How do you guys go on such insane downswings?

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You don't understand math.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have a master's degree in it actually, lol.

[Ulysses]

Many of the guys who go on big downswings don't play as well as they think and tilt really hard to boot.

Others play great and maximize their EV in every hand, pushing very thin edges that result in a high-variance, high earn style. When these guys run bad, they lose a lot more than someone who plays a less high-variance style, but in the long run they earn more.

[albedoa]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You don't understand math.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have a master's degree in it actually, lol.

[/ QUOTE ]

So then you can tell us honestly that you do make more than 200 BB per month on average?

[dogmeat]

I'm inspired to never have a a downswing of any proportion again - obviously I'm a bad player. Right now I am three tabling $5/$10 Stud, and in the last 15 minutes I have started five hands with aces or kings, and lost all five by the river. FWIF, I'm down 40 BB. I guess I just suck.

Dogmeat [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

[WhiteWolf]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You don't understand math.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have a master's degree in it actually, lol.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you have a master's degree in math, and you understand how much variance there is in poker, the idea of a 200BB downswing should be easy for you to grasp.

Use some sample numbers of a 2BB/100 hand win rate and a 15BB/100 hand standard deviation (typical numbers for a winning limit player). Over 5000 hands (50 * 100), you would expect a win rate of 100BB, and a standard deviation of 15 * sqrt(50) = 106 BB. A 200 BB downswing over 5000 hands would only be a 2.8 standard deviation event - rare, but not extrodinarily so. For players who play hundreds of thousands of hands per year, it would not be too unusual to encounter a 200 BB downswing.

[ QUOTE ]
Many of the guys who go on big downswings don't play as well as they think and tilt really hard to boot.

Others play great and maximize their EV in every hand, pushing very thin edges that result in a high-variance, high earn style. When these guys run bad, they lose a lot more than someone who plays a less high-variance style, but in the long run they earn more.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's an interesting response, thank you.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You don't understand math.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have a master's degree in it actually, lol.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you have a master's degree in math, and you understand how much variance there is in poker, the idea of a 200BB downswing should be easy for you to grasp.

Use some sample numbers of a 2BB/100 hand win rate and a 15BB/100 hand standard deviation (typical numbers for a winning limit player). Over 5000 hands (50 * 100), you would expect a win rate of 100BB, and a standard deviation of 15 * sqrt(50) = 106 BB. A 200 BB downswing over 5000 hands would only be a 2.8 standard deviation event - rare, but not extrodinarily so. For players who play hundreds of thousands of hands per year, it would not be too unusual to encounter a 200 BB downswing.

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If you change your BB/100 assumption to 3+, that's what I was expecting most expert players around here won. If it isn't, and the real number is more like 2/100, then yes, I should expect to see more of these downswings posted about I suppose. That having been said, it is still a rare enough event that I wouldn't have expected to see it posted about so often here. I think it must be a combination of poor players who don't realize it, the high-variance style Diablo posted about, the sheer number of people posting here, and tilt that results in so many posts about downswings. Plus, poker players are easily the world's biggest whiners. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

Maybe I shouldn't be so paranoid about it, but damn if reading these boards doesn't make me a bit jittery sometimes.

[Arnfinn Madsen]

[ QUOTE ]
Many of the guys who go on big downswings don't play as well as they think and tilt really hard to boot.

Others play great and maximize their EV in every hand, pushing very thin edges that result in a high-variance, high earn style. When these guys run bad, they lose a lot more than someone who plays a less high-variance style, but in the long run they earn more.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you just perfectly summed it up. I played 3-handed versus two good aggressive opponents where the decisions always felt marginal and the swings were big even if I had a small edge. One of them then ran bad, followed by semi-tilting and it was easy to see how even semi-tilting made his -EV tremendous.

[James282]

Very large downswings happen to the best players in online poker whether exacerbated by tilt or not. You have been fortunate not to run bad, and your win rate likely reflects that. Someday you will have a 300+ bb downswing, and you'll realize that your old winrate was inflated slightly. It won't make you any less or more of a player, but you will realize how cruel this game can be. Think about it, if you admit to not being world class, but world class player/author David Sklansky has both done math to prove the existence of and had downswings of 300 bb. Do you think that you have more knowledge of what is possible and likely than he does? If not, maybe you can start to admit to yourself that you have simply run very well and are likely not quite as good as your winrate and lack of downswings suggest.
-James

[imported_CaseClosed326]

I am not very good. Hence I loose money all the time.