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Old 12-30-2005, 07:33 AM
Jake (The Snake) Jake (The Snake) is offline
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Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 93
Default Punishing Autopilot TAGs

So, recently I was able to test something that I have been thinking about a bit. The situation occurs when you are heads up and out of position against a TAG. I started writing down a bunch of EV calcs and figured I might as well post it:

All fold to MP2 who raises. All fold to Hero in the BB who calls with Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. The flop comes
J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Hero checks, and MP2 bets.

Now, before you fold or call and c/f the turn in situations like this, consider how often you will get your opponent to fold to a checkraise. A typical range for this TAG might be 77+, A8s+, AT+, KTs+, KJ+, QTs+, JTs. We will assume that TAG calls or raises your checkraise with all sets and pairs jack or better, folds now with everything else 40% of the time, and calls but check/folds the turn with everything else 60% of the time unless he hits*. We will also assume we give up if it gets to the river and will ignore times when we hit.

Altogether, we end up winning right away about 24%, win on the turn 26%, and lose 50% of the time (to figure this out you need to do math on the combos and how often villain hits on the turn). Further, we will assume that TAG waits until the turn to raise his pair or better 50% of the time. This breaks the 50% loss down into 20% and 30% (it’s not equal because part of that 50% comes from when villain hits on the turn).

The pot is currently 5.5 SB. So if the above estimate is true, we

win 5.5 SB 24% = 1.32
win 6.5 SB 26% = 1.69
lose 2 SB 20% = (.40)
lose 4 SB 30% = (1.20)

For an EV of 1.41 SB, which is a ton to be giving up. Remember, we didn’t even consider the times when we hit ourselves. So it appears that checkraising against TAGs who are unwilling to go to the river with ace high can be VERY profitable.

In my opinion, this kind of strategy should work great against most TAGs, especially the multi-tabling bonus whores who really do not know what they're doing. They know checkraises mean strong hands, so they fold and move on. You might even be able to pull it off multiple times before they catch on.

Clearly this play can be used more often in shorthanded games. In full games, you should probably be careful to make sure you aren't doing this against an UTG raiser, for example, because their hand range is too restricted to hands that aren't folding. However, I certainly think there are certainly situations where doing this can be very profitable.

Some things to look for:

1. How often the TAG folds and any history you have with him.
2. The board texture. You are less/more likely to get folds on certain boards.
3. The TAGs hand range. What position is he in, what was the preflop action like?
4. Hero's hand. Is it possible you are ahead or will pull ahead?

And if you need one more reason to do this, remember that bluffing is fun. Now just don't do it against me [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] .

I know this post is nothing new, but it’s been a while since I saw a post concerned with this specifically and I wonder how much most small stakes readers use this as a weapon. I also wonder how far off my assumptions are for the “average” TAG.

Some more good reads related to this are this Ed Miller article from the 2+2 Internet Magazine and this Ulysses thread from the HUSH archive. Both links have relevant examples as well.


* I define “hitting” as any pair or straight/flush draw.
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