My HeadsUp for the title experiment.

[Daliman]

Well, I'm going to log the next 100 times i get HU for the title in a $200 SNG, logging my entering chipstack and my result W or L, then compare total chipstack equity to my win %. If don't like my results from that, then the NEXT 100, I'm lgging the same info, yet pushing EVERY SINGLE HAND,(not necessarily CALLING though...), then comparing the 2.

I think I have a good HU game, but the fact is that I place about 1% more total than I win (11.1% win, 12.3% place), and after about 2500 tourneys, I think i'm starting to approach statistical relevance here.

Anyways, I'll post my results nightly. I'm thinking the first 100 will take a month or so,(gonna be away on vacation for 2 weeks late Dec.)

[Unarmed]

THANK YOU.
I've always wanted to try this and am very interested in seeing the results.

[Irieguy]

I'll post an early prediction:

1. Your push strategy will be at least as good as your standard strategy.

2. Push strategy will not be more than 15% better than your standard strategy. (meaning 15% of your standard result + your standard result... not 11.1% + 15%.)

The only problem is that a power analysis of the data would show that you need more samples than you have the patience to collect in order for the results to be significant.

Irieguy

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
I'll post an early prediction:

1. Your push strategy will be at least as good as your standard strategy.

2. Push strategy will not be more than 15% better than your standard strategy. (meaning 15% of your standard result + your standard result... not 11.1% + 15%.)

The only problem is that a power analysis of the data would show that you need more samples than you have the patience to collect in order for the results to be significant.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

#1 Possible. Especially when time is factored in, this may become my new permanent strategy.
#2 Also possible.

Yeah, i know this won't tell a hell of a lot, but it's something I'd like some basis of thought on. Although I also think my previous results are/were more due to starting at a lower chipstack on average. I'm guessing if I start ~T100 lower Heads up, that could directly account for the difference mathematically, (EASTY!)
MAN do I wish pokertracker could be tweaked for this kinda stuff.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, I'm going to log the next 100 times i get HU for the title in a $200 SNG, logging my entering chipstack and my result W or L, then compare total chipstack equity to my win %. If don't like my results from that, then the NEXT 100, I'm lgging the same info, yet pushing EVERY SINGLE HAND,(not necessarily CALLING though...), then comparing the 2.

I think I have a good HU game, but the fact is that I place about 1% more total than I win (11.1% win, 12.3% place), and after about 2500 tourneys, I think i'm starting to approach statistical relevance here.

Anyways, I'll post my results nightly. I'm thinking the first 100 will take a month or so,(gonna be away on vacation for 2 weeks late Dec.)

[/ QUOTE ]

I would guess that your win/place split may have a lot more to do with your 3-way play than it does your HU play. Just a thought.

eastbay

[Daliman]

Night 1 results.

7 HU matches.
29921 total beginning chips
4-3 record.

[rachelwxm]

Daliman,

I have a program that does this, and HU is a simplified version of my analysis. And my emperical studies of several hundreds HHs shows that you need 300-400 HH to have some statistically meanningful results for ROI around 20-40%. Since ROI for 200 is generally believed to be smaller, I would guess you need 800+ games or 200+ HU unless you are extremely good at HU. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Just some random thoughts. The results would be interesting.

[Daliman]

I used your program before, I'm pretty sure, and it doesn't seem like it did what I am doing,(unless a different program...). Didn't it measure your "luck" of hot/cold runs of hands?

But yes, I know it's not going to be too statistically significant.

[rachelwxm]

[ QUOTE ]
I used your program before, I'm pretty sure, and it doesn't seem like it did what I am doing,(unless a different program...). Didn't it measure your "luck" of hot/cold runs of hands?


[/ QUOTE ]

My program is not so easy to use and it's still sitting on my computer unless someone hacked it. Are you talking about a different thing? [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[Daliman]

I guess so, i DL'd a prog recently, thought mebbe it was one you posted.

Please disregard my reply....