volatility of WTSD statistic - attn JeffW (or other stat guys)

[donger]

Hey
I've been enduring a pretty lackluster run over the past 30 days or so. I've been playing at a different site, with less game selection and tougher players, so I'm not sure if bad luck is the entire story. One thing I've noticed over this stretch is that my WTSD stat is under my old PP 5/10 average.
I'm sitting at 34.4/49.36 and 35.52/48.17 WTSD/W$AtSD for the 5/10 and 3/6 respectively. I've been taking a groin punch at both limits (15k hands or so).

My average WTSD/W$AtSD for PP 5/10 is ~36/50.5 over 50k hands of 2.1/100.

How volatile is this stat? I have been doing my best to get to showdown in these more aggro games, but my WTSD is still lower than in the passive, juicy party games.

Am I being run over?

Footnote:
My folded to river bet is 36% normally and 31.6% for the cold streak in question.

[Stefan_K]

if your W$AtSD is lower than 50% than i'm not sure that the problem is that you call down with to few hands. you are probebly running bad, loosen up or playing overaggr. what is your won when saw flop?

[donger]

[ QUOTE ]
if your W$AtSD is lower than 50% than i'm not sure that the problem is that you call down with to few hands. you are probebly running bad, loosen up or playing overaggr. what is your won when saw flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

47.05 and 46.9 respectively (for the bad run). 41.9% for the good party sample. My AP is .2 greater for the latter sample.

[Stefan_K]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
if your W$AtSD is lower than 50% than i'm not sure that the problem is that you call down with to few hands. you are probebly running bad, loosen up or playing overaggr. what is your won when saw flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

47.05 and 46.9 respectively

[/ QUOTE ]
ok, then you might be a bit overaggro in wrong possisons. that is my guess but to be honest i dont know how you should view these numbers, but you have higher WonWhen saw flop than me, but lower went to sd and won at sd. has to meen something

[beachbum]

Don't focus playing a certain way to try and reach a specific stat number or range. After about 10K hands or so at 5/10 SH, my WtSD was ~30%. I made it a point to showdown more hands, but I think I just called down all the wrong ones. As a result I dropped almost 400BB at the worst point as I was completely off balance.

FWIW, my last 25,000 hands I'm at 30.73/59.26 and kicking the sh*t out of the game. So, focus on playing each hand optimally and let the stats take care of themselves. If you don't think you're showing down enough hands, focus on posting hands where you think you should have shown down but didn't. Hell, post hands where you did showdown but you questioned whether it was right. Just like money, stats take care of themselves when we focus on optimal play.

Improving in poker is all about subtle tweaks to our games and not widespread changes at once.

JMHO