$33: JJ facing raise on the bubble.

xJMPx · #1 10-05-2005, 03:51 PM

The villain in this hand has made some questionable raises through out the game. However, I don't recall any really donkish calls on his part.

Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Villain (3270)
Button (1900)
SB (770)
BB: HERO (2060)
Dealt to HERO [ Jd, Jh ]
Villain raises (700) to 700
2 folds.
DevinLake ????

mike28 · #2 10-05-2005, 04:02 PM

What are the blinds?

I reall don't see myself not pushing here tho.

xJMPx · #3 10-05-2005, 04:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
What are the blinds?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry about that. The blinds are 75/150, which made me think by the size of his raise that he didn't want any action here.

sofere · #4 10-05-2005, 04:17 PM

Small stack is not nearly small enough to make this a fold. Barring any strong reads, push and take the chip lead. Then use it better than he did.

xJMPx · #5 10-05-2005, 06:04 PM

Anyone else?

#6 10-05-2005, 06:16 PM

I close my eyes and push.

#7 10-05-2005, 06:31 PM

The 700 raise is saying that he has a hand that does not mind a showdown with the small stack, it has nothing to do with wanting action or not. I would push here.

ravensfan · #8 10-05-2005, 08:46 PM

Is this one fulltilt or Pokerstars? If so, then the blind structures make it less profitable to gamble as well, since there's more time and less need to force the action given ur stack size.

I'm folding.
I'm 2nd stack, the smallest stack has only 5x bb after he folds. Let's say you win the race and are chip leader, how likely is it that you win?
I'd say it depends on your HU play, but likely 2-1 that you win first.... So, let's say that by winning a showdown you win say 4.3 x(?)buyin.
Now let's say you fold and survive to the money (easy enough given the situation), if you're a strong player (2+2), then let's say that you win 3x buyin (ie. you hold your spot).
Well, if you push and it'd be a coinflip, he's calling and you're losing EV big time (probably EV is 2.5x buyin). If he has just one overcard, then isn't it about 30% likely that he wins anyway - so he probably calls?! If he calls, then you're slightly -EV. I'm assuming he's as likely to have an overpair as an underpair if he calls...

Also thinking he wouldn't have put $700 down if he wasn't willing to call a push, as he was probably targeting your blinds...

I'd say that unless he has shown he's loose, then it's a fold... especially since it's possible to have a large ROI and therefore maybe not worth a marginal call...

Beyond this it's read dependent, your table image and his table image...

AM I TOO TIGHT PASSIVE?

xJMPx · #9 10-05-2005, 11:23 PM

ravensfan, you make some good points although I have a hard time following some of your #x buyin talk, but I think I got the jist.

To address a couple of your points specifically. This is a Party Poker sng.

You say you don't think he'd bet 700 if he wasn't going to call a push. Betting 700 leaves him ~2500 behind, I think I have huge fold equity here. I think the raise says he's willing to invest enough to knock off the short stack, but he has an exit plan if a bigger stack comes over the top.

However, I did certainly considered folding this hand, as the small stack is at risk of being blinded off. However, one double up and he's right back in it and if it's through me I'm suddenly in trouble. I'd made it into the money quite a bit this night, however I was squeeking into the money and finishing 3rd too often. I wanted to play for first here, now that I had some chips.

Also, I had seen this guy make some very questionable raises through out the game and the size of the bet made be think it was not all that likely to be an over pair.

So, my thinking was...if I get called it's most likely two overs, which I'm a coinflip. I don't like this, but I think it's not happening very often here. But, I was confident that he would lay this down a very large precentage of time because my stack could seriously hurt his and was not offering great odds to call.

I think you've neglected in your post large percentage of time he folds here. What do you need to call here? I'm probably something like QQ+ in his spot.

Thoughts?

ravensfan · #10 10-06-2005, 02:48 AM

Hey Devin,

Sorry about the length, this will explain my logic:
My point in *Buyin is about seeing the tourney as a whole. I was thinking that you'd want to estimate how much actual loot you'd take from the tourney based on this hand. In the end, it's all about how much money you keep. So, i guess i arbitrarily made up some numbers, but what i was trying to say was that you could clearly expect to make more money from this thing by folding IF he happened to call you.

If he was equally likely to have one or two overcards then it's very EV for him to do so (i believe it's pretty close to even for him to call with Axs, Kxs, Qxs, actually). Therefore, assuming he could put you on as good a hand as Js, you could still expect him to call... In which case, it's bad to push.
Maybe i'm losing it, does this make sense?

Then again, maybe he puts you on A10+ or something and doesn't feel like being dominated?! Or giving up his large stack that he's been wielding?! Or maybe he just thinks you're willing to race b/c he's been bullying the table and someone is bluffing into him... I think it's a little read-dependent for these reasons. I think though, these combine to reduce your FE.

That said, i've likely underestimated your FE, and depending on how frequent his raises were and how loose he is, he might very well fold, as he'd wish to wield his chips in the future... So, it's probably a little closer than I first thought.

I suppose that since he hadn't made too many donkish plays, I'd put him on a relatively good hand when betting into you, then again you had mentioned that he'd made a few raises...
Thing is, i think he gets good potodds if he has say Ax. I think his pot odds are correct to call (if he's only thinking about chips totals and not chip values). And it could be really hard for him to put you on Js, so he might think he's getting great odds with whatever he has versus two others, or maybe he puts you on something like 7s-9s...

I just figured that he was getting good pot odds and would likely call, especially if he wasn't donkish.

I was actually basing it on the FTOP, and assuming he has at least one, maybe two over cards, he has reasonable EV to call (i'm too tired to do the math, but i'd think it's close... if he has 2 overcards, he has very very +EV).

I just noticed, but isn't it funny how by racing you'll have less combined expected payout than by not racing - as in some of your expected return is given to the other players! (incidentally i believe this leads directly into game theory)... i guess this is why it's in everyone left in the hand's best interests to avoid a race (and this spot is more likely leading into a race) [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]