($11) Bubble push or fold?

Reads are SB has been really tight (only 16% VPIP in 50 hands this game, and BB has been relatively tight as well 25% VPIP. I was tight until short stacked about 12-15 hands ago and stole a few blinds and doubled up once with AKs. Two hands remain at this level then it's 100/200.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (4 handed) converter

SB (t2015)
BB (t2525)
UTG (t1465)
Hero (t1995)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero ...

I'm wondering where you draw the line here. My M is 8.8, the table has been tight and has for the most part been push/fold already.

gl,
Mike.

edited to change the typo to 100/200 blinds next...sorry tiger [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[tigerite]

I think here I would fold, &gt;10bb and really no need to make a move yet.

Having run it through they need to be calling with 99+,AQ+ in the SB and JJ+,AK for the BB to make this +EV.. I don't think many players are that tight here. (Or vice versa. That works too)

25% VPIP is not "tight", or even remotely close.

[tigerite]

Oh yeah and when the heck does it ever go from 75/150 to 150/300 in 2 hands? I think you read the blind amount wrong. It's 100/200 next.

[ QUOTE ]
I think here I would fold, &gt;10bb and really no need to make a move yet....

...25% VPIP is not "tight", or even remotely close.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess I should clarify that he was at 20 (or even under) when I had this decision. The 25% was his final VPIP at the end of the tourny so I'm sure the number skewed up after getting 4 handed and less.

So I have one fold, but I not sold that this is an easy decision.

[pineapple888]

Why push? Everyone left in the hand has significantly more than 10BB.

This is read-dependent, but I'd think a raise to $450 is reasonable. Anyone blasts over the top, you fold. Anyone calls (this is the $11s, it's common), you play some poker.

[Shillx]

Pushing here is a poor play with a healthy stack on the bubble. A better question would be if you should push something like AT or AJ. You can certainly wait for a bigger +EV spot (if this one is in fact +EV) then this. In all reality this is a -EV push to begin with though.

As an aside...is anyone else not getting their tournamnet summaries emailed to them in the past few days? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Brad

Fold.

[jedinite]

[ QUOTE ]
This is read-dependent, but I'd think a raise to $450 is reasonable. Anyone blasts over the top, you fold. Anyone calls (this is the $11s, it's common), you play some poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think a raise to 450 here and folding to a push is criminal. You're tossing 1/3 of your stack with a marginal hand out of position, and FWIW your raise screams "i'll fold if you push". if I'm in one of the blinds I'll push on a resteal with a very marginal hand here.

This is an easy preflop fold.

If you've got specific reads on the table as tight you can possibly justify a push, but that would be really easy to determine with SNGPT or ICM calculations. I imagine its going to say fold though, as it doesn't take in to account the blinds going up soon. With the blinds going up in two hands and with specific reads on the table it might be a very very marginal push. But still, fold preflop.

Personally at a lowerstakes game (&lt;$55 for sure) I'm confident that with proper bubble play you can find larger edges in better position the next two orbits and I'd fold.