stud probability coefficients?

dandy_don · #1 06-20-2005, 09:55 AM

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If your two pair were live, you had 4 out to fill your big house.

So 4 times 3 (3 is the 6th street stud probability coefficient) equals 12.

Or 12% of the time you are going to fill. And there for if your sixth street bet is less than approx. 10% of the eventual pot, your call had positive mathematical expectations. So well called by you!

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Going through the archives, I ran across another one of Doc AZ's posts where he references a "stud probability coefficient" for 6th street. Anyone know what these coefficients are for the other streets? Does anyone use these or something similar when left with a tough call/raise/fold situation?

I ran a search for this and nothing popped up.

dandy

Bartholow · #2 06-20-2005, 01:50 PM

It appears that it just means the chance of 1 out hitting by the river. So it's a way to approximate your total winning chances. Of course probability is not quite that simple with more than 1 card to come, but you can make pretty decent estimates that way.

Wish I could tell you what the numbers would be for other streets.

TheShootah · #3 06-20-2005, 01:57 PM

Yeah, but it seems like these can only be rough estimates...since the amount of seen cards are variable. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Bartholow · #4 06-20-2005, 02:20 PM

Yeah, I assume they were calculated for headsup play but who knows. Seems like an awkward way to go about things alright.

TheShootah · #5 06-20-2005, 02:33 PM

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Seems like an awkward way to go about things alright.

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[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

peritonlogon · #6 06-20-2005, 03:18 PM

See "Getting the best of it" by Sklansy for how to calculate parlays (which is with more than one card to come). Or just multiply fractions
[(52-outs-dead)/(52-dead)][(52-outs-dead-1)/(52-dead-1)] This is for 2 cards to come. For each additional st. multiply another fraction like the second one and subtract 1 from the top and bottom of the fraction. This gives you the % that you won't hit. To determine the odds you will hit, let your % equal P,
(P)/(1-P) this will be your "odds to one." To determine your % chance of winning simply subtract P from 1

TheShootah · #7 06-20-2005, 05:33 PM

I think everyone on this forum knows this, but in the small period of time you get online, that's not possible, hence the need for some shortcut.

dandy_don · #8 06-20-2005, 05:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
See "Getting the best of it" by Sklansy for how to calculate parlays (which is with more than one card to come). Or just multiply fractions
[(52-outs-dead)/(52-dead)][(52-outs-dead-1)/(52-dead-1)] This is for 2 cards to come. For each additional st. multiply another fraction like the second one and subtract 1 from the top and bottom of the fraction. This gives you the % that you won't hit. To determine the odds you will hit, let your % equal P,
(P)/(1-P) this will be your "odds to one." To determine your % chance of winning simply subtract P from 1

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Just reading that makes my head hurt. Somehow, that part of math escaped me getting through engineering school.

dandy_don · #9 06-20-2005, 05:50 PM

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hence the need for some shortcut.

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Now that's what I'm talking about....

peritonlogon · #10 06-20-2005, 07:13 PM

I've programmed my TI-83 to calculate stud outs with the same formula I gave above. I have no way to import the program but either, someone else who can program something other than a calculator could be found, or you could give me specific situations in stud... for example the two pair on 6th heads up from 3rd on, assuming live cards where any full house and only a full house would win would be 3.95 to 1