QQ HU on AKx flop

nfscreech · #1 11-07-2005, 06:07 PM

Villian is 28/15/2.56 over thousands of hands. These stats are from datamining. This is the first time I've ever played against villian and it's early in the session.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is UTG with QdQc.
Hero raises, 3 folds, BB 3-bets, Hero caps, BB calls.

Flop: (8.33 SB) Ks2cAh (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.

Turn: (5.16 BB) 7c (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.

River: (5.16 BB) Jc (2 players)
BB bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 7.16 BB

How'd I do?

JerseyTom · #2 11-07-2005, 06:29 PM

Fine, if you were intent on merely showing down, but I think you're going to be shown a better hand a lot more often than 14% of the time (1:6.16 on the river) vs his 3-betting range (which is admittedly a bit wide with those stats).

Anyone consider a river fold here? Or firing once more on the turn to try to get KQ/KJ to fold?

He's played this exactly like AQ, AJ (WA/WB) or some fancy-played big set (in which case, shame on him).

At the end, you only beat TT- (except 77) or something fairly retarded like QJs.

I dunno... I got completely torched this weekend for something like 135BB - most of it on hands just like this, so feel free to ignore every goddamn word I say... I need to study more and post more responses.

Tom

nfscreech · #3 11-07-2005, 07:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone consider a river fold here?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's my main concern. Given how this guy played the hand, I don't think there's much I beat right now. This guy isn't a donkey, so I would think he's probably peeling the turn with JJ/TT, or a hand with an A/K that he's intent to see showdown with. Either way, on the river the only hand I really beat is TT, and I don't think he'd peel the flop with that hand all that often.

#4 11-07-2005, 07:34 PM

I think you can prety much give up on this hand after the flop once he calls your bet with ak onboard after you have capped I think it's safe to say you are toast, cf the turn/river, especially here where a jack has fallen.

In addition, if you plan to put one more bet in, I think it should be on the turn.

nfscreech · #5 11-07-2005, 08:38 PM

I agree that I should be down with the hand after the flop.

I disagree with this however.

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In addition, if you plan to put one more bet in, I think it should be on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why should I bet the turn if I plan to put one more bet in? Shouldn't I wait for the river where I may induce a bluff/get a call from a weaker hand. If he does have an A/K, checking behind gives me the chance to outdraw. I think I'm drawing here more often than not.

blackize · #6 11-07-2005, 08:49 PM

How many hands 3 bet you preflop and call a bet on this flop and bet the river that you beat? So why not bet the turn and check behind on the river?

nfscreech · #7 11-07-2005, 10:49 PM

Because I am often walking into a check/raise on the turn. If I bet the turn, I may forfeit the chance to get to see a river card and draw out.

ArturiusX · #8 11-07-2005, 11:09 PM

WP, but I fold the river.

slik · #9 11-07-2005, 11:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Anyone consider a river fold here?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's my main concern. Given how this guy played the hand, I don't think there's much I beat right now. This guy isn't a donkey, so I would think he's probably peeling the turn with JJ/TT, or a hand with an A/K that he's intent to see showdown with. Either way, on the river the only hand I really beat is TT, and I don't think he'd peel the flop with that hand all that often.

[/ QUOTE ]
you beat 33-66,88-TT. Not much else. I hate putting in a bet on the turn, when you are clearly WA/WB, and still may have 2 outs to catch up. Calling the river is marginal, but he has a 2.5 AF. I play the same until the river and go by recent table image to call/fold river.

Lurker4 · #10 11-07-2005, 11:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Because I am often walking into a check/raise on the turn. If I bet the turn, I may forfeit the chance to get to see a river card and draw out.

[/ QUOTE ]

But JJ-88 are also getting a free card when they might have folded the turn. If we get c/r'ed on the turn, we are sometimes drawing dead anyway (I think this Villain only c/r's AA/KK/AK here). Only if we assume that Villain will bluff bet these hands on the river or c/call once the turn checks through, is checking the turn to catch a possible 2-outer/induce bluffs better than bet/folding the turn IMO.

If you think we can get Villain to put in a bet on a blank river w/worse PPs, then I think you can check the turn, otherwise I think bet/folding, and checking behind on the river is a better play here.