Value bet the turn?

chaz64 · #1 12-09-2004, 02:14 PM

Paradise Poker 0.02/0.04 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
Hero raises, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, CO folds, Button 3-bets, SB caps, BB calls, Hero calls, Button calls.

Flop: (16 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB bets, BB calls, Hero raises, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Turn: (12 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

With a flush draw alone I don't have enough callers here for value. With the overcards I do - but I would think based on pre-flop action these outs are not clean. So do you bet here, or no?

River: (12 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB bets, BB folds, Hero raises, Button folds, SB 3-bets, Hero caps, SB calls.

Final Pot: 20 BB

Thanks for any comments.

realbad101 · #2 12-09-2004, 02:25 PM

I think checking this turn is fine. You can't value bet your flush draw as you have noted and you can't say with confidence that your ace high is best. Checking is fine.

Mathematically, count 3 outs from your AJ and 9 from your flush draw. 12/47 approximately 25% or 3 to 1. Close enough that you could break even if you do. But I still err on the side of checking this one.

topspin · #3 12-09-2004, 02:26 PM

I'd also check the turn. Hope SB didn't have 4d2d [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

wyattjames4 · #4 12-09-2004, 02:47 PM

With a flush draw alone I don't have enough callers here for value. With the overcards I do - but I would think based on pre-flop action these outs are not clean. So do you bet here, or no?

youre supposed to bet to clean up your outs. the pot odds plus 3 callers make the raise at least break even, and cleaning those outs if you do hit your A or J will win you the pot instead of losing it or splitting.

Aaron W. · #5 12-09-2004, 03:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
youre supposed to bet to clean up your outs. the pot odds plus 3 callers make the raise at least break even, and cleaning those outs if you do hit your A or J will win you the pot instead of losing it or splitting.

[/ QUOTE ]

How does betting clean up outs here? He's not going to be outkicked, and I really doubt that there's another AJ out there to split with him. Go read this .

Entity · #6 12-09-2004, 03:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
the pot odds plus 3 callers make the raise at least break even

[/ QUOTE ]
Wrong. A flush draw on the turn is 4.1:1 to come in. Hero needs slightly more than what he's got to pull this bet off.

With overcards + the flush draw (probably 12 outs), you could profitably bet this with 4 potential callers if they'd all call. With 5 potential callers it's an easy bet; with 3 potential callers it's an easy check.

Rob

gopnik · #7 12-09-2004, 03:42 PM

I would play it exactly the same way

wyattjames4 · #8 12-09-2004, 04:49 PM

Wrong. A flush draw on the turn is 4.1:1 to come in. Hero needs slightly more than what he's got to pull this bet off.

With overcards + the flush draw (probably 12 outs), you could profitably bet this with 4 potential callers if they'd all call. With 5 potential callers it's an easy bet; with 3 potential callers it's an easy check.

i disagree. if you even knock out even one player you probably raise your pot equity by 10 percent or more. thats 1.2 BB. also SB cant be taken off of a an AK or AQ or even though it is unlikely AJ. and to stop betting now just envites a straight or flush draw to bluff you out on the end.

Aaron W. · #9 12-09-2004, 05:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]
if you even knock out even one player you probably raise your pot equity by 10 percent or more.

[/ QUOTE ]

In order for you to gain equity from the pot, you've got to be in one of three situations:

1) You have a hand that's ahead *right now*, but can lose to river cards that improve your opponents to a hand better than yours (You hold TT vs. KJ with a board of 2579).
2) You and your opponents are both second place or worse, but when you hit your out, it improves your opponent to a hand better than yours (you hold QJ vs. KJ on a 55T board and someone else holds a medium pocket pair - you "clean up" your J outs if he folds).
3) You knock out a better hand (this doesn't happen very often).

In this situation, it looks as if Hero is very likely *not* in first (ace high isn't a likely winner here), but his outs are almost certainly clean (the only possibility is AQ or AK from either the button or SB, but only the button has a reasonable chance of folding for one more bet anyway.)

I don't think Hero can get another 10% equity from this pot by folding someone out. He cleans up 2 outs *IF* the button has AQ or AK and *IF* the button folds to a bet and *IF* Hero isn't check-raised by SB when SB has a better hand. Those 2 outs correspond to less than 10% of the possible river cards (2/44 = 4.5%, ASSUMING that we know only one holds AQ or AK).

Beavis68 · #10 12-09-2004, 05:36 PM

The SB could easily have an Axs where the x paired here.