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Old 12-25-2005, 04:06 AM
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Default Basing Decisions on Pot odds???

Ever since I was brand new, I've had some problems with Pot Odds, but now that I know alot more about it, one thing really has me wondering about this concept.

Say I have A,Q suited (spades) on the button, one player has limped I raise 4 times BB ($10), get one caller the limper (tight aggressive player), SB and BB fold

flop comes beautifully for me (or so I think) Ad, Qd, Js

I flop top two pair, my opponent bets the pot ($95) so now I have to call $95 to win $190, I'm getting 2 to 1 on my money with top two pair, how can I not call it, right??? How can I not be more than 33% to win???

Here are the hands that my opponent can have and if I knew I wouldn't be calling quite so fast

Pocket AA he's 95/5 favorite or 19 to 1
Pocket QQ he's 86/14 favorite
Pocket JJ, he's 78/22 favorite
K,10 the same 78/22

against any two diamonds like (6,5) I'm a 67/33 favorite, but against 10,9d I'm only 51/49

Really the only hands that I'll be significantly favored against other than a flush draw are pocket KK, 10s, or A-J, Q-J,

Pocket AA, QQ, JJ, K,10 I almost can't win, but I'll be getting "the correct pot odds" to do so, How can pot odds factor into this decision without being so misleading? any ideas???

Pocket JJ is a very plausible hand my opponent could have made those bets with, limp but than call a reraise, make a pot size bet out of position on the flop, most likely fearing a flush or straight draw. With A,Q I'm dead in the water (practically), but I'll have pot odds on my side, whatever that's worth
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