Is it healthy to be playing flush draws like this?

DontRaisePlz · #1 03-29-2005, 11:11 PM

PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 6 folds, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (4 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks, Button checks.

Turn: (2 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, UTG folds, Button folds, SB calls.

River: (6 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets...

Haven't had a hand like this in awhile. First hand, table stats are nothing out of the ordinary so assume fairly tight.

davelin · #2 03-29-2005, 11:13 PM

Check/call turn. Not sure about your river play, if you can push him off a hand, more power to you.

dawade · #3 03-29-2005, 11:31 PM

Haven't had a hand like this in awhile. First hand, table stats are nothing out of the ordinary so assume fairly tight.

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you tell these table stats? Some kind of software?

DontRaisePlz · #4 03-29-2005, 11:33 PM

Pokerstars shows the flops seen rate and average pot size. And thats all I had to go on as far as "reads" went.

Dave G. · #5 03-29-2005, 11:34 PM

The turn raise is pretty bad. You force the field to face 2 big bets cold in a small pot. Most people will just fold.

You are a 4.2:1 dog to make your flush on the river, making your equity about 19%. For a raise to be correct here you need at least 4 opponents to call your raise, so that you are contributing only 20% of the money into the pot. (This is still slightly -EV but you can make up the bets on the river when you hit your flush.)

By blasting the field away with a raise you ended up contributing 50% of the money with only a 19% chance of winning. This is very -EV.

If you were last to act, and you had 4 people who called a bet before you, then a raise might be good. Here, you want to go for overcalls, so just call the turn.

DoctorDrew · #6 03-30-2005, 12:10 AM

You would also raise here to get people to fold so that your overcard can earn you some outs. The check through on the flop means there probably isn't a K out there, so you want T, better kicker to fold. I don't know if this makes its +EV, but it makes the EV better.

ArturiusX · #7 03-30-2005, 12:12 AM

Bad raise.

keikiwai · #8 03-30-2005, 12:16 AM

You don't have many outs with the T. There's three Ts, but the board has 2 spades and you have a crappy kicker. I definitely wouldn't give the full three outs for the T... maybe 2.

If a T falls and you bet and someone raises?

In other words your flush draw is more important than your overcard here, so don't raise... keep everyone in, and check fold on the river....

DoctorDrew · #9 03-30-2005, 12:22 AM

I wasn't arguing this is the correct play in this hand. I was talking about the theory underlying a raise in this situation.

Dave G. · #10 03-30-2005, 12:49 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You would also raise here to get people to fold so that your overcard can earn you some outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

The question was specifically about how to play this as a flush draw, but I can't see myself raising even if I thought it was good now. We have a tiny pot with, barring the flush draw, an awful hand. Taking risks in small pots with weak holdings is a good way to lose money.

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know if this makes its +EV, but it makes the EV better.

[/ QUOTE ]

The EV may be marginally, very marginally, better, but still a long way behind just calling.

Note that even calling here is marginal. Hero is getting only 3:1 on his call. Even if you add 2 outs for the Ts, you still need 3.2:1 to call. The +EV in this call relies on at least one overcall.