Two Plus Two Older Archives Probability to make boat/quads from flopped set?
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#1
05-28-2005, 08:19 PM
 AA suited Junior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 14
Probability to make boat/quads from flopped set?

flopped a set

6:1 to make boat/quad on turn (7 outs)
4:1 to make boat/quad on river (10 outs)

if i went all in on flop, what are the odds to make a boat/quad by showdown?
#2
05-28-2005, 09:39 PM
 mannika Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: KTown Ghetto Posts: 291
Re: Probability to make boat/quads from flopped set?

= 1-(40/47)(36/46)

= 33.4%
#3
05-28-2005, 09:41 PM
 pzhon Member Join Date: Mar 2004 Posts: 66
Re: Probability to make boat/quads from flopped set?

[ QUOTE ]
flopped a set

6:1 to make boat/quad on turn (7 outs)
4:1 to make boat/quad on river (10 outs)

if i went all in on flop, what are the odds to make a boat/quad by showdown?

[/ QUOTE ]
If you have no information about what anyone else has, you will fill up 7/47 + (40/47)(10/46) = 33.4%.

If you know your opponent has a flush, you will fill up 7/45 + (6/45)(9/44)+(32/45)(10/44) = 341/990 = 34.4%. The middle term comes from when the turn would pair your opponent, giving you only 9 outs on the river. It is slightly more likely that you fill up if you know your opponent is not blocking the board from pairing.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=988421
Board: 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 649 65.56 341 34.44 0 0.00 0.656
7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 341 34.44 649 65.56 0 0.00 0.344

If you know your opponent has a straight or a baby flush, you get the same probability to fill up, but you also have outs to tie.
#4
05-29-2005, 10:08 AM
 AA suited Junior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 14
Re: Probability to make boat/quads from flopped set?

33% = 3:1?
#5
05-29-2005, 11:44 AM
 olavfo Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 303
Re: Probability to make boat/quads from flopped set?

[ QUOTE ]
33% = 3:1?

[/ QUOTE ]
33% = 2:1

You make it 1 out of 3 times and fail 2 out of 3 times. The odds are therefore 2:1 against.

olavfo
#6
05-30-2005, 07:21 PM
 mw999 Junior Member Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 3
Re: Probability to make boat/quads from flopped set?

New to board. I have seen various percentages above 33%. Ccould this be due to runner runner? My math shows that runner runner is 6.5%.
2nd question. what are the odds and percentage of the board paring at each stage? thoughts please. MW
#7
05-31-2005, 08:15 AM
 pzhon Member Join Date: Mar 2004 Posts: 66
Re: Probability to make boat/quads from flopped set?

[ QUOTE ]
I have seen various percentages above 33%. Ccould this be due to runner runner?

[/ QUOTE ]
Do you mean something like a flop of AKQ, turn 6, river 6? That is included in the calculations. It is why people say that you have 7 outs to fill up on the turn, and if you miss, you have 10 outs to fill up on the river.
#8
05-31-2005, 09:30 AM
 mw999 Junior Member Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 3
Re: Probability to make boat/quads from flopped set?

I understand. two different internet sites have it listed as 37%. I will stick to the 33%. Thanks for info. MW

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