Stats after First 10,000 Hands--comments appreciated

[Macedon]

At the risk of being flamed for being too results-oriented, or of breaking some informal rule about posting results, I offer my stats after my first 10,000 hands played on-line. Please offer up any opinions/comments.

That is....Am I playing too tight? Are my $$ numbers too low considering the blinds I play at? Should I play more aggressively pre-flop? What would be considered average numbers for a 2+2 player? Would I be better suited playing checkers, or connect-four? You can be honest.

Stats:
Hands Played: 10,200*
Amount Won: $960
Win rate per 100 hands: $9
Big Bets Won Per 100 hands: $7
VPIP: 15%
Won $ at SD: 54%
PF Raise: 2.8%

*The majority of my hands have been played at the $50/$100 level, but this number also includes a couple of disasterous sessions (during my first week) played at the $20 level.

[xorbie]

You raise PF way too little. This means you are losing valuable BB with hands which hold significant preflop edges. That's not good.

[BZ_Zorro]

Most people don't even win at poker, especially when they first start. The stats look great.

Only comment is PFR, it looks a bit low. When you're comfortable with it, try raising AQ, AJs, KQs and see how it works. Probably not just yet though. Other much better players will tell you to raise more on the button, I don't agree with this when you're starting. Ideally PFR should be 5+, though I'm very happy with 4+.

What's your WtSD%? Flop/turn/river aggression?

[PinkSteel]

Low pfr, as others said. Read fimbulwinter's excellent post on Math, EV and Middle Pair Options in MH, and strongly consider raising your mid-PPs more in position.

[BZ_Zorro]

And be sure to note this part:

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At a loosepassive table say of new players, limping is probably best as continuation bets get called correctly and players will pay off, so a raise gains really no value in deception.

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[Macedon]

BZ Zorro, I don't have access to my poker tracker stats on this computer (I'm at work), so I can't tell you what my WTSD% is or those other aggression numbers are, but i imagine that it is probably too low, much like my pre-flop aggression #.

My first week playing was brutal and it shell-shocked me for a while, causing me to tighten up. I just couldn't believe what people would call you with at the $20 level when you showed strength. The result was that I got crushed by the unexpected.

When I decided to jump to $50 the first thing i noticed was that the quality of play increased, somewhat. Eventually, the more familiar play style [that I experienced] helped motivate me to come out from underneath my rock. Now I play a lot more aggressively, but it still hasn't averaged into my stats.

So even with some of these numbers being too low, can you say if I'm on the right track?

My friends play on-line yet hell will freeze over first before they share their stats. For some reason they guard their numbers like their ATM password. What is the big deal, I wonder? I know their stats are better than mine, but even an ego-stroking won't get them to share.

How did any else do on their 1st 10,000 hands. (I realize this is indicative of almost nothing, but it is a base and it IS interesting, right?)

[BZ_Zorro]

I played for several months before getting PT, maybe 20K hands, no idea on stats. I lost about $4000 over two months at 25-100NL, which is probably more than normal. Most players lose money when starting out, and I think any profit you can show early on is an excellent sign.

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...can you say if I'm on the right track?

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I think ideal stats are (10 handed):

VPIP: 14-19
PFR: 4-6
WtSD: 20-25% (anything below 15 you're too weak-tight)
W$SD: 50-55%
Aggression factors
Flop 2 - 3
Turn 1 - 1.5+
River 1 - 1.5+

Combined with VPIP, good flop aggression is the key to winning imo. Less so turn and river aggression. Find opportunities to bet and raise (or fold) and take them. It's easy to go overboard, but only one or two less calls per 100 hands will make a big difference.

W$WSF: 30% (not that important)
BB/100: 5+
With good game selection and consistently solid play you should be able to top 10PTBB/100. Realistically this isn't achievable early on, anything over 5+ is good imo.

I've had big winning and big losing streaks (10K+ hands), and have spent a lot of time analysing the losing streaks. Stats for a losing streak always look like (for me):

VPIP: 18+
VPIP from SB: 30+
Post flop aggression:
Flop <1.5
Turn, River <1

PFR, WtSD, W$SD, dont' really change that much between winning and losing play (for me).

Hope this helps.

edit: You may find this interesting too: Stages in a Poker Player's Life by Ray Zee

[Macedon]

Actually, everything you have written does help. Thank you, I appreciate it. And I also appreciate you sharing your first 10T hand experience. (Where is the honesty of the rest of our fellow 2+2er's?)

I read Ray's article not too long ago and I can certainly see how a player goes through stages. Hopefully my overly-aggressive stage (when it comes) won't be too long or financially painful. Not that these dollar amounts will cause any real pain---school & town taxes accomplish that goal right now and loosing that amount (or something comparable) playing on-line would be unimagginable, especially at these blind levels.

[jonnyUCB]

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Hopefully my overly-aggressive stage (when it comes) won't be too long or financially painful

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AKA the "I read two-plus-two and can beat everyone on the table out of their money" stage. Continuing being modest about asking for advice and expecting players to be somewhat competent and this stage is not too painful.

[RiverFenix]

It really annoys me when people make money at a level they shouldnt be playing at and then ask how theyre playing -- 2+2 would have a few hundred less posts every year if people didnt ask for VPIP/WSD/PFR critique posts. Somewhere along the lines of playing 10k hands you shouldve had time to figure out what ranges come close to optimal.