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#31
10-16-2005, 10:30 PM
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Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #2 Results and Panel Comments
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] So you don't think he folds the straight against the possible flush or boat, or the flush against the possible boat? Ever? [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Maybe like 2% or something, but either way insignificant. You really think someone's folding a straight here getting 4:1 to a possible back-door flush or boat? [/ QUOTE ] If villian is afraid of the flush or the boat (reasonably obvious given his check after leading the whole way) then I believe it is possible he will fold to our push. Otherwise, why check? Does he expect us to check the flush or the boat? If he's going to check-call, he might as well push. I don't know that he'll fold more than 1 times in 4, since we don't have any reads on our opponent. But I do know that he is scared of the river and we have an opportunity to take down a big pot (since our push represents enough of a bet that he'd be too short-stacked to mount a comeback, while if he does opt to fold to our push, he has enough chips to continue play) But, I'm not adverse to checking and hoping we win, and keeping enough chips for ourselves to mount a comeback as well. [/ QUOTE ] This is why I was shocked to see the nuts. Him checking his QT there is awful. Any hand that we have that beats QT is obviously pushing, but a lot of worse hands are checking behind. His check there looks a lot more like a bluff giving up or Ax than it does QT. Though I guess not everyone on party poker thinks like that eh? Everett 
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#32
10-16-2005, 10:34 PM
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Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #2 Results and Panel Comments
[ QUOTE ]
The idea that if you are going to call a bet you might as well bet is wrong. There are situations where this is true. Like on the flop when you have a draw and you would be forced to call a push due to the odds it is laying you. In that situation you want to make the bet so that you have folding equity added to the equity you have from the times you hit your draw. However, the opposite is true when you arrive at the river with a mediocre hand. In that case if you bet you will only get called by hands that beat you, but if you check intending to call, then while you will still lose to better hands you will sometimes tempt worse hands (that would have folded if you had bet) into bluffing. Moral of the story, dont abide by universal platitudes like if you're going to call a bet its better to bet yourself. In poker, context is everything. [/ QUOTE ] But I just made Poo-Bah, how can my line be wrong? Didn't you know that we're always right? My status isn't even all built up through OOT forums either. I just can't be wrong! *looks at himself in mirror..........then blows his brains out* [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]
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#33
10-16-2005, 10:36 PM
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Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #2 Results and Panel Comments
Mostly im annoyed by the cliche. In this spot the pot is so big compared to the stacks that most hands that called this far are going to call the river. If there was some chance that a better hand might check behind then I might agree that checking is a possibility. Here though, every better hand is going to bet and you're going to have to call so you might as well bet and squeeze a last drop of value out if he has A10/AQ.
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#34
10-16-2005, 10:39 PM
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Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #2 Results and Panel Comments
mlg, great post sir!
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#35
10-16-2005, 10:54 PM
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Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #2 Results and Panel Comments
[ QUOTE ]
This is why I was shocked to see the nuts. Him checking his QT there is awful. [/ QUOTE ] It's pretty bad, but not at all shocking. He got scared by the river card so he checked, but of course he's calling and of course, if you think you are WAWB on the turn and do not put him on a weaker ace, you're almost always WB to exactly that one hand on the river. I'm also really surprised that people are talking about betting when putting him on a straight - has anyone at Party *ever* folded a straight to any bet on this kind of board?
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#36
10-17-2005, 05:42 AM
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Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #2 Results and Panel Comments
I commented on the turn and river- I folded the turn and checked the river because I knew I was behind. Therefore, played the hand better than the masters. However, on the river, I narrowed the hands too far- didn't include a straight. But in any event, I knew I was behind.
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#37
10-17-2005, 05:51 AM
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Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #2 Results and Panel Comments
[ QUOTE ]
I commented on the turn and river- I folded the turn and checked the river because I knew I was behind. Therefore, played the hand better than the masters. However, on the river, I narrowed the hands too far- didn't include a straight. But in any event, I knew I was behind. [/ QUOTE ] I forgot to write this but I folded preflop. I win.
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#38
10-17-2005, 07:37 AM
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Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #2 Results and Panel Comments
The river diamond also happened to be a jack, pairing the one on the flop. I don't think its just the flush that villain is a little scared of here...
Still, I think he has to call if hero pushes. And I would say the chances of hero calling allin on the river with a hand worse than a straight are higher than the chances of him pushing on a bluff. So I would say villain should probably have pushed the river anyway, but given he didn't, hero is right to check.
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#39
10-17-2005, 08:00 AM
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Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #2 Results and Panel Comments
[ QUOTE ]
I'm also really surprised that people are talking about betting when putting him on a straight - has anyone at Party *ever* folded a straight to any bet on this kind of board? [/ QUOTE ] Considering the number of times I've gone broke to set over set, uh, NO. Monday Morning Quarterbacks have never lost a game. CJ Superb hand to replay, Lloyd. The criticism was totally unwarranted, but typical. Thanks to you. nh
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#40
10-17-2005, 11:41 AM
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Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #2 Results and Panel Comments
Is there interest in "Play a Hand with the Masters backwards #2"? As in, setup:
Setup $100+9 Party Poker MTT Blinds 50/100 No strong read on villain Stacks UTG: t5380 Villain: t2670 MP: t1270 MP+1: t1333 MP+2: 2395 CO: t1394 Button: t2917 SB: 2270 BB/Hero: 2915 Pre-Flop UTG folds. Villain raises to t275. All fold to the you in the BB with Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. What do you do and why? Call, for 175 chips into a 425 chip pot. This hand is decent to be calling a raise with out of position, suited, connected, and high, but not the kind of dominated hand you hate calling a raise with. In this case, if you get top pair with the Q or T you may be able to get away from it. Hand isn't good enough to push him off preflop, but perhaps you can outflop him or outplay him after the flop. Pot odds are too good, hopefully he is tight and has AA/KK/AK and your cards are live. Flop Pot: t600 Flop: J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] What do you do and why? First, I'm happy to see I flopped the nuts. So what do I do. Well, I'll give credit to the raiser to have a good hand preflop - this hits all of them with either 2 pair or trips (AA/KK/JJ/AK/AJ/KJ) or a pair and a gutshot (AQ/KQ/QJ/JT/QQ/TT). I think this hit my opponent and I can stack him, so I'd probably bet out. I want to win a huge pot here. Let's take the lead away from the Villain so that the only way he can take the lead back is to make a bet that committs his whole stack. Bet out 2/3 the pot or 400. Any thoughts? Different lines?
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