Who wins when mistakes are made?

[jeffnc]

I'd like to analyze this hand from the point of view of where the money goes when players make mistakes. I was thinking about Sklansky's theorem, but it's hard to relate since it doesn't always work very well in multi-way pots, and since of course when you look at this hand knowing the cards, the answer is obvious. But who made the mistakes assuming you're playing and can't see the cards, and who made good EV decisions, and what does it say about who the money goes to when mistakes are made?

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: SB has 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, Button checks.

Turn: (2.50 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB folds, UTG+1 calls, <font color="CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, Button folds, SB folds, UTG+1 calls.

River: (7.50 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks.

Final Pot: 7.50 BB
<font color="green">Main Pot: 7.50 BB, between MP2 and UTG+1.</font> &gt; <font color="white">Pot won by UTG+1 (7.50 BB).</font>

Results in white below: <font color="white">
UTG+1 has 3s Ac (one pair, threes).
MP2 has 6h Ah (high card, ace).
Outcome: UTG+1 wins 7.50 BB. </font>

[Dov]

Why did SB check the flop if he was going to fold for one bet on the turn?

If he wants to check the flop, then he should be planning to c/r the turn. Since everyone showed weakness on the flop, the turn raise is pretty meaningless, IMO. It just looks like someone trying to stop a bluff. SB should 3 bet this at least 70% of the time unless he has a good read to the contrary.

Otherwise, bet the flop and turn, and check call the river unimproved unless he gets raised somewhere along the way.

I think that obviously, if everyone could see everone else's cards, they would have to muclk to the turn raise because they aren't gettting odds to draw out.

This is just a psyche out. I don't think this says anything about the theory of poker.

BTW, addressing the actual question of where the money goes:

It goes to the aggressive. This hand shows that the most expensive mistake you can make is folding the winning hand.

Dov

[jeffnc]

[ QUOTE ]
BTW, addressing the actual question of where the money goes:

It goes to the aggressive. This hand shows that the most expensive mistake you can make is folding the winning hand.


[/ QUOTE ]

Well that's all pretty obvious. So we should just raise and reraise every hand, being as aggressive as possible, and force our opponents to fold better hands, because we make money when other players make mistakes, right? On the other hand, I should just never fold the best hand, simple as that, right? Now obviously, the worst mistake you can make is folding the winning hand, but that doesn't make the turn raise in this hand correct to begin with. And it certainly didn't benefit the raiser to get the SB to fold. So in answer to your statement money "goes to the aggressive", obviously in this hand it went to the most passive player at the table.

[Dov]

[ QUOTE ]
So we should just raise and reraise every hand, being as aggressive as possible, and force our opponents to fold better hands, because we make money when other players make mistakes, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

Correct. As long as they will fold the best hand frequently enough to make this profitable.

[ QUOTE ]
So in answer to your statement money "goes to the aggressive", obviously in this hand it went to the most passive player at the table.

[/ QUOTE ]

So are you a bigger fan of checking and calling or betting and raising?

It's already been shown conclusively that aggression is more profitable than passivity in the long run.

BTW, Why does the tone of your post seem so condescending?

Dov

[jeffnc]

[ QUOTE ]
So are you a bigger fan of checking and calling or betting and raising?

[/ QUOTE ]

You mean in general? As always - it depends. Sometimes one is better than the other.

[ QUOTE ]
BTW, Why does the tone of your post seem so condescending?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because you stated the glaringly obvious, and then dismissed my question as unworthy of discussion relative to poker theory. Do you think the turn raise is +EV? Who made mistakes in this hand, and who profited from those mistakes? How often does that happen, and why? I happen to find it interesting that UTG+1 won this hand. Do you think he played the hand well? Do you think MP2 played the hand well?

[Cooker]

Obviously, the person that folded the best hand made the worst mistake. If the SB knew everyone's cards, the best play would have been to reraise the turn to charge the flush draw the most money to see another card. So by the FTOP the person with K5 made the worst play without a doubt.

MP2's play not only isn't terrible, but is probably correct even if he knows both of your hands (Maybe it is a little too fancy for such a small pot though). If either of the other 2 players fold, he goes from a 9 outer to a 12 outer. His play is a classic semibluff, and it appeared to have worked very well. Take into account that he doesn't know what he is up against, after an all check flop, ace high might be the best hand. I think he played the hand very well. Looks like a textbook semibluff to me. He will probably think he caught you on a pure bluff until the day he dies, and it was just bad luck that the button was a calling station that wouldn't release a very weak hand.

I think the button is obviously a calling station, and they get lucky sometimes. There is no point discussing his play, because it is well known that calling stations lose their money eventually. The only reason he won this pot is because the best hand folded to very little pressure. If anything, he played more aggressively than the SB, because he didn't fold.

I think folding top pair with no flush or straight possibilities on the board, and an all check flop is a pretty bad play, even if you don't know his cards. He could easily be raising on the flush semibluff, with second or third pair, almost anything. I might have gone into check call mode (because I struggle a little with my aggresiiveness sometimes), but a fold in that spot is the weakest play anyone makes at the table, and it hurt the most. I actually think not betting top pair on the flop is pretty weak also. Top pair weak kicker is worth a bet on the flop, but probably not strong enough to check raise. Top pair is almost always worth a showdown unless the board gets really scary, or you have strong evidence that you are against a better kicker (like a preflop raise, but you shouldn't have played this hand at all then). The only possible exception to showing down top pair is a really weak ace (A2 or A3), because many people play any Ace, where not that many play any king.

I am not saying that you are a bad player. You may be quite a bit better than me, but I think you clearly played this particular hand in about the worst way possible on every street except possibly preflop.

[Dov]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you think the turn raise is +EV? Who made mistakes in this hand, and who profited from those mistakes? How often does that happen, and why?

[/ QUOTE ]

This has nothing to do with with the FTOP, This hand is full of strategic and tactical errors as I mentioned earlier. That's why I discussed the aspects that I did.

If you are only looking for answers or discussion from people who agree with you, then you should stipulate that in your posts.

Don't worry Jeff. I'll leave you alone now.

Good Luck to you.

Dov

[jeffnc]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Do you think the turn raise is +EV? Who made mistakes in this hand, and who profited from those mistakes? How often does that happen, and why?

[/ QUOTE ]

This has nothing to do with with the FTOP

[/ QUOTE ]

It has to do with who benefits from a mistake.

[ QUOTE ]
If you are only looking for answers or discussion from people who agree with you, then you should stipulate that in your posts.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agree with what? I asked a question. What I stipulated in my post was that I was looking for someone to look at a question from a particular point of view. If you weren't interested in that, why did you bother?

[jeffnc]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the button is obviously a calling station, and they get lucky sometimes. There is no point discussing his play, because it is well known that calling stations lose their money eventually. The only reason he won this pot is because the best hand folded to very little pressure. If anything, he played more aggressively than the SB, because he didn't fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

But he played far more passively than the MP2, and still won. In fact, he might have made the only possible play that would have won this particular hand, which I find pretty interesting. In which situation would you be more likely to fold, all else being equal?
a) you bet, the next player raises, and third player folds
b) you bet, the next player calls, and the third player raises

I'm also curious why you'd say MP2's play was correct even if he could see both our hands, no matter how you look at it. Let's say we turn over our cards on the turn. SB bets UTG+1 calls (for whatever strange reason). You think MP2 should raise? Let's say we don't turn over the cards until UTG+1 calls. You still think MP2 should raise? I don't understand that. If he raised, SB would reraise and UTG+1 would fold. They'd be going at it 1:1, but MP2 would be not even 2:1 odds against for winning the hand.

By the way, I think all 3 players made mistakes in this hand. That's why I find it interesting to see where the money goes.

[jeffnc]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm also curious why you'd say MP2's play was correct even if he could see both our hands, no matter how you look at it. Let's say we turn over our cards on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I misunderstood your point. You were saying he could see our cards, and we couldn't see his. I still have to question that play. At $3/6, getting people to fold to that play doesn't seem very likely, IME.