blind play

[jt1]

SB is unknown

folds
SB calls
Hero with K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] checks (raise??)

4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

SB bets
Hero raises
SB calls

3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

SB bets
Hero folds

[cartman]

I think calling this turn bet is out of the question.

Cartman

Without a club I think you gotta muck this turn like you did.

[jt1]

[ QUOTE ]
I think calling this turn bet is out of the question.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for your response, though, I decided that I owe it to myself to look for the answer myself rather than rely on you guys like I've done since I started playing semi-pro over a year ago.

I gave a hand range for my opponent and I imbued him with the skills to be a great poker player. Against this mastermind, I find that I'm a 2.5-1 favorite to be ahead by the turn and a 1.3-1 favorite to be ahead by the SD. Obviously, I'm getting enormous odds to raise this. So how much credit should we be giving unknown players?

40% of them are loose passive (super rough estimate)
40% are tight passive
10% are LAG
9% are winning players, lets say TAG's
1% are superstar.

So if 10% are capable of throwing me off the best hand here then do I still have the odds to raise? How would I calculate that exactly?

I'll give it a try: There's a 68% chance that I'm best at the moment, if I'm facing a TAG. Yet only 10% of players are TAGs. Does that mean there's only a 6.8% chance that I have the best hand? If there is only a 6.8% chance that I have the best hand and I have to win 28% of the time to break even then you are right, Cartman, calling is out of the question. (though, I considered raising rather than calling.

If anyone wants to respond to my estimates and how we use those estimates to determine our odds, I'd be grateful.

[waffle]

[ QUOTE ]
Yet only 10% of players are TAGs.

[/ QUOTE ]

TAGs play more often than most other players. The chance an unknown is a tag is much higher than 10% unless you're playing 1/2 or something.

[Catt]

What sort of hand range are you using that has you as a 2.5-1 favorite here?

[jt1]

[ QUOTE ]
What sort of hand range are you using that has you as a 2.5-1 favorite here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Anything reasonable that beats me like 35, A2, 67, or any 2 clubs and hands like Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4, J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3. A6, any A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. The only hands that might be stretch that I included are J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3, but I included them because a TAG...........oh I just realized something.. a TAG or a LAG would never just open complete in the SB against me. This all but gurantees that I am beat here on the turn.


[ QUOTE ]
TAGs play more often than most other players. The chance an unknown is a tag is much higher than 10% unless you're playing 1/2 or something.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think most winning players are Tight passive rather than TAG. I know this is true for full ring games. Tight passives probably don't like the 6 max games, but things like semi-bluffing, value raising draws, betting middle pair on the river aren't done as much as they should be by the regulars.

[wheelz]

i would in fact raise preflop.

[wuarhg]

[ QUOTE ]
i would in fact raise preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]