Winning live player yet?

[BWillie]

I've been playing $2/$5 Spread Limit Hold 'Em with a 10% rake, 4 dollar max. over the last couple of months at the local Riverboat. Everytime I play I log how many hours I play, with what I came up and so far I've played 86.15 hours and have made $1552. That comes out to about $18 an hour. My question is how accurate this is to me being a consistent winning live poker player. They say it takes thousands and thousands of hands for online poker to find out, but I just feel I'm thoroughly better than the live players and consistently outplaying them. They play all kinds of hands, play very loose or very tight, and are easily readable and predictable. I don't come up every night, and I lose about 1/4 times I go, but usually I only lose 20 or 30 at a time, while my winning nights can get as much as $270 for 4 hours of play. I never knew live games could be so soft because I've played online before this and 20 dollar mickey mouse no limit home tournaments.

[Al_Capone_Junior]

[ QUOTE ]
Everytime I play I log how many hours I play, with what I came up and so far I've played 86.15 hours and have made $1552. That comes out to about $18 an hour. My question is how accurate this is to me being a consistent winning live poker player.

[/ QUOTE ]

Come back when you have 500 hours and you MIGHT have a semi-not-really accurate and only slightly feasible estimate of whether you have any real chance of beating live poker or not.

[ QUOTE ]
I just feel I'm thoroughly better than the live players and consistently outplaying them

[/ QUOTE ]

Trust me, no matter how well you think you are playing, you won't keep outplaying them more than one big bet per hour, and that's assuming you are PRETTY DAMN GOOD at the game. And that's assuming a lot, considering your live play experience is 86 hours. You are far more realistically at about 0.3 bb/hour at best, IF that, and that's assuming you have some actual skill because you chose to post here on 2+2.

al

p.s. mickey-mouse home chit don't count for chit

[Lawrence Ng]

2003 I played a lot of live 10/20

First 300 hours, $9k or so.

Second 300 hours, $1.5 k or so.

Variance can be nasty.

Your 86.5 hours have a long long way to go.

Lawrence

[Derek in NYC]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Everytime I play I log how many hours I play, Trust me, no matter how well you think you are playing, you won't keep outplaying them more than one big bet per hour, and that's assuming you are PRETTY DAMN GOOD at the game.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a ridiculous statement for a low limit game.

[Bremen]

[ QUOTE ]
This is a ridiculous statement for a low limit game.

[/ QUOTE ]
Espcially for a spread limit no fold'em game.

[steamboatin]

If Al Capone JR has made a ridiculous statement, it will be the first one I have read, (jokes excludedof course).

[AKQJ10]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is a ridiculous statement for a low limit game.

[/ QUOTE ]
Espcially for a spread limit no fold'em game.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I had always understood the proverbial 1 BBet/hr to refer to a game with somewhat competent but beatable opponents -- the kind envisioned in HEPFAP, say, just for a data point.

If your EV from a juicy $2/4 with 8 seeing the flop is 1 BBet/hr, then it seems like even a "good" midlimit game can only be beat more much less than that, no?

Admonishments against overreacting to small samples are well taken, but IMO it was far more important when I started to TELL I was playing better than his opponents. Of course everyone thinks they're better than they really are, so I'm not sure how you would approach the question objectively other than counting limpers or PFR or analyzing the junk people show down.

[SamIAm]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
no matter how well you think you are playing, you won't keep outplaying them more than one big bet per hour, and that's assuming you are PRETTY DAMN GOOD at the game.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a ridiculous statement for a low limit game.

[/ QUOTE ]
Not at all. Most dealers shoot for 15-20 hands/hour. 1BB/hour means 3BB/100hands, and that's a great winrate. I won't believe you if you tell me you're beating the game for even 6BB/100.

I'm not trying to be mean, but if you think 1700 hands is the long term, it feels less likely that you're a +10BB/100 player.
-Sam

[BWillie]

"Trust me, no matter how well you think you are playing, you won't keep outplaying them more than one big bet per hour, and that's assuming you are PRETTY DAMN GOOD at the game."

I know you have alot of posts under your belt, but why do you seem to think you can't outplay live poker play at more than one big bet/hour? Which is 2-5 dollars per hour depending how you think about it (BB is 2, but you can raise 5 anytime on any street even PF). I think if you are a good player in this game you can beat it for about 9-12 an hour. I do think my 18 an hour is higher than my true win rate, but winning at about half of that say 9 an hour would probably be more accurate over the long haul, but I don't know. I plan on playing about everyday for the next month,a nd I'll bump this post with an update. The main thing I do which helps me win more money is to play at opportune hours, recognize the people who are throwing their money away, and try not to play with those who I know are good players. Maybe the games around here are just unusually soft. I know a hand full of the other good players who are constantly at the tables that consistently beat the game quite easily, some at even a higher rate than me over more hours. One game I wish they played more of there is 2-10 spread...that game is a goldmine. Probably the best limit game I've ever played.

[Al_Capone_Junior]

I say 1 bb/hour because that is a very REALISTIC win rate. I say that because I did all those things, choose good games, avoid strong opponents, play at times when the morons are out etc etc etc and after playing THOUSANDS of hours, my win rate in california at 3-6 kill was $7.12 hour. In 4-8 kill it was $9.35 or so. That's both honest and realistic, and it's also true.

Spread limit you might be able to eek out an extra buck or two per hour. But trying to say you'll make $15 or $20 an hour playing 2-5 or even 2-10 is just not realistic. If you keep records long enough and accurately enough (that means actually writing down factual losses and not padding the numbers), you will find your win rate to be a realistic number, not made up stuff.

None of this applies to no-limit. I haven't kept good records on no limit, so I can't say with any accuracy what my win rate is. However, it's likely to be about $10-$15 an hour in an "average" 1-2 blinds game, more in a terrific game, but not a LOT more. REALISM is what counts when you are talking win rates. Anyone with ridiculous win rates that FAR exceed those in books like GTAOT are just fantasies, even WITH today's better than average games. Those people only fool themselves.

al