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Old 01-08-2005, 02:47 AM
bholdr bholdr is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: whoring for bonus
Posts: 1,442
Default BJ down swing- want to find out how rare of an event this is...

ok so i'm playing blackjack at five bucks a hand, everything going cool... then the cards go cold for a couple hundred hands. not just cold, but 'holy crap gimme something to smash i hate this damn game i'm gonna quit forever, i swear' cold. i keep accurate track of my hands, and here it is:

212 bets in about 195 hands (i use 54 bet intervals to record my bonus clearing progress)
first interval -12 bets
second interval -18 bets (yuck! lost two doubles and both ends of a split in this one, and pushed a BJ)
third +1 bet
fourth -15 bets
=
a -44 bet swing (220$, my whole bonus and then some)

in an overall session of 636 bets, @ 590 hands
and this is at downtown vegas rules BJ, house advantage .36%, my play was nearly perfect (i may have made one or two mistakes, max, i still fail to double a soft 14 into a five sometimes, or mis-click the mouse etc).

how do i calculate the SD for these odds and session lenghts? is there a downloadable spreadsheet that will do it for me?

i don't often post in the odds forum, forgive me if this is an annoying or O/T post, but i'd really like to know how often i'll have to deal with this.
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