Am I a wuss? -- Part II

[PseudoPserious]

Hiya,

Online .5/1 game -- loose but not that passive. 8-handed at the moment.


I'm dealt Ks Kc on the button. EP limps. MP raises. I re-raise. SB calls. BB folds. EP and MP call.


Flop: Td Kd 7s -- 4 players, 12.5 SB in the pot

Checked around to me. I bet, SB and EP call, MP folds.


Turn: [ Td Kd 7s ] Jh -- 3 players, 7.75 BB in the pot

Checked around to me. I bet. SB raises. EP and I call.


River: [ Td Kd 7s Jh ] As -- 3 players, 13.5 BB pot

SB bets. EP raises. I fold. SB re-raises. EP caps. SB calls.


Showdown: 2 players, 21 BB pot


Results/commentary to follow...

[PseudoPserious]

Results:

SB had Ad Qs. EP had Qc Jd. From a results-orientated standpoint, I made a good fold.


Commentary:

Turn - Should I have re-raised here? The only two hands that have me beat are AQ and 89; there are several other hands that I beat which might call the flop and check-raise the turn, such as trips, two pair, or a straight flush draw. Folding is not an option, as even if I'm behind I can spike a full house.


River - In general, should my KK be folded here? The pot's pretty big, but a re-raise is possible behind me and all it takes is Qx to beat me.


Many thanks for your time,
PP

[bad beetz]

Neither you or the small blind made any mistakes. The EP limper made some. calling two cold on the turn with third pair/gutshot would be the biggest one.

[Bob T.]

On the turn, you should reraise. Your opponent might be playing this way with two pair, or maybe a slowplayed set. Even if you are behind to a straight, you still have 10 outs.

On the river, I think it is safe to say that you are beat.

Good Luck,
Play Well,

Bob T.

[PseudoPserious]

I agree, Bob T. I should have re-raised the turn. Lately I've been trying to respect the turn check-raise more than I have in the past, but in this case I think I have most of the c/r hands beat.

Thanks again,
PP

[Mason Malmuth]

Once it is bet and raised, there is almost no chance that you can win. Both players are representing a straight with a queen, and they both need to be bluffing for you to win. That's a long shot parlay and the pot is not offering you those odds.

Best wishes,
mason

[polarbear]

Turn - Should I have re-raised here? The only two hands that have me beat are AQ and 89; there are several other hands that I beat which might call the flop and check-raise the turn, such as trips, two pair, or a straight flush draw.

The SB called 2.5 bets cold preflop, unless he's really loose, he doesn't have K7, J7, or 107. It is true that there are lots of hands that you can beat, however, when you take into account that you have 2 of the kings, and there are is no A/Q/9/8 on the flop, your odds don't look nearly as good.

(Flop Kd-10d-7s Turn Jh)

K-J, 3 ways (would he play KJ?)
K-10, 3 ways (would he play K10 and then slowplay the flop?)
J-10, 9 ways (would he play J10?)
J-J, 3 ways
10-10, 3 ways (would he slowplay the flop?)
7-7, 3 ways (would he play 77 and then slowplay the flop?)
Qd-Jd, 1 way (would he play QJs?)
total between 3 and 25 ways

A-Q, 16 ways
Q-9, 16 ways (would he play Q9?)
9-8, 16 ways (would he play 98?)
total between 16 and 48 ways

You collect from 2 players if your hand is best. Your outs to improve if your hand is not best are approximately nullified by EP's outs to improve if your hand is best. But, if your hand is not best, you have to call a 4-bet if SB has AQ. So, you need somewhere close to a 50% chance of having the best hand to make reraising correct.

That looks unlikely, so I would say to just call the turn. Raising, and then folding on the river if you're 4-bet and you don't fill up seems like a bad idea because it's extremely dangerous.

[Louie Landale]

River fold looks routine. I like Malmuth's reference to a "parlay": the chance BOTH are bluffing is MUCH less than if just one needs to be bluffing.

Should you 3-bet the turn? If you are behind you've got 10 outs or are "only" 3.4:1 underdog; but you are getting 2:1 for your raise (there is a caller). You are also risking 2:1 since he'll cap it with the straight. If you are ahead you are either confortably ahead or WAY ahead.

Lets assume SB has at least 2-pair; lets count hands: there are 16 AQs and 16 98s that can have you beat, but SB may very well have folded the 98s to your preflop 3-bet. There are 4 KJs and 4 KTs and 9 JTs he can have, and 3 set of Ts and 3 sets of Js. Looks like its about 32:23 in favor of him having the straight.

You may adjust that for the how assertive he may get with a pair and a draw, but all-in-all it seems like you should just call his turn raise.

- Louie