7s with an 8 kicker
He shows Qd Qs and takes down the pot</font>

Thoughts?

[shaniac]

I haven't read the results yeat, but my initial thoughts are 1) this is exactly the type of hand I want to avoid on day 1 tomorrow but 2) once you made the bet on the flop, I like the push.

I really think you would have been better off raising the hand to begin with or limp-folding. You put yourself in an annoying spot preflop. Then on the flop, where you pretty much hit the best possible hand you could have but are still very vulnerable, I don't love the bet. If I felt inclined to bet the flop, I think I'd bet something like $1,000, but I am more inclined to go for the check-raise there. Since it's likely the original raiser will bet, you gain the additional information of the BB's strength on the flop.

If, after you check, MP2 bets and BB folds, I think it's a decent spot to check-raise on the semi-bluff. You might have to commit more of your stack on a CR, but it looks stronger, might win you the pot right there, and you can re-evaluate your hand on the turn if he calls.

My guess is he had something like AcKc or AA/KK.

[Hotrod0823]

UTG and sitting with 40BB I am mucking 87s. Playing 87s out of position is asking for trouble I think. Yeah if it hits you're in good shape but a near miss or a near hit will cost you.

[Jurollo]

[ QUOTE ]
UTG and sitting with 40BB I am mucking 87s. Playing 87s out of position is asking for trouble I think. Yeah if it hits you're in good shape but a near miss or a near hit will cost you.

[/ QUOTE ]
Agreed, however.. with the ability to limp and see a flop with a hand that could make me a killing against a generally weak table I have no regrets preflop. The raiser, was fairly weak (from the 20-25 hands I saw) and the BB was a joker. On the flop I felt I had a decent amount of folding equity, the T2200 would have been big for me at this point. Once he raised I was getting well over 3.5:1 on my money, no regrets on this end and I appreciate the responses so far, would appreciate some tourney gurus to chime in as well.
~Justin

[THATWACOKID]

I like a cr all in here if the BB folds to the raisers continuation. Seems to me that there would be more fold equity with a cr than there would be with a lead. Also, if he's not the aggro type (which is my impression) that will reraise your lead with overs you get him to put more chips in if he has overs.

[West]

That's poker..

I like Shaniac's suggestion to check, and consider check raising all in while seeing what BB does. If it turns out he has AK or similar, you're more likely to get chips out of him, and you probably have a better chance of him folding an overpair. And depending what happens, maybe BB throws some more money in pot with a worse hand. Hindsight is always 20/20 though..sorry you didn't catch a break with the hand you needed to.

[Hotrod0823]

Agreed you played for a monster and were almost there.

[A_PLUS]

I'm no guru, but here is my 2 cents.

I have to be pretty certain that there isnt going to be a raise PF to limp here. (there is too good of a chance that someone wakes up with AJ+, TT+ here IMO) It isnt really the 40xBB stack (I think that is just about deep enough for it) My problem is that everyone else is deep enough (and it is ealry enough) that a limp from UG doesnt set off alarms and cause a good hand to limp behind.

Onced it is raised, I think you have to muck. Yes you are getting good pot odds, but the hand has much worse CEV without position.

So you are risking almost 10% of your stack on a hand that is going to very rarely give you an identifiable line post flop, unless it is fold.

Your opponents are probably playing high cards or PPs. So to really get the action post flop to play this hand, someone else will have to hit their hand as well. Otherwise you are going to be aggressively pursuing a draw.

The draw that is most likely to get paid off is the ignorant end of the straight, but it also has a decent chance to bust you.

I just dont see a high enough % of flops that are going to leave you with a +CEV play, to justify 10% of your stack.

Post flop, I think it is a toss up between your line and a check raise. The benefit of your line, is that you may chase out some hands that beat you that would have committed themselves to the hand prior to your check-raise. The big benefit of the check raise is that there is a small chance that you are getting a free card that allows you to make a much easier turn decision.

That being said, you got your money in at a good time after the flop. Dont beat yourself up, these are the draws that anyone making a serious run will hit. You were coin flip from having a nice chip stack to take to the 2nd day.

[ClaytonN]

I posted this in the other thread, not knowing you were suited in clubs on a 2club flop, but here goes:

I like checking out here and analyzing what the other people do. A checkraise all-in or a stop'n'go from flop to turn from there look good. I don't like the flop bet, and I'm not a big fan of pushing there because villain doesn't seem to be the kind of player who's raising 3x your flop bet with high cards + little redraws. You're kind of stuck when that happens.

[sirio11]

PREFLOP:
I don't like the limp preflop, you're in a terrible position to play this hand, you don't have a monster stack, you're just asking for trouble, most of the time I'm folding this hand and if I decide to play, I think it's better to raise because hardly they're going to put you in this hand. But given your stack size for me this is a clear fold.
After your limp, of course you need to call the raise.

FLOP:
You had a great flop, I don't like your bet in the flop. If you're going to play the flop aggresivly, and because of your stack size, I think a better play is to check raise all in, because then he has a real decision to make, since you bet-reraised, it's not that hard for him to call you, he has a hand and great odds.
Anyway, you were on the favorite side of the flip and lose. It's always hard to walk away from the ME, but you're pretty young, you have like 80 more ME to play.
Cheer up, man.

David