Sexy draw easy turn check?

Digs · #1 08-26-2005, 02:44 AM

SB is TAG build, i've only had 15 hands agianst him so far
UTG is your typical LP, but raises pf a decent bit more.

Obviously flop play for value, the turn's my question clearly.

Sets up a c/r if I hit the 12 outer, I lose the pot when I dont pretty much.

Standard or can I make these guys fold enough?

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, Button calls, SB 3-bets, 1 fold, UTG calls, Hero calls, Button calls.

Flop: (13 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, Button folds, SB raises, UTG calls, Hero 3-bets, SB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (11 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks.

River: (11 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, UTG folds, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 12 BB

SparkyDog · #2 08-26-2005, 02:51 AM

easy turn check. they both stuck around for 3 bets on the flop so one on the turn isn't going to scare them both off.

Digs · #3 08-26-2005, 02:53 AM

Thanks,
DERG is affecting my confidance in my plays.

wackjob · #4 08-26-2005, 02:58 AM

Bet the turn!

SparkyDog · #5 08-26-2005, 02:59 AM

why?

wackjob · #6 08-26-2005, 03:02 AM

I think the chance of getting people to fold + the chance you make your hand is worth a turn bet here. You get to check behind on the river if you miss & think they will call again.

SparkyDog · #7 08-26-2005, 03:11 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think the chance of getting people to fold + the chance you make your hand is worth a turn bet here.

[/ QUOTE ]

1) 20% a flush comes in
2) 6% you spike an ace
3) 6% you river a one card gutshot draw

Except for the flush neither one of those hands are really worth writing home about. So, let's say 25% you're hand is good, which makes it 3-1. Not getting value on the turn bet alone. How often exactly do you think they're folding? I'd say less than 5% of the time.

You do get to check behind on the river if you don't improve, but that's a pretty worthless benefit since ace-high is almost certainly no good here.

However if you check behind you lose nothing when you don't improve and when you hit your flush you might get one of them to lead into you so you can raise them. the implied odds of your hand are a lot higher if you check, because all you're going to get out of them on the river is one bet more than likely, if you hit.

Digs · #8 08-26-2005, 03:13 AM

[ QUOTE ]

3) 6% you river a one card gutshot draw

[/ QUOTE ]

Dont think it changes the answer but we have an oesd here.

SparkyDog · #9 08-26-2005, 03:15 AM

You're right. If you "knew" that the straight will scoop 100% of the time, then a bet is right at breakeven. But since it's not to the nuts and it's a pretty weak straight draw I still prefer to check the turn.

Digs · #10 08-26-2005, 03:23 AM

Why doesnt the straight scoop ~99%?

I dont see how anyone gets here w/o the 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]