Can I possibly be ahead here?

[AlmightyJay]

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Maybe he flopped a flush draw, I've seen lots of bad players play one like this. Maybe he's just a donk who decided to raise for no apparent reason. Getting 11:1, I think this is a terrible fold (without reads). Not to mention betting and then folding to a single raise on the same street is usually a really bad idea.


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[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] Come on - he's raising a PFR'er after a flop 3-bet and turn lead. He doesn't have a flush draw.
In the heat of battle I might call this as well, but I don't know how often people at 2/4 coldcall with A6 - which is about the worst hand he could have that you could hope for. This is not a bad fold by any means without a read; and saying that the bet/fold line sucks in general is pretty gay.

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Are you kidding me? We can't assume every unknown player is a solid, thinking player. I always assume the opposite when I don't have a read, because there are far more lost, clueless players than there are good ones. Bad players don't care that you 3-bet or capped preflop. That's 100% meaningless to them. They're not thinking about what you have. They're only thinking about what they have. And there are a lot of players who think, "I have a flush draw I'm going to make a flush let me pump the pot I'm going to win." I can't even count the number of times I've had people cap flush draws heads up against me.

Bet/fold, at least at low limits, tends to get noticed, and will frequently make even terrible players take bluff-raise shots at you.

[Aaron W.]

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Well I'm still not sure, he showed queens for a set on the turn. Maybe I would play it the same way again next time, it's probably such a close decision it's not worth worrying that much over. What about this a few hands later, different opponent:

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. MP2 posts a blind of $2.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, Button calls, UTG folds.

Turn: (8.25 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 11.25 BB

I really don't want to pay another two bets, he's shown a huge amount of strength, especially flat calling preflop allowing the blinds in. Any disagreement? I suspect he's got a set of aces, although of course I'll never know.

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That's an ugly ugly fold. Villain could reasonably have two pair that's not AK... unless the epidemic of cold-calling Axs has suddenly been stopped. You would help yourself tremendously (in both cases) if you paid more attention to the game and got some real reads on these guys.

You should also stop worrying about making good folds. It's much better to learn how to make solid bets/raises when you have the best of it. If you have a LAG image, then you need to pay these things off even more.

Suppose that you have the best hand 5% of the time (a little conservative). Suppose that 25% of the time, he has two pair - not AK. Then you've got 9 outs to win. That comes in about 20% of the time. And suppose the river goes for one bet and nobody ever folds (very reasonable) -- so you always call the raise, check-call the river (and he's always betting the river).

5% of the time, you win 13.25 BB.
20% of 25% of the time, you win 13.25 BB.
The rest of the time (80% of 25% and 75%), you lose another 2 BB.

EV = .05*(13.25) + .20*.25*(13.25) + .20*.80*(-2) + .70*(-2)
= .6625 + .6625 - .32 - 1.4
= -.395 BB

Paying off this hand is *AT WORST* about a 1 SB error, even though you're throwing in two big bets. The reason is that the pot is BIG.

Just for fun, suppose you actually have the best hand just 8% of the time.

EV = .08*(13.25) + .20*.25*(13.25) + .20*.75*(-2) + .67*(-2)
= 1.06 + .6625 - .32 - 1.34
= .0805

Hmmmm... do you understand why folding decent hands is big pots is a very very stupid thing to do?

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
5% of the time, you win 13.25 BB.
20% of 25% of the time, you win 13.25 BB.
The rest of the time (80% of 25% and 75%), you lose another 2 BB.

EV = .05*(13.25) + .20*.25*(13.25) + .80*.25*(-2) + .75*(-2)
= .6625 + .6625 - .4 - 1.5
= -.775 BB


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fyp, i think [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[RevAgain]

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That's an ugly ugly fold. Villain could reasonably have two pair that's not AK... unless the epidemic of cold-calling Axs has suddenly been stopped.


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No he couldn't, the guy isn't a complete idiot else I would have noticed by then and 2/4 is incredibly weak tight. Almost always two pair is check calling, if he thinks he has the best hand he would go for a check raise.
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You would help yourself tremendously (in both cases) if you paid more attention to the game and got some real reads on these guys.


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Really not necessary, I play much higher limits when I'm concentrating and beat 2/4 very easily multitabling or running a couple of tables in the background when it's slow at work. My bad play annoys me just as much at 2/4 as 15/30 though, hence the post, as I believe I have become too loose postflop at 2/4, believing that there really are all these maniacs out there, it's just not true, the vast majority of players at 2/4 are extremely weak/tight postflop (and normally too loose preflop).

There are a lot of bad aggressive players but they are usually visible very quickly. When someone starts playing this aggressively out of the blue they have a hand.

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You should also stop worrying about making good folds. It's much better to learn how to make solid bets/raises when you have the best of it. If you have a LAG image, then you need to pay these things off even more.


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I'm not worrying about good folds, I'm worred about bad calls [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]. See above. I have absolutely no worries about maximising value when I have the best hand in limit hold'em games (sadly not in pot/no-limit) but am worried that I am throwing away bets using the justification that the player could be a maniac all of a sudden even though I am all but certain I am beaten and don't have odds to continue.
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Suppose that you have the best hand 5% of the time (a little conservative). Suppose that 25% of the time, he has two pair - not AK. Then you've got 9 outs to win.


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5% is reasonable for having the best hand, he just might be on a pair and a flush draw, and I don't think it's conservative at all. I'm afraid I think the chances of him having two pair and not AK are much much smaller than 25% though. He will be too afraid of me having AK/AA/KK myself to keep pushing. I cannot emphasise how weak the betting is after the flop at 2/4. I will reraise on a flop with TPTK on a rags flop with a king and be shown pocket aces at the end regularly without any further aggression from the guy with aces.

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Hmmmm... do you understand why folding decent hands is big pots is a very very stupid thing to do?

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Of course, which is why I asked the question as it's the biggest mistake you can make in limit hold'em. In this case however I disagree with the basis of your maths, I just don't see him having a hand as bad as two pair without the AK. I have played a lot of 2/4 multitabling recently to clear bonuses and I would happily bet 100 dollars to get 10 back that he had better hand.

Differing opinion appreciated of course, I'll certainly not try to tighten up any further, I really do think you misunderstand the way most people play the game at this limit, if I thought he thought he could make me fold, I would call obviously, but I see zero chance that this is a bluff and he can't possibly expect me to fold.

Your maths is all fine no doubt, and thanks for taking the time, but my read gives very different figures to start out on...

[McGahee]

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believing that there really are all these maniacs out there, it's just not true, the vast majority of players at 2/4 are extremely weak/tight postflop (and normally too loose preflop).
There are a lot of bad aggressive players but they are usually visible very quickly. When someone starts playing this aggressively out of the blue they have a hand.


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Yeah, that's pretty much what I was getting at. I don't know why Jay wants to equate "bad, lost, clueless players" with players who go crazy with draws in the face of constant aggression. There are a few of these people, but to assume an unknown is such a maniac is ridiculous. MOST bad players are bad because they're too loose PF, and too passive postflop with good/marginal hands. It doesn't take a "good thinking player" to raise when they have a monster.

I'm obviously not a math whiz like Aaron, but it should be pointed out that a lot of your 2-pair outs will only get you a chop, and you're drawing dead often to a set (as much as the 1st hand looked like QQ when I first saw it, this one looks like 77).
FWIW, I can't remember the last time I saw anybody raise with a flush draw on 4th street; I'm not sure what game these guys are playing but I'm pretty sure that's not very common below 10/20.

[Aaron W.]

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I'm obviously not a math whiz like Aaron, but it should be pointed out that a lot of your 2-pair outs will only get you a chop, and you're drawing dead often to a set (as much as the 1st hand looked like QQ when I first saw it, this one looks like 77).

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Whooops! That's a bad mistake to be making. A quick estimate would be about a .22 BB error and I'm too lazy to go back and run the numbers.

The way things are lined up in the original estimate, Hero is drawing dead 70% of the time, which I think is a far more bleak picture than it really should be. That's also why I think 25% is a fair (if not a little conservative) number to be giving villain for holding two pair not AK.

But as OP pointed out, these are reads and estimates based on experience, and we aren't looking at this with the same experience.

[Shillx]

You played this one perfectly IMO.

[TomBrooks]

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I think there's a strong case for dropping this on the turn.

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TURN: Fold this was my first reaction, but because it put two spades on the board, I'd have to wonder if the Button was overplaying a flush draw of maybe had A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] for a chop but raised because of the flush chances. If it was heart I'd fold, otherwise I feel compelled to call down. This is a place where a good read could help a lot. It's hard to get that good of a read online though, and I think it's very difficult when multitabling three or more.

RIVER: I like the check/call. I think your chances of being ahead are less than 50-50, so betting 1 to win 1 would not make sense. If you bet, it would seem difficult to fold to a raise - then you'd have to put in another bet with less than even chances.

[TomBrooks]

Hand 2

Turn fold looks OK to me. A read would help here a lot also. Since button cold called your preflop raise, he could have AA, KK or AK. Even AQ beats you. I can't think of much that doesn't beat you that most players would have.

[SNOWBALL138]

When people are getting for example 9-1 on a river call they think "if my hand is good 10% of the time then I break even"

If they play 14 hands in a row without their hand being good, they start to make posts like this one, and sometimes they begin to make weak laydowns. Can you imagine missing 8 flush draws in a row and then refusing to draw at flushes because you imagine that you had wrongly assessed the odds of flushing?

This is a 2/4 game, and you have no read, and you have to call. As Ed Miller says, "Pay off with confidence"*

*Disclaimer: In no way are the above statements meant to imply that you should never fold a good hand when you have a read or the board is scary or the pot is small.