Post for david...

[andyfox]

By "hard," I assume Josh meant hard to make money. It might be more of a challenge, and give one more of an opporutunity to think, if one played against only world class players, and when one of them open-raised, 3-bet them with 7-2o. But I would think it would be hard to make money doing that.

[David Sklansky]

First I want to say that I have read all the replies and you guys sure are a lot smarter than the posters on the Psychology or WPT forums.

Here are some points:

1. Anything I say about this is without the use of computer simulations. Thus they may be off a little.

2. The reason HPFAP was written was simple. To make me money. The more people who win the more I make. If a piece of advice increases the best players EV by 3% while causing others to become losers, you probably ain't gonna read it in one of my books.

3. I said you should play 73 suited three handed and gave some mathematical justifications. I wouldn't be surprised if any two suited can be played.

4. It is the unsuited hands like Q5 that you will never see me recommending to the general reader. Because unlike suited hands, how it will do depends so much on how well you play and the skill and STYLE of your opponent.

5. As many have pointed out there are a whole slew of hands that are real close. Taken in a vacuum your EV is almost unaffected by your decision. When faced with these hands you need to consider five things.

A. Does volatility matter?

B. How well do you play?

C. What are his preflop raising requirements.?

D. How well and what style does he play post flop.

E. Will it be to your advantage or disadvantage for future hands if people see that you defend your blind a lot? (It can be to your disadvantage if it disrupts a tight image that helps you get away with bluffs.)

The answers to these questions can account for differences about whether to play at least twenty per cent of the hands.

I will revisit this thread later.

[rigoletto]

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This sounds like the argument that unsuited 76 is better than suited 76 b/c you won't get tied to the pot with the unsuited version.

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I need to read it again. Josh is basically saying stay away from dominated hands, which sounds fine in the context.

The post is however not really dealing with blind steal situation, but rather with calling in the blinds in general and there is a big difference between Q4 HU and multiway.

[magithighs]

I'm usually playing in 10/20 (not so liberal as 15/30 party blinds), and I'm a very tight defender (SB steal fold at 80% and BB steal fold at 60%).

In the BB i'm a (.19) BB/hand and in the SB i'm a (.11) BB/hand. Overall, I don't think I'm suffering too much as I'm a 2.92 bb/100 player over my past 80k hands.

I'm really interested in this, as I find the "regulars" i play with in my B&M 10/20 game are way looser in their blind defense and I'm wondering if this is a leak in my game.

What are other's loose defense results? Is anyone a postive BB/hand blind player?

Cheers
Magi

[J.A.Sucker]

I don't know whether people are or aren't playing "for free" against your blinds, though there are some posters on here (who I will not name) who do play this tight.

As for my attitude as you perceive it, you're free to have your opinion, and I don't really need my ego stroked or derided. I'm a grown man who's comfortable with myself; I really don't care. I'll admit it here for everyone to read:

Yours >>>> Mine.

You win. Happy?

[Nomar]

" 2. The reason HPFAP was written was simple. To make me money. The more people who win the more I make. If a piece of advice increases the best players EV by 3% while causing others to become losers, you probably ain't gonna read it in one of my books. "

Can you write Holdem Poker Thats Really For Advanced Players, instead of just break even players ?

[Steve Giufre]

Thanks for the reply, and sorry if I was a touch of an idiot in the WPT forum. I guess its really not fair for me to imply you have any sort of obligation to post here and teach us donkeys everything we cant figure out on our own. We all stand to learn a ton when you post anything related to poker strategy, so I guess I feel like we are missing out because we dont get your opinions all that much. I do see the point you make as far as HFAP is concerned, and perhaps 5,000 posts here wouldnt do wonders for your book sales either. Anyhow thanks again for looking this over.

[Steve Giufre]

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You want a fold and its not close. The only exception he plans on folding extremely often.

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Im sure you right in most cases, although you gotta admit anybody who is dumb enough to factor in whether or not you want action into his decision probably isnt gonna be a postflop ass kicker.

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
"JA, even though I dont really like the tone of your posts basically ever"

I haven't read the rest of the thread yet but this just made me stop and go "wow". JASucker is one of the most unoffensive posters around, you are crazy to think that.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. He is one of a handfull of posters I always read.

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you're not discussing what hiatus over said.

i agree with two things:

1) JA is a fantastic poster and i read everything he posts on this (mid/high) forum.

2) some of his posts CAN come accross "knowitallish"

2a) one reason for this is because he has played a while and is a great player whose opinions one should respect and take to heart...im sure its not intentional. he was on the list of posters id like to meet, if just for a drink.

2b) if he does come off as knowitallish and he means it i still wouldn't hold it against him because of the overall quality of his posts and opinions.

all i know is i'd never want to dissuade him from posting.

now...onto the meat of this thread:

i have been thinking about this thread since it was posted and taking into into account with what another very winning player told me. i was taken aback by the # of hands he defends (calls) w/ in his bb closing the action getting 3:1.

but after thinking about it i came to a lot of the conclusions that were reached here so i wont regurgitate.

but then i came to think that in situations that are close, it does tend to matter to get higher ev even by small increments...

now the MAIN things i think matter are 1) your opponents raising standards and 2) your postflop skills.

now i can pretty accurately determine 1 and adjust accordingly...but in all honestly i think i, as many people, tend to overvalue 2. so i still fold the hands i would think dont matter much because if i DO overvalue 2, then it doesn't matter anyways...(T6o etc...)

-Barron

[David Sklansky]

Actually its not so simple and I will leave it to others. Anyway suppose you have Q4 offsuit and are raised by someone with any pair, any ace or any two cards that add up to 15 or more. Something like that anyway.

Next assume that your strategy is to fold on the flop if you don't pair and check and call all the way to the river if you do. Obviously if this strategy is profitable or close to it, regardless of your opponent play, then the preflop call is correct. Assuming the preflop prerequisites specified.

Simple math shows that this simple strategy makes the preflop call right if your opponent will always bet all three rounds. You will win more than half the time it goes to the river. It is also obvious that the preflop call is right if the player always bets the flop and then always checks if he can't beat you. The tougher calculations occur if we stipulate a bet on the turn is a favorite but not a certainty too represent a better hand. Now add in that only some of the turn bluffs or semi bluffs will result in a second bluff on the river. My guess is that against a player like this a simple check call strategy to the river will lose enough to make the preflop call wrong. If so we have more work to do.