AK on the Bubble

[Flopzilla]

B&M tournament, $300+30, 60 players, pays 11, down to 13.

Six handed at my table. I am SB, have T14000 after posting, am next to last place after being card dead for the last three or four rounds. Two big stacks, MP and the Button, have T45,000 and T80,000 respectively. Both are very LAG, and have been in just about every pot.

The hand:
Blinds are T200/400,100 ante. T1200 in the pot.
Two folds, MP limps, next folds, Button limps, I raise to T1500 with AsKc, BB folds, MP calls, Button calls. T5700 in pot.

Flop: Qc Ac 8h

I bet T3000, MP calls, button pushes allin.

The key:

Button is very well known to me, he will only push if he has a made hand or a good draw. He knows that I have TP or better.

MP is new to me, but has folded to a push twice previously this tourney.

What’s my play, and why?

[adanthar]

So button is LAG PF and tighter postflop? Would he do this with AJ? Is he smart enough to push trash on the bubble?

If the answer is 'yes, no, no', and he knows you have an ace and is pushing anyway, he either has something like J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or has you beat already.

[A_PLUS]

Generally, I am a pure mathematical player (online), but when I play live with friends who I play with often, it is all about being one level higher than them.

If I were the Villan, I would do this with any two cards, figuring you are more likely to have AK-AJ than AQ and will probably fold.


You have to be careful, you cant think that your oppenent 'knows' you have TP or better, without also assuming that he knows you will fold to a push without at least 2 pair.

[schwza]

with 2k in the pot and a 14k stack, i would probably push pre-flop. you might be letting them off the hook easy, but your hand will be very difficult to play post-flop out of position, especially since you'd rather not gamble now and risk bubbling. but your odds are very high of picking up the pot now if you push, so i'd do that.

[Flopzilla]

I thought it was a close call whether or not to push preflop.

Greed won out.

[joeboe2001]

I do not think you are going to get a better chance to move up. Don't fall for this sleazy attempt to intimidate your short stack--call.

[locutus2002]

Complicated.

There is only 1 good drawing hand JTc, so its more likely that he has a hand or is making a move. With MP in the pot I don't think he can make a move with less than a flush draw.

This is a dangerous board and MP would have reraised rather than slow play the winning hand. I think MP is folding here.
If MP is folding, then the pot is laying 2.5:1 and you only have to be 28% in the hand to make this CEV++.

I think his most likely holding is A8. AQ, and 88 are possible as are flush draws, but less likely as they would merit a raise BTF. The flush draw is possible because even if he doesn't have the king, he probably has hero made for top pair (so hero isn't on a flush draw).

Its a marginal call against A8, but given the possibility that villain is putting a move on with 2 clubs, I think its a call.

I would ignore the bubble. If you win this pot you will have T34,000 and be in the running to win the tournament.

[ihaveapigyo]

i would raise more than 1500 for one. i would probably raise to at least 3000, and you can still get away from the hand if you miss on the flop