Flopped set, rivered full house. How do I proceed(scary board)

[AlcateL]

Comments on all streets please, results to follow.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Hero ($117.75)
UTG ($101.85)
MP ($97)
CO ($99)
Button ($119.55)
SB ($107.40)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
[color=#CC3333]UTG raises to $4</font>, [color=#666666]4 folds</font>, Hero calls $3.

Flop: ($8.50) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [color=#0000FF](2 players)</font>
[color=#CC3333]Hero bets $7</font>, UTG calls $7.

Turn: ($22.50) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [color=#0000FF](2 players)</font>
[color=#CC3333]Hero bets $20</font>, UTG calls $20.

River: ($62.50) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] [color=#0000FF](2 players)</font>

[Hattifnatt]

Bet 45-50 and call a push.

[kitaristi0]

He seems to like his hand enough to call the flop and turn, so just keep firing. About 2/3 of the pot seems good.

[4_2_it]

Board is only scary for villain. If he had two-pair on the flop/turn you would have heard about it. Looks like AK or AJ is going down. Bet 2/3 pot and hope for a push.

hit him again ...

I'd raise for 2/3 ish of the pot - and then call any reraise.

there are only 2 possible hands he has that beat you A6 or A10 - unless he's slowplaying AA or TT or lucked out with QQ. I'd say it's pretty likely he missed a flush draw and will fold to your river bet.[1]




[1] - highly recommend taking a few large pinches of salt with this advice on the grounds that I'm still new here...

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop: Hero is BB with 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
[color=#CC3333]UTG raises to $4, [color=#666666]4 folds, Hero calls $3.


[/ QUOTE ]

Not sure I like this call - UTG's position and bet would cause me to put him on a an A-Broadway combo or a pocket pair - If you don't think he is paired you need to push your edge here. Not raising means you are limiting yourself to the 1/8 chance of making a set b/c you will have to fold nearly every other time. On the plus side, you have some very reasonable implied odds if you make your set and your opponent pairs his A-broadway combo, nonetheless a call here has -EV to me. I would either push my edge or fold.

[ QUOTE ]
Flop: ($8.50) 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [color=#0000FF](2 players)
[color=#CC3333]Hero bets $7, UTG calls $7.



[/ QUOTE ]

Good raise, but probably not big enough - If you put your opponent on an A-broadway combo (as you should have b/c it's way more likely he has that than A-A), you have the best of him. Keep in mind that he has a dangerous second best hand with a lot of draws, the most likely 10-A straight, and a possible but less likely flush draw. He likely has an ace as well. If he has the broadway draw, his straight is gut shot (or even backdoor if he has an ace.) Playing it safe and giving your oppenent credit for the flush draw, then we can give UTG credit for having 15 outs (9 flush, 4 gut shot straight and 2 aces (b/c I think it is unlikely he has A-A in the hole)). This is a dangerous second best hand b/c while it is second best, if you give him fifteen outs, you also have to give him a 53% chance to complete his hand. If your opponent is using implied odds (and he is), this pot is worth a $7 to him call even if he knows what you have. If he had Q-Q he might just call, but I see him raising 10-10 to protect the flush and doing the same with Q-Q and K-K to test his hand and protect it from draws. If he has A-A he will sand bag, but he most likely does not.

[ QUOTE ]
Turn: ($22.50) Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [color=#0000FF](2 players)
[color=#CC3333]Hero bets $20, UTG calls $20.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the scare card - his $20 dollar call tells me he either made his straight or has A-Q, A-10, Q-Q, or 10-10). You're $20 should have been put in on the last round.

[ QUOTE ]
River: ($62.50) A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] [color=#0000FF](2 players)

[/ QUOTE ]

All-in, maybe through a check-raise if you think he will bet. The ace has most likely has saved you from your pre-flop -EV call and small raise after the flop. The ace is not so bad of a scare card. Your opponent's winning hands at this point are A-A-A-A, A-A-A-Q-Q, A-A-A-10-10, Q-Q-Q-A-A or 10-10-10-A-A and A-A-A-6-6 which can be made from 18 combinations of the remaining A's, 10's, Q's and 6.

Of his likely cards, he will lose with a straight (his hole cards are (K-J - or 16 combinations), A-A-A and w/ any blank hole card (72 combinations but A-J or A-K is the most likely (or 16 combinations)), or a busted flush draw (55 combinations but K Q high the most likely, J and suited connectors secondarily likely (approximatley 19 to 29 combinations for likely flush draw scenarios) and possibly, but highly unlikely, K-K (6 combinations).

If you give your opponent the benefit of every doubt, he will have 18 winning hands and 61 losing hands but which had a reasonable opportunity of winning on fourth street. If we assume he will play any suited or any ace preflop (he is a fish), then he will have 18 winning out of 107 probable combinations.

Tough spot to be, but if you can handle an $80 swing I would go for it. If you had bet out your set heavier on the flop, you most likely would not have to wonder if your low full house was good. If you're opponent is exceptionally good, then you should give your self a coin-flip on winning.

In a tournament, I would raise but probably fold to an all-in if I respected the player and had no feeling he had a straight.

[beavens]

&lt;unoriginality&gt;2/3 pot bet and push to a raise&lt;/unoriginality&gt;

i think the hand was played great.

[AlcateL]

I bet 50 on the river and called the push, he had AJ

I was worried about AQ and AT, until I looked at the actual hand playout and almost always two pair will be raising here, so a few percent of the time he has a higher house.

I respectfully disagree that a Q is a scare card, if KJ is calling a bet on this flop to make his Queen then hats off I suppose. (Am I wrong in thinking KJ is unlikely to call the flop bet?)

Thank you everyone for your replies [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

beavens I assume you're saying the hand was played okay (in that I was right to bet out (the amounts were correct also?) and not check raise on the flop etc)

The 66 call preflop has to be standard? Who here folds or reraises? (only played 40 hands at the table, opponent seems on the poor side of solid)

[beavens]

[ QUOTE ]
beavens I assume you're saying the hand was played okay (in that I was right to bet out (the amounts were correct also?) and not check raise on the flop etc)

The 66 call preflop has to be standard? Who here folds or reraises? (only played 40 hands at the table, opponent seems on the poor side of solid)

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah i thought you played everything properly preflop and on all streets.

some people might say fold preflop, but i'll call a 4xBB bet for set value.

[bizaff]

Absolutely call pre-flop, unless (and this is pretty rare) you know he's good enough to get away from TP to not pay you off $30 or so when you hit.