Regarding Jek's/BW's break-even points for BBJ (long)

[jek187]

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This is really two questions:

1. When is the amount I pay towards the jackpot +EV for the prize?
2. How does it affect my win rate vs. a normal non-drop game?

While #1 could be +EV, it could make #2 -EV and vice versa.

Think of it more like a carribean stud jp drop. At a certain point it becomes +EV. Same idea. Or for that matter, the lottery.

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1) http://www.bonuswhores.com/party-poker.php. Although, as I said, these numbers will be fine tuned relatively soon.

2) Your WR just from poker will be lower, but your overall long-run win rate, including promotions, will be higher than if you had played a normal table. If the BBJ is below the above mentioned thresholds, then your WR, even with all long-run promotions figured in, will still be lower than if you had played a normal table.

[J_B]

By $1, there should be a certain # where at all levels the $0.50 to win is +EV. Of course based on amount you'd get for winning, table share, etc. This # comes from chance of hitting vs. the amount you win. This has nothing to do with the stakes of the gamne or your win rate at the game.

ie: JP will be hit every X number of hands therefore # of hands * $0.50 = amount jp needs to be to be +EV.

The math of this is simlar to http://www.math.sfu.ca/~alspach/comp29/

Or this one: http://www.math.sfu.ca/~alspach/comp46.pdf

Now of course there is the rare instance where someone folds the 1 hand that would have made it. But, just the strait odds would probably be enough to answer question #1.

So, all this leads me to:

If we assume his math to be accurate:

We have a 1 in 155 000 chance of hitting it.

So, 155000 * $0.50 = $77500 for a $0.50 jackpot chance to be an even chance.

[MicroBob]

haven't gone to the links....but you have to also consider that party 'rakes' 10% that they keep for themselves...and they also leave a certain percentage to 'seed' the next jackpot.

Also....if the links didn't provide for the possibility of someone folding their 88 on flop of AQJ and thus missing their chance to catch runner-runner quads then it is definitely adding unwarranted EV to it.

[RollaJ]

I think also that at 2-4 you have a greater chance of hitting as people wont fold any suited connectors or 1 gappers for $2 preflop. At 10-20 it is expensive to limp with 45s, at 2-4 it is not, as it is only $2....and you are more likely to have 7 people seeing the flop