Sooga was sweating me when I folded

[Josh W]

I was playing 40-80 at commerce a few days ago. Sooga was sweating me for this hand. After the hand, he told me he was gonna post it.

Game is alright. I openraise on the button (unusual), have a medium tight, medium aggressive image. SB threebets, BB calls, I call.

Oh, wait. My hand is KTo, forgot that at first.

Three of us to the flop of J97, two spades. I have no spades. SB bets, BB calls, I raise, SB 3-bets, BB calls, I call.

SB is very aggressive. He could have as little as 88 here, or as much as JJ. BB is very passive. He never bluffs and misses a few bets, but otherwise plays okay.

SB's 3-bet preflop means big cards or any pocket pair. I hvae an overcard, and a double gutter.

Turn is Qc, putting two spades and two clubs on the board, all the while giving me the nutstraight.

SB bets, BB calls, I raise, both call. Board is QJ97. River is Ts, completing the flush. SB checks, BB bets, I turbo muck (don't even contemplate), and SB mucks.

Sooga saw the hand and couldn't believe it. He said I had to be damn sure he didn't have a King. Well, in reality I only needed to be 87% sure he didn't have a king, since I could then only chop. Plus, I need to put him on a hand on the flop where he has a K. KJ and KQ maybe, but he raises the flop with KJ (assuming he calls preflop with it).

yada yada yada, blah blah blah, my second consecutive post about a tricky-ish river decision. I played this hand better than the AQs. This time I didn't put in any money on the river when I "Knew" I was beat. neato.

Josh

[mike l.]

i think your fold on the river in this case is horrible. i think there's a very good chance bb has a K given the way the hand went down. flush also quite possible too, but this one is a pay off and it's not close.

[Josh W]

When sooga told me he was gonna post this, I told him to make sure he accurately portrayed just how passive SB was. If you saw him, you woulda laughed at me for calling. He never bet. Ever.

Thus we see the limited usefulness of this forum. On tough decisions, if you aren't there, you can't make the decision (I don't mean 'you' as in mike l., so much as 'the reader').

The only reason to call him would be if I was on tilt. And that's hardly a reason at all.

Josh

[Gabe]

I talked to the guy who was in the BB. He told me he had 98, and thought he would have to call anyway.

[Josh W]

musta been a different guy [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

seriously...this guy NEVER bet. An example....

He calls a raise in BB w/ T2c in a 5 way pot. Flop 987, two clubs. He check/calls. Turn is 5c, giving him flush. He bets, gets two callers

River is an offsuit 6. board is 98765, with three (not 4) clubs. He checks, there's a bet and he calls, closing the action.

I raise w/ AK he calls in BB w/ AQ. Flop AQx...he check/calls whole way.

HE NEVER BETS.

Then, he bet when the flush got there. You still like your straight? not me. Unless we're playing with monopoly money.

Josh

[shemp]

I hope the fruitplate was both tasty and refreshing.

On Tuesday I'd been playing with someone I read as an absurdly passive player in 15-30 who bet out into 4 people when a flush completed on an A47T2 board, so I folded KK, obviously. He ended up losing a 21 big bet pot to some guy with 45o, and ultimately, a sore dick. Apparently the absurdly passive player thought K9o was the nuts.

[mikelow]

AK is unlikely, but I would worry about a flush. Still I'm paying off.

[James282]

Hi Josh - that is 1 problem with these forums. This hand reminds me of the hand mike l. pulled out of the archives posted by Three Bet Brett(snakehead as I'm sure you know). So he was heads up against a very tricky player and had T8 of hearts, The flop came ace high with two hearts. The opponent made it four bets on the flop and at this point snakehead made it 5 bets, and alleged that he "knew" his opponent(who was actually quite tricky and not predictable) had exactly the nut flush draw. He therefore said he would continue betting fiercely unless the flush came, his flush! One can only assume that he would have folded if she bet. The flush never got there, and he took down a hansom pot with 10 high. Forget the math a second folks. "Sometimes the lightbulb goes on, and sometimes it doesn't". Nice hand Josh - and a great read as usual.
-James

[shemp]

~20 years ago I sat down to play in 4/8 (I think) game at the Hilton in Vegas. My first game. I was afraid to raise with AA before the flop, because I figured everybody would know my hand. I was afraid to bet the nut flush on the river, because I figured that noone could possibly call when the 3 club game, but maybe they would bet.

In the same game I bluff 3-bet the river against someone who appeared to be, and over the years proved to be, a pro, or, at least, daily winner in those games. I dragged a very big pot. As dumb as I was, I understood that to win the pot, everybody had to throw their hand away, and that since I hadn't been goofy all night, here was my chance. Mind-reading is a tricky business, and it sometimes gets trickier when people are more disoriented at the table, rather than less.

[mike l.]

"When sooga told me he was gonna post this, I told him to make sure he accurately portrayed just how passive SB was'

the bb you mean right? how can you rely on sooga to explain how passive the bb is when you didnt even do an adequate job yourself?

you said:

"BB is very passive. He never bluffs and misses a few bets, but otherwise plays okay."

but then you said in your reply to me:

"If you saw him, you woulda laughed at me for calling. He never bet. Ever."

so in one case you describe a player who has a problem being too passive and missing bets here and there, and then you change it and defend yourself by saying he's a complete rock in the passivity dept., in other words his passiveness is a major flaw that keeps him from betting a straight on that river ever given the three flush, and in fact he never bets without the stone cold nuts.

so first you say it's gray, then you say later no it's definitely pitch black. im not buying it. i think the guy may bet a K here otherwise you wouldnt have posted in the first place.