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#11
06-14-2005, 03:09 PM
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Re: River Bluff
Ok maybe I need to explain my thinking better here. As far as I am concerned there isnt any debate on the previous streets. On the turn I have 4 outs to the gutshot, plus 3 overcard outs and my 8 is also possibly good. The pot is 6.5BB when I call and I have certainly decent implied odds for the 9, and an ace will make me the best hand almost every time as well. So really don't worry about the turn.
On the river a king came. If I have AQ I now have a straight, with AK or KQ I have top pair. All of these hands I would bet the river. Everyone so far is giving way too much credit for a jack in this spot. There are already two out there so I think villians most likely hands is a ten or a hand like 99. Whether its enough for them to fold profitably I don't know. -SmileyEH 
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#12
06-14-2005, 03:11 PM
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Re: River Bluff
[ QUOTE ]
I called the turn because I think I have about 8 or 9 outs. [/ QUOTE ] I understand that, and I would call here too. However, if I was planning on bluffing, I think a turn semi-bluff is much better than betting this river.
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#13
06-14-2005, 03:13 PM
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Re: River Bluff
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I called the turn because I think I have about 8 or 9 outs. [/ QUOTE ] I understand that, and I would call here too. However, if I was planning on bluffing, I think a turn semi-bluff is much better than betting this river. [/ QUOTE ] I wasn't planning on bluffing. The king just completes so many hands I can reasonably have here I figured it was worth it (I checkfold everything else that doesn't improve my hand). -SmileyEH
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#14
06-14-2005, 03:18 PM
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Re: River Bluff
if villain was a tag, perhaps this would be a decent play. although I still think most will call down the one bet. Will they call down more than 1 out of 9?...it's close.
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#15
06-14-2005, 03:20 PM
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Re: River Bluff
[ QUOTE ]
The king just completes so many hands I can reasonably have here I figured it was worth it (I checkfold everything else that doesn't improve my hand). [/ QUOTE ] It also completes a lot of hands that the CO might have played this way. I think this bet is spewing against a normal player - it's even worse against an unkown.
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#16
06-14-2005, 03:21 PM
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Re: River Bluff
I started out hating it and moved to liking it.
Is the flop call a closer decision than bluffing on the river? You're four outs shorter than the 8-9 you think you have on the turn and, if the river bluff does have +EV, your implied odds aren't as good as you would like them.
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#18
06-14-2005, 03:23 PM
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Re: River Bluff
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] The king just completes so many hands I can reasonably have here I figured it was worth it (I checkfold everything else that doesn't improve my hand). [/ QUOTE ] It also completes a lot of hands that the CO might have played this way. I think this bet is spewing against a normal player - it's even worse against an unkown. [/ QUOTE ] I think the only hand that villian would play this way and improve on the river is KQ - certainly possible but not a big part of his range. -SmileyEH
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#19
06-14-2005, 03:26 PM
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Re: River Bluff
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] The king just completes so many hands I can reasonably have here I figured it was worth it (I checkfold everything else that doesn't improve my hand). [/ QUOTE ] It also completes a lot of hands that the CO might have played this way. I think this bet is spewing against a normal player - it's even worse against an unkown. [/ QUOTE ] I think the only hand that villian would play this way and improve on the river is KQ - certainly possible but not a big part of his range. -SmileyEH [/ QUOTE ] The thing is, the only scary hand that your bluff makes you look like, is AQ...which isn't exactly a wide range for you either. Most of the time, you will be called with any made hand (pair or better)
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#20
06-14-2005, 03:31 PM
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Re: River Bluff
[ QUOTE ]
Everyone so far is giving way too much credit for a jack in this spot. There are already two out there so I think villians most likely hands is a ten or a hand like 99. [/ QUOTE ] No, we are just assuming that with any non-drawing hand with which opponent called the turn he will also call the river. [ QUOTE ] Whether its enough for them to fold profitably I don't know. [/ QUOTE ] It's not
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