Question for NPA - Ed Miller (and any other worthwhile opinions)

Kevin · #1 07-22-2004, 06:51 PM

Ed/All,

I just got the book today and I am about 1/2 way through. I recently read page 151-152 talking about calling in a large pot - even when we think that we are dead/drawing dead.

I will post the results later. I wanted an opinion on if this was a hand that I should lay down when two opponents were showing aggression with a paired board against my turned nut flush.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG folds, Hero raises, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO calls, Button calls, SB folds, BB calls.

Flop: (10.33 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, MP1 calls, CO raises, Button folds, BB calls, Hero calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (9.16 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, MP1 checks, CO bets, BB raises, Hero calls, MP1 folds, CO 3-bets, BB caps, Hero calls, CO calls.

River: (21.16 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, Hero calls, CO raises, BB 3-bets, Hero calls, CO caps, BB calls, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 33.16 BB
Main Pot: 33.16 BB, between BB, Hero and CO.

Thanks a lot.
Kevin

Kevin · #2 07-23-2004, 03:32 AM

Results
BB shows 9h 7h (full house, nines full of sevens).
Hero shows Js As (flush, ace high).
CO shows 8h 8c (full house, eights full of nines).
Outcome: BB wins 33.16 BB.

They were whipsawing me. I think that 10bb's is the most that I have ever lost in a hand that I wasn't caught from behind. I planned to call the turn with the nut flush draw but when it was 2 bets back to me, I did not know what to do. I try to play every hand with the thought that I would post it and didn't want to have to post this hand, fold and show that one guy hand A9 and the other had 10 9 or J10 and I folded the best hand - but it felt like at least one was full.

would love your thoughts before you saw the results.

Thanks,
Kevin

butters · #3 07-23-2004, 09:41 AM

That's an ugly ride. I think you'll see trip 9's, straights and smaller flushes here enough times that you have to call it down.

I'd autobet the flop too, but I'm not sure that's the right play on that board with 4 players behind you. Checking to see what develops might be more prudent.

Kluddeludde · #4 07-23-2004, 09:45 AM

I would call the turn and raise BB bet on the river. I'm not yet convinced I am beat. If it comes back capped, I'll call.

Kludde

MAxx · #5 07-23-2004, 10:07 AM

What are you doing putting all that money into the pot with the 3rd best hand? Just kidding. For me this would be an easy trap to fall into too. Sometimes I could avoid it, but sometimes the old autobet the flop button is on and that is what really gets you into the mix. You possibly could have gotten away from the turn, but that is tough too. You have a pretty good idea that at least one of your oponents has trips, but not really convinced anyone has filled up yet. Once you hit the river, you definitely cant turn back. So, I really wouldn't worry about this too much. This will not happen to you that often (and you have also said that it doesn't), and the typical players at 3/6 are so bad that I think it would be giving up too much folding this kind of hand at the turn.

ElSapo · #6 07-23-2004, 10:15 AM

Man, I don't like this.

You get stuck on the turn and I might give it up there seeing as there's a good chance your spade wont be good if it hits and it will cost you a bit to find out. When the BB raises the CO on the turn, and the CO raised the flop, that sets off some bells. Yes, it could be a straight, but I think you have to figure that these guys are really cutting into your odds here if they're gonna cost you 4 BB on the turn to draw to a flush.

On the river I think you could consider raising and the folding when it came back capped.

Somehow I don't like calling 8 BB to find out my hand is no good, and there's a good chance on the turn that's what may happen

ElSapo

EDIT -- On the turn, while the pot is 11 BB when it gets to you, this is only like 5.5-1. Frankly, considering the action and what may happen, I don't think this is enough. Though I haven't read Ed Miller's book, I don't see this as the situation he was discussing.

arkady · #7 07-23-2004, 10:18 AM

Kevin, you should know on the turn that you are in trouble and that is something you will run into when chasing your flush on a paired board with middle cards. Its far more likely that someone has 88 or 9x than if the board was 822 - you know?

Anyway, by the turn its almost clear that you are drawing to nothing more than a flush with the 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] being gone. 8 outs is all you got and you are about 4 to 1 against completing your flush - but lets say your opponents will have the full house half the time, so we can pretend you are actually 8 to 1 against. Throw in the fact that the flush card might make the 9x a full house and you are drawing even thinner.

But, whatever I assume people will call anyway now the river brings the flush and they dont care!! You have to pay attention to your opponents not just the large pile of chips in the center. On the river, you called instead of raising and gave yourself information after it was 2 cold to you - DUMP it. THere is just no good reason why you need to call 3 more BBs at the river, when you can cheaply get away for one. How much more information do you require?

So to summarize: suspect turn play, horrible river play.

P.S. What is with these personal requests to Ed Miller, guys - he does not have a hotline and he reads these posts whenever he can or wants to - you putting his name into it, is just cheesy.

MAxx · #8 07-23-2004, 10:37 AM

I have thought about this a little more, and while I maintain that this is not a huge problem b/c this will not happen to you that often. However, after replaying the hand in my head a few times... I think I would have dumped out on the turn at some point if not when having to call the first 2 cold, certainly after that. But when you called that turn cap, IMO you made a final decision to not turn back. IMO if you could fold river when your flush hits, you had no business calling turn.

ElSapo · #9 07-23-2004, 10:50 AM

[ QUOTE ]
IMO if you could fold river when your flush hits, you had no business calling turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I already said to dump the turn. That said, this isn't right. If you raise the river as you should and it comes back capped, then there's no problem whatsoever folding. Committing yourself with insufficient iformation is poor play.

Monty Cantsin · #10 07-23-2004, 11:53 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Results

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FYI - I think enough people read threads in "flat" mode that, if you want to hide results, you shouldn't post them until after you've had a few responses - even with a *spoiler* title the post will be seen.

I think the rule "don't draw in the middle of a gunfight if there's a reasonable chance you're drawing dead" trumps the rule "don't fold in big pots". Having said that, I'm not sure I would have been able to get away from this one. Tough hand.

/mc