MLB 10-25 & NFL TEASER

SheVegas1972 · #1 10-25-2005, 03:07 PM

I love this site, and will say that after reading all the great info for the last 2 months, I feel it is time for me to start adding in my 2 cents. I will write about why I pick games the way I do. I will be honest you are all probably better then me, but I want to get into the fun. My reasoning behind my picks is not based on stats or + _ EV it is based on who I think will win and why. I figure it is my $ and if I am going to lose I want to blame myself, and when I win I want to feel like a King, for the moment. I am not a huge gambler, and my units are based on 25$. I have done very well so far this year and am ready to begin my YTD record on this site.
ASTROS and SOX Under 7- 1 Unit.....I am riding the O-Train tonight. The Astros want the dome closed, good ol' Bud Selig said no and the roof will be open. I feel that after 2 high scoring games this will be close and the Stros win 4-1.

2-Team Teaser Steelers-2.5 and Ne -1.5 5 units
2-Team Teaser Cowboys-2 Cinncy -1.5 5 Units

Get on these now because I feel the Steelers line will be up to 10 real soon.
YTD- 0-0-0

#2 10-25-2005, 03:27 PM

Thanks for the picks SheVegas. I have many of the same teaser plays as you. I think there's a lot of good teasing opportunities this week with many good teams at home needing wins playing bad teams. NE, Pitt, Carolina, Dallas, and Cincy are all good teasing teams in my opinion. I usually only take 2 team teasers but I even threw all of them together for a large one this week (and included the falcons from last night).

I also like Washington and NYG to play a close game, so thinking of teasing Washington to +9, but that number isnt as good as the other ones.

#3 10-25-2005, 04:39 PM

Are these 6-pt teasers? Good on ya to get the Steelers -2.5 and Dallas -2; by the time my site had the lines posted, they were both above three. Say what you will about your methodology, but if those are 6-pt teasers paying even money, then I'd say those bets are definitely +EV. I'm teasing Cinci and the Pats myself.

SheVegas1972 · #4 10-25-2005, 05:27 PM

Shamu- Just my 2 cents but be carefull of teasing Carolina...I just have a gut feeling that after Minny came back against GB they might start playing up to their potential. I would go with Pitt Cincy Dallas New England and the Broncos in a teaser.....Broncos getting 3.5. I really think Philly is overrated because of their lack of running game and McNabbs injury. Also playing in Dever, instead of the usual +3 for the home team I give them a +6, I truly feel it is the toughest home field in the NFL this year.

SheVegas1972 · #5 10-25-2005, 05:29 PM

LEV- These are 7 point teasers, I should have posted that sorry......I didn't want to take Pitt at -3.5 because I bet 5 units on it so I took the 7 point tease. Thanks for your response.

#6 10-25-2005, 05:49 PM

Cmon, Mike Tice will be on my side in the Carolina game. How can I lose?

SheVegas1972 · #7 10-25-2005, 10:33 PM

Sorry guys on the baseball pick, my first and last pick on baseball ever...Anyways if anyone trys my teasers good luck, look for more of my picks later in the week.
YTD Football 0-0-0
Baseball 0-1-0
-1 unit

#8 10-26-2005, 04:18 AM

I like SD teased at home too, tough matchup for the chiefs I cant see SD losing. Carolina should be a good one too dont get swayed too much by the vikes win last week. OF course, the 4 you mentioned are the best by far.

#9 10-26-2005, 11:43 AM

Interesting. I haven't played 7-pointers before, and without the payout information I can't make an EV calc, but I think you're definitely looking at the right games. This is a very good week for teasers, with a lot of 3-to-7 crosses, including three strong faves at home, four if you include Pittsburgh.

I don't share your hesitancy about Carolina, though I would agree that they've never inspired a lot of confidence in their wins. The Vikings, however, were truly atrocious in the first half last Sunday, and all that changed was that they managed to get their offense going, at home, against Green Bay. A lot of people thought that Minny had turned the corner after they drubbed New Orleans at home in week 3. There are still huge issues with these guys, like the O-line's inability to protect Culpepper, or any of the off-field hoopla. I see the air coming right out of these guys once they leave Minnesota and find themselves up against a competent squad. Carolina teased to -1.5 or -0.5 is quite attractive.

Daliman · #10 10-26-2005, 01:48 PM

As long as you are still crossing 3 and 7, 7 point teasers are still inherently good bets, and better with home teams.