Standard Hand 2: Whiffed Overcards OOP

[srt19170]

[ QUOTE ]
You have 6 outs for TPTK, which may not be best hand so I'll count them as three outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

You think Villain has a set 50% of the time? I don't think so.

-- Scott

[GrunchCan]

If you usually estimate your overcards to be worth 3 outs each, then you are overestimating thier worth.

In this case, any K puts a 3-straight on board, and A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] puts a more dangerous 3-flush on board. What's more, you could be reverse-dominated or even drawing dead against a set or 2-pair. The point is, you can't say with 100% certianty that spiking your pair will win the pot. And so, you can never count 2 overcards as being worth 6 outs. 1.5 outs each is standard. In many cases, they are worth even less.

However, there are 2 mitigating factors in this hand: I have 2 backdoor draws, each also worth about 1.5 outs. So you came to the right conclusion - that my hand was worth 6 outs. But your reasoning was wrong.

[droolie]

I wouldn't fold either. You're closing the action. Even if I didn't have the outs I'd call half the time in this situation for table image alone. Folding too much in these spots tends to get the rest of the table taking shots at you before too long and your semi-bluffs start to get zero respect.

[GrunchCan]

I agree folding was a clear mistake. As I watched the hand replay in PT, I thought to myself, "Fold? You idiot!"

[WSOP Bound]

Thank you I misread the hand and thought that he was calling cold missing that he was the original bettor.

[srt19170]

[ QUOTE ]

And so, you can never count 2 overcards as being worth 6 outs. 1.5 outs each is standard. In many cases, they are worth even less.


[/ QUOTE ]

Good point. On this board, I wouldn't normally discount KA overcards much, but maybe I need to discount them more.

-- Scott

[Octopus]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You have 6 outs for TPTK, which may not be best hand so I'll count them as three outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

You think Villain has a set 50% of the time? I don't think so.

-- Scott

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't forget that AT and KT are not out of the question. Also don't forget that if we hit and are behind, we are going to lose a fair number of bets. Also don't forget that we can hit and get drawn out on by a flush or a straight. I think counting these overcards as 3 outs is not unreasonable.

[Octopus]

[ QUOTE ]
However, there are 2 mitigating factors in this hand: I have 2 backdoor draws, each also worth about 1.5 outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

A double gutshot backdoor straight draw is worth about .5 outs, not 1.5. That there is a flush draw on makes it worth even less.

[DMBFan23]

why is 1.5 standard for overcards? (I've read SSH, I'm asking rhetorically)

I think this is way more experience based than something like backdoor flush outs, which are calculated more mathematically.

as a theoretical exercise, rate my overcard outs (not other outs, such as flush/straight outs):

Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Flop of 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Flop of 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Flop of 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I guess my point is that it's more the general concept of discounting outs that matters rather than the fact that each overcard is worth 2.781 outs - Ed says in SSH we can't be expected to do all the math for discounting while we're at the table anyway.

[wyattjames4]

i dont think youre neccesarily behind in this hand. the raiser easily could have an open ended or a flush draw. the raise would be a good play in my mind. i think you call for sure, and i might even lead on the turn depending on the situation.