Very bad run

[gulebjorn]

[ QUOTE ]
you lose much more to sets. I mean if I play every set with a check call flop, check call turn, value bet river regardless of what shows up, I take like 70 BBs right there. and unfortunately there are guys who take this line with missed draws

[/ QUOTE ]

In my limited experience, a lot of players lack the patience to play their set like that. They'll either throw in a massive overbet on the flop or turn, or at least at the river. I rarely see value bets with a set. But when i do, it does hurt and you're right about that.

In reverse, missed draws usually lack the balls to bluff any decent amount on the river. If i see a line like you described with two to a flush on the board, it's usually an easy call on the river.

But like you said, it's hard to tell the difference sometimes, and if you end up on the wrong side of 60-40 often enough, it'll start to hurt. But that doesn't mean the 60 won't take it down in the long run.

Edit: the examples you describe are of course bad beats. But look at the bright side (i hope i get the quote right):
"Unlike many in this forum seem to think, the plural of anecdote is not data."