Value bet the river?

PygmyHero · #1 12-01-2005, 10:31 AM

I am the best player at the table and have been somewhat dominant.

UTG is limping virtually every hand (any connected, any suited, etc.), and goes too far with them.

BB actually seems to be making an effort to play decent cards, but he also goes too far with them (I think he's kind of marrying good PG hands).

SB is also weak.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (6 max, 4 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, Hero calls, SB completes, BB raises, UTG calls, Hero calls, SB calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB bets, UTG calls, Hero calls, SB folds.

Turn: (5.50 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, UTG calls, Hero raises, BB calls, UTG calls.

Inter hand read: This is important - the BB auto bet the flop and turn but thought for a really really long time before finally calling when I raised the turn. If we were live, I imagine he would have been sighing and agonizing over the call. UTG called every bet up to this point immediately.

River: (11.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 11.50 BB

hemstock · #2 12-01-2005, 10:35 AM

Why are you waiting for the turn to raise? I'd check behind the river as well.

PygmyHero · #3 12-01-2005, 12:26 PM

If you wish, there's a summary at the bottom, starting from the bold heading, "Summary."

[ QUOTE ]
Why are you waiting for the turn to raise? I'd check behind the river as well.

[/ QUOTE ]
I did consider raising the flop, but I thought it better to wait and raise a safe turn card. There are many cards which really hurt my hand on the turn, and I felt this was a case of foregoing an equity edge (on the flop) to push a significantly larger one if I get a safe turn.

First of all, let’s note that protecting my hand is irrelevant on both streets. If I raise the flop, the BB has 12:1 on a call (with UTG still to act), and if I wait to raise the turn he has 9.5:1 (again, with UTG still to act). The only hands that ‘should’ fold in that spot are unimproved undercards. So if I’m going to put more money in the pot, I think I need to be doing it for value.

I ran some numbers through twodimes, making what I felt where reasonable assumptions about my opponents hands. To err on the conservative side, I tried to create situations as collectively favorable to ‘the field’ as possible. Specifically, I did not reverse dominate either or them, and they did not duplicate each others outs. For simplicity, and to compensate, I am going to disallow backdoor draws.

BB: he has UI overs or a pocket pair. For now I will assume the BB has UI overs, addressing the pocket pair possibility later. Specifically, I will give him AK, though AQ would not really alter these numbers.

UTG: he has a straight and/or flush draw.

I have formatted these numbers to read as the hand, followed by the percentage of times that hand will win.

Interestingly, my equity is mostly dependent on the quality of UTG’s draw.

Scenario 1. UTG has only a gut shot (best case scenario):
As Kc 22.37
6s Td 23.81
Jd 9d 53.82

Scenario 2. UTG has an OESD or a flush draw. Note that my equity is virtually unaltered regardless of which draw it is; it mostly affects the BB’s equity:
As Kc 20.38
8s Td 34.77
Jd 9d 44.85

As Kc 14.06
Qh 5h 43.19
Jd 9d 42.75

Scenario 3. UTG has a flush draw and a gut shot:
As Kc 12.74
Th 6h 49.28
Jd 9d 37.98

Scenario 4. UTG has a straight flush draw (worst case scenario):
As Kc 11.85
Th 8h 55.48
Jd 9d 32.67

So my average equity is 42.42% if all hands are equally likely. But of course there are many hands UTG can have that fall under scenario two, a few hands for scenarios one and three, but only one hand for scenario four (OTOH he is more likely to have Th8h than Th6h, etc.). Let’s estimate my pot equity at 45%.

But now look what happens when I run the same hands but include the turn blank:

Scenario 1.
As Kc 14.29
6s Td 16.67
Jd 9d 69.05

Scenario 2.
As Kc 14.29
8s Td 23.81
Jd 9d 61.90

As Kc 9.52
Qh 5h 28.57
Jd 9d 61.90

Scenario 3.
As Kc 9.52
Th 6h 35.71
Jd 9d 54.76

Scenario 4.
As Kc 9.52
Th 8h 40.48
Jd 9d 50.00

Again, the average equity here is 59.52% if all hands are equally likely. Let’s say that it’s 60% (because that will be sufficient to support my conclusion), but it is probably higher.

45% equity on the flop, 60% on the turn…

THAT’S A 33% RISE IN EQUITY!

I am now pushing a much larger edge with my turn raise. So my chances of winning have increased dramatically, and I am getting bigger bets in the pot (than if I had raised the flop).

Okay, now what if the BB has a big pocket pair? Well, I don’t think he can 3 bet the turn – the paired board should slow him down. He’s thinking, ‘of course a 7 would wait to raise the turn.’ If he does have a big pocket, I clearly lose, and if the BB called the turn raise with AK, he will certainly call a river bet when he pairs.

The K clearly doesn’t complete any draws, so I can’t imagine getting a call if UTG now has a busted draw.

To me, these factors make the river a check through.

Summary:

I wait to raise the turn because
1. I have a much better chance of winning the pot,
2. The bets I’m getting in are twice as big, and
3. Something I didn’t mention yet is that I think I’ve made UTG’s hand easier to read.

As the hand played out, when it’s my action on the turn, I don’t really fear that UTG is slowplaying a 7 (that is, my read of UTG having a draw and not a 7 gets stronger).

If I just call the flop:
Because the flop is just called, BB is encouraged to bet his hand again on the turn. Most people UTG with a 7 would raise the turn, instead of going for the overcall. So if UTG raises, I can probably bail. If not, I can be pretty confident he doesn’t have a 7.

If I raise the flop:
I probably get checked to on the turn. I bet and everyone just calls because it’s a huge pot. However, if UTG has a 7, my flop raise gives him a great opportunity to check raise the whole field (i.e. all two of us) on the turn.

To me the turn raise is a case of risking one extra big bet to win a monster pot.

I admit that I may be completely misapplying some SSH concepts here, and if so, I would appreciate any edification.

Spicymoose · #4 12-01-2005, 01:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If you wish, there's a summary at the bottom, starting from the bold heading, "Summary."

[ QUOTE ]
Why are you waiting for the turn to raise? I'd check behind the river as well.

[/ QUOTE ]
I did consider raising the flop, but I thought it better to wait and raise a safe turn card. There are many cards which really hurt my hand on the turn, and I felt this was a case of foregoing an equity edge (on the flop) to push a significantly larger one if I get a safe turn.

First of all, let’s note that protecting my hand is irrelevant on both streets. If I raise the flop, the BB has 12:1 on a call (with UTG still to act), and if I wait to raise the turn he has 9.5:1 (again, with UTG still to act). The only hands that ‘should’ fold in that spot are unimproved undercards. So if I’m going to put more money in the pot, I think I need to be doing it for value.

I ran some numbers through twodimes, making what I felt where reasonable assumptions about my opponents hands. To err on the conservative side, I tried to create situations as collectively favorable to ‘the field’ as possible. Specifically, I did not reverse dominate either or them, and they did not duplicate each others outs. For simplicity, and to compensate, I am going to disallow backdoor draws.

BB: he has UI overs or a pocket pair. For now I will assume the BB has UI overs, addressing the pocket pair possibility later. Specifically, I will give him AK, though AQ would not really alter these numbers.

UTG: he has a straight and/or flush draw.

I have formatted these numbers to read as the hand, followed by the percentage of times that hand will win.

Interestingly, my equity is mostly dependent on the quality of UTG’s draw.

Scenario 1. UTG has only a gut shot (best case scenario):
As Kc 22.37
6s Td 23.81
Jd 9d 53.82

Scenario 2. UTG has an OESD or a flush draw. Note that my equity is virtually unaltered regardless of which draw it is; it mostly affects the BB’s equity:
As Kc 20.38
8s Td 34.77
Jd 9d 44.85

As Kc 14.06
Qh 5h 43.19
Jd 9d 42.75

Scenario 3. UTG has a flush draw and a gut shot:
As Kc 12.74
Th 6h 49.28
Jd 9d 37.98

Scenario 4. UTG has a straight flush draw (worst case scenario):
As Kc 11.85
Th 8h 55.48
Jd 9d 32.67

So my average equity is 42.42% if all hands are equally likely. But of course there are many hands UTG can have that fall under scenario two, a few hands for scenarios one and three, but only one hand for scenario four (OTOH he is more likely to have Th8h than Th6h, etc.). Let’s estimate my pot equity at 45%.

But now look what happens when I run the same hands but include the turn blank:

Scenario 1.
As Kc 14.29
6s Td 16.67
Jd 9d 69.05

Scenario 2.
As Kc 14.29
8s Td 23.81
Jd 9d 61.90

As Kc 9.52
Qh 5h 28.57
Jd 9d 61.90

Scenario 3.
As Kc 9.52
Th 6h 35.71
Jd 9d 54.76

Scenario 4.
As Kc 9.52
Th 8h 40.48
Jd 9d 50.00

Again, the average equity here is 59.52% if all hands are equally likely. Let’s say that it’s 60% (because that will be sufficient to support my conclusion), but it is probably higher.

45% equity on the flop, 60% on the turn…

THAT’S A 33% RISE IN EQUITY!

I am now pushing a much larger edge with my turn raise. So my chances of winning have increased dramatically, and I am getting bigger bets in the pot (than if I had raised the flop).

Okay, now what if the BB has a big pocket pair? Well, I don’t think he can 3 bet the turn – the paired board should slow him down. He’s thinking, ‘of course a 7 would wait to raise the turn.’ If he does have a big pocket, I clearly lose, and if the BB called the turn raise with AK, he will certainly call a river bet when he pairs.

The K clearly doesn’t complete any draws, so I can’t imagine getting a call if UTG now has a busted draw.

To me, these factors make the river a check through.

Summary:

I wait to raise the turn because
1. I have a much better chance of winning the pot,
2. The bets I’m getting in are twice as big, and
3. Something I didn’t mention yet is that I think I’ve made UTG’s hand easier to read.

As the hand played out, when it’s my action on the turn, I don’t really fear that UTG is slowplaying a 7 (that is, my read of UTG having a draw and not a 7 gets stronger).

If I just call the flop:
Because the flop is just called, BB is encouraged to bet his hand again on the turn. Most people UTG with a 7 would raise the turn, instead of going for the overcall. So if UTG raises, I can probably bail. If not, I can be pretty confident he doesn’t have a 7.

If I raise the flop:
I probably get checked to on the turn. I bet and everyone just calls because it’s a huge pot. However, if UTG has a 7, my flop raise gives him a great opportunity to check raise the whole field (i.e. all two of us) on the turn.

To me the turn raise is a case of risking one extra big bet to win a monster pot.

I admit that I may be completely misapplying some SSH concepts here, and if so, I would appreciate any edification.

[/ QUOTE ]

Arn't you making a pretty big assumption in assuming he will always bet the turn? Against 3 opponents, I don't think he bets the turn that often.

PygmyHero · #5 12-01-2005, 01:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Arn't you making a pretty big assumption in assuming he will always bet the turn? Against 3 opponents, I don't think he bets the turn that often.

[/ QUOTE ]
Sorry, I didn't mean to imply that I'm assuming BB will always bet the turn, though I'm hoping he will (so I can see if UTG raises or not).

But I do think the BB will bet the turn quite a bit here. If he has an overpair he almost certainly will, possibly even an underpair. If he has AK or AQ, I think he has to take another shot. There's a not insignificant chance his A high is still best (remember with the paired board only 5 cards in his opponents hand can hurt have A high beat) - the board is extremely draw heavy so he doesn't have to assume his A is behind.

MrWookie47 · #6 12-01-2005, 01:33 PM

Of course he'll bet that turn with AA. The question is not how often he'll bet the turn, it's how often he'll bet the turn with a hand that you beat. Since that probability is smaller than you may think, and since your equity on the flop is larger than your post gave it, I think I'm in the raise the flop camp.

Spicymoose · #7 12-01-2005, 01:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Arn't you making a pretty big assumption in assuming he will always bet the turn? Against 3 opponents, I don't think he bets the turn that often.

[/ QUOTE ]
Sorry, I didn't mean to imply that I'm assuming BB will always bet the turn, though I'm hoping he will (so I can see if UTG raises or not).

But I do think the BB will bet the turn quite a bit here. If he has an overpair he almost certainly will, possibly even an underpair. If he has AK or AQ, I think he has to take another shot. There's a not insignificant chance his A high is still best (remember with the paired board only 5 cards in his opponents hand can hurt have A high beat) - the board is extremely draw heavy so he doesn't have to assume his A is behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

If an overpair bets the turn, and you are raising, that is bad news for you. Most underpairs don't raise like that from the BB. He may bet other holdings, but against 3 opponents, and way OOP, a lot of people don't bet again. Plenty of times he is checking the turn, and then you don't get to raise. This is why I prefer a flop raise.

Greg J · #8 12-01-2005, 01:43 PM

I tend to think that it's better to raise the flop than wait for the turn as well. What range of hands is villian leading both the flop and the turn that hero beats? I guess I can contrive a few, though supposing this (in the form of UI overs) is IMO a tad optimistic.

The point: there are many times when BB won't bet out on the turn, but when he does yr equity is very likely not to have gone up. That is why I like raising the flop here.

PygmyHero · #9 12-01-2005, 01:52 PM

Interesting...it looks like everyone raises the flop.

I have a follow up question:

Are you folding if the turn is a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or an A, K, or Q? Please answer for if you are donked, and if you are cr-ed if they are different.

To clarify: I am not necessarily implying that the answer to this question is predicated on whether or not you raised the flop.

jba · #10 12-01-2005, 12:34 PM

raise preflop?

damn I've been saying that a lot lately.