Turn semi-bluff raise

I was discussing this hand with a friend and we disagreed on my turn play...I was just hoping for some more insight.

Paradise 10/20 5 max


Preflop: Hero is Button with J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises, SB folds, 1 fold, BB calls.

Flop: (4.5 SB) Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img](2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB raises, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.25 BB) 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero raises...

[josh1122]

Post reads when you post a hand.

If this raise can get your opponent to fold a better hand then I think it's worthwhile but without a read (I will assume you had none) its hard to tell so I think I just call.

[poker1O1]

given the way you've played it, against an unknown, i'd probably just call, but I would originally 3bet the flop for a free card.

[dave44]

I like it as long as you think BB will check-raise the flop with those small pairs and might let them go to your raise.

This was my first round at the table so i didnt really have any reads. I didn't three bet the flop so that if i hit my flush i could raise the turn...is this a bad idea in general?
also, the reason i raised the turn was so he would fold a weak hand on the river. my friend told me to call turn and if i thought he was weak then to raise river. I dunno

[dave44]

If you'd be raising your strong hands on the turn rather than the river (which I'd generally recommend) then your semi-bluff will be much more effective on the turn.

[sweetjazz]

Umm, it is okay to just call the turn and fold the river UI. That's my default line, especially in the first orbit at a new table.

Players call down too much -- there's a good chance BB will call down with a pair of 3s and no kicker or even an ace high gutshot. Players especially call down too much at first because they are afraid you are a bluffer.

Wait for a better opportunity for a semibluff when you have reason to believe you have some fold equity.

[ArturiusX]

I like this with position, for a few reasons..

1) This is the biggest sign of strength in an agro game, just calling a flop raise then coming back on the turn. Even bad players still fold here often.

2) We look like a psycho draw raiser, which is only good for the meta game.

3) This card is very innocuios (is that how the words spelt?), and he'll be crapping himself that we're raising this.

[johnnycakes]

I don't like this turn raise with J high. I'd like it much more with an A high hand. (more outs, small showdown value). With A high, you can check river unimproved. With J high you have to bet the river (if you think you have any chance of getting the opponent to fold), and this is borderline spewing.

[sweetjazz]

[ QUOTE ]
I like this with position, for a few reasons..

1) This is the biggest sign of strength in an agro game, just calling a flop raise then coming back on the turn. Even bad players still fold here often.



[/ QUOTE ]

I think you are overestimating how often people fold here, but I agree that you do probably have some fold equity.

[ QUOTE ]


2) We look like a psycho draw raiser, which is only good for the meta game.



[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, it is good for meta game if the opponent doesn't call down too much already, which is only a relatively small sample of the typical 10/20 player. (I'm extrapolating from the same limit at other sites that I play more frequently.) I definitely want to be applying pressure with my draws in future hands depending on my read, but I think most early encounters end up going to showdown -- if for no other reason than the player (either consciously or subconsciously) wants to know what you are raising in that spot. I don't think the metagame benefit is enough to compensate for the reduced (though nonzero) fold equity.

[ QUOTE ]


3) This card is very innocuios (is that how the words spelt?), and he'll be crapping himself that we're raising this.

[/ QUOTE ]

I seriously doubt this. Only good players are thinking at this level. Most players are suspicious that you are making a move because the board is not scary. I don't claim to be a particularly good player, but there's no way if I am villain that I am thinking what you suggest about an unknown in this spot. (BTW, I think it's spelled 'innocuous' but I could be wrong.) If you have J3 and the betting sequence goes as above, are you worried more about a Q43-8 board or a K93-A board?

I don't think raising the turn is awful here, but I think waiting for a better spot will (1) increase your EV on this hand in question and (2) increase (or at least not decrease) your future folding equity in later hands.