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  #11  
Old 08-08-2005, 03:57 PM
Big_Jim Big_Jim is offline
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Default Re: ub 50-100 river checkraise #1

I really hate betting the turn here. If you get c/red, you have to drop.
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  #12  
Old 08-08-2005, 04:07 PM
Big_Jim Big_Jim is offline
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Default Re: ub 50-100 river checkraise #1

I am simply shocked by the number of replies telling you to bet the turn.

I think we've had like 23984 hands on here recently where somebody got c/red on the turn with a big draw, and everybody and their mother told them to check behind.

This is a classic spot where we're either way ahead or behind with a good draw to improve to the best hand. If we get c/red here, we throw up in our mouth and have to fold.

I love the turn check, but I'm unsure of the river.

Your line screams flush draw, so it's not too surprizing that villian would check to you with a big hand, planning a c/r, figuring that you'll just fold to a bet anyway. On the other hand, villian has no reason to figure that you can call this bet, so a bluff becomes more likely.

Villian has to be bluffing here an awful lot to make this a good call.
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  #13  
Old 08-08-2005, 04:07 PM
cero_z cero_z is offline
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Default Re: ub 50-100 river checkraise #1

Hi capn,

[ QUOTE ]
People regularly make pot bets at higher stakes, so it's just opponent dependent. You can't just say that "if he had something good, he wouldn't bet so big".

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't just say that. I said, [he probably thinks cwl doesn't have much, and given that, it doesn't make sense that he'd make a large bet with a good hand]. The two statements are very different.
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  #14  
Old 08-08-2005, 04:15 PM
pofi pofi is offline
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Default Re: ub 50-100 river checkraise #1

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm interested to know the thought process behind the turn check.

Marlow

[/ QUOTE ]

a good percentage of the time im winning on the turn and he is drawing fairly thin. when i check the turn i think i stand a very good chance of getting a pottish sized bet on the river, either when he bluffs at it or when i make a bet that looks a lot like me betting a busted draw. this also minimizes the risks of getting bet off my hand or putting in too much with a second best hand. my hand is good enough that i dont really need to make him fold but not good enough that i want to catch a ton of heat.

[/ QUOTE ]
If so, the river call is mandatory as I think
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  #15  
Old 08-08-2005, 04:39 PM
neon neon is offline
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Default Re: ub 50-100 river checkraise #1

[ QUOTE ]
It's much more likely in my mind that he has nothing, but is afraid you have a bigger nothing, like an Ace-high busted flush draw.


[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. And I call. Is he really checking the river w/ a hand that beats yours? I mean, he has no reason whatsoever to think that you have a hand that will pay off his river CR that he's beating, does he? And if he had, say A9, or 1010/JJ/QQ, whatever, isn't he just check-calling the river to induce a bluff from your potentially busted draw? Unless this guy's quite a lot trickier than your working assumption, I call expecting to win a healthy percentage of the time here.
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  #16  
Old 08-08-2005, 04:43 PM
Marlow Marlow is offline
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Default Re: ub 50-100 river checkraise #1

Ok. I'm dying for the results.

Marlow
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  #17  
Old 08-08-2005, 04:46 PM
Ulysses Ulysses is offline
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Default Re: ub 50-100 river checkraise #1

[ QUOTE ]
if it's Michael Thuritz, he's far from newish/bad

[/ QUOTE ]

When do these Swedes start playing high-stakes poker? 12?

Swede
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  #18  
Old 08-08-2005, 05:15 PM
theBruiser500 theBruiser500 is offline
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Default Re: ub 50-100 river checkraise #1

the turn check makes particularly good sense vs. a player like thuritz (i agree with your analyasis of him cwl) who is probably not calling the turn, he is folding or raising.

cero z i disagree with your thought process. if thuritiz though CWL busted out on a draw he wouldn't need to make a full pot size c/r he would c/r less so his big bet size is not an indictation of weakness imo it is of strength. he went for a turn c/r and missed, then got smart and made the river c/r getting the bet out of CWL and also playing tricky maybe inducing a call, so you should disappoint him and fold.
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  #19  
Old 08-08-2005, 05:40 PM
Jocke_F Jocke_F is offline
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Default Re: ub 50-100 river checkraise #1

I don't know what he would do, but I would fire again on the turn with a draw on this board and with the given preflop action. To me this looks like a turn check-raise gone wrong, and he figured out how to make a smart river play with a big hand that might just get paid of, since it will be so hard to put him on a made hand.
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  #20  
Old 08-08-2005, 05:52 PM
neon neon is offline
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Default Re: ub 50-100 river checkraise #1

With what hands is villain going for a river CR after whiffing one on the turn?
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