Big Pots

[illguitar]

Pacific Poker 5/10. Hero is in the SB 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Raised to 10 called. Capped by BB and UTG +2. Hero calls. 6 players see flop. Pot is $120.

Flop comes 10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Hero bets into flop. Raised and reraised. 2 folds.

Hero calls 10 in $150 pot. Cold call and a call. Pot is at 170.

Turn is 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Hero checks, check, check, bet, Hero raises, call, call, call.

River is K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Hero bets, call, fold, call.

Hero wins pot of $280.

I was BERATED by two players at my table for calling on the flop. To me, folding is ridiculous. I was getting 15-1 in a huge pot!

Help me understand...

[grandgnu]

Your biggest mistake I think was after the raise and re-raise on the flop to your bet. Your 5/5 at that point is trash and should be tossed. You got lucky, congrats, it won't happen all that often.

[trumpman84]

Preflop. You've already called $10 and it's $10 back to you, so even though you pretty much know you're behind a bigger pair unles, but you try to flop the set.

I don't see the reason in betting out on the flop...preflop capped 6 ways and I'm sure there's a bigger pair than fives and you aren't getting the overpairs to fold. When it's raised and re-raised back to you..that's when I drop this hand. You definetly drawing to 2 outs and may be drawing dead to a made set....are tens that unlikely a hand?

Turn and River are standard.

Anyway, those are my thoughts on the hand.

[illguitar]

This is a reply to the first 2 suggestions...

but doesn't the amount of money in the pot make folding a
-EV play. In rare situations, I find that chasing in a limit game is a very profitable play. I wonder what Ed Miller would think?

[illguitar]

Using Petriv's Hold Em Odds Book, 2 outs with 2 cards to come translates to about 9%, or 23-2 odds. Therefore the call on the flop raises was correct as I was getting 15-1 on the call. Again, of COURSE I was extremely lucky, but my suckout seems to be justified by pot odds.

Thoughts?

[chabibi]

your pot odds should be played to the next card not to the river the odds hitting your 5 on the turn 22:1 and you were getting 15:1 thats -EV

[EliteNinja]

The call preflop is fine because of your pot odds.
But calling the re-raise was bad because you could easily be behind to pocket tens as that hand is a likely candidate with the pot capped preflop. A set of sixes is also a possibility. The raise and re-raise on the flop could signify that someone may have flopped a set, especially on a ragged board. But depending on the texture of the game, it could also be a value-raise/re-raise by AT to try to knock people out of the big pot (thinking "I should maximize my chances of winning by knocking ppl out on this big a pot.").

So even if 15-1 on your 2 outs may look like it's +EV, it may not be since people with top pair (tens) or second pair (sixes) who also have 2 outs to draw out on you to beat you.

Easy fold on the flop.

[trumpman84]

illguitar...if you are counting your odds based on both the turn AND river cards, I think it's fair to also add in the fact that that if you chase to the river, you are likely to call at least one big bet on the turn and maybe more depending on if the other two get into a raising war again.

...that is...if you aren't already drawing dead.

[AngryCola]

The other posters are correct, you are computing your odds incorrectly. That's a good book you are quoting from, though. I recommend studying it a bit more to gain as much as you can from it.

[patrick dicaprio]

the only mistake i see is preflop when you shoudl have folded. other than that you played it fine. this reminds me of mason's hand where he won with a pair of fours or something in a huge pot.

pat