J7 suited - keep fishin?

Pharity · #1 12-19-2005, 10:23 AM

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I think we should discount the set possibilities somewhat.

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I agree. But BB is getting 1:12 for a call, which makes it profitable to call with 2 pairs or (of course) a set. Maybe its better to cap it to cut down the odds (and you may - although unlikely - be ahead of UTG as well) and then just c/c the river. How about that?

Nick C · #2 12-19-2005, 10:47 AM

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I think we should discount the set possibilities somewhat.

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I agree. But BB is getting 1:12 for a call, which makes it profitable to call with 2 pairs or (of course) a set. Maybe its better to cap it to cut down the odds (and you may - although unlikely - be ahead of UTG as well) and then just c/c the river. How about that?

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If UTG has QJ, then we want BB in. If UTG has a set, we want BB to stay in. (If UTG has a set, we lose if the board pairs anyway, except on the 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].) There's a remote chance UTG has T8 and BB has 93, but I think we can mostly disregard that. T8 seems pretty unlikely for UTG.

It's when UTG has a worse straight (or something he's losing to us badly with) that we want to put pressure on BB, and even then we don't mind him staying in unless he has 4 outs or better. He's not folding anything we want him to except maybe two pair, and if his two pair is, say, 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], then he only has 3 outs against us, which isn't too troubling.

Since we only want to put pressure on him under a specific set of circumstances (and even then it's close), I think we can let him call just one more bet.

There is the question of whether or not we have a cap for value, though, and I'm not sure.

Pharity · #3 12-19-2005, 11:04 AM

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If UTG has QJ, then we want BB in. If UTG has a set, we want BB to stay in.

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If UTG has a set and BB has two pair we want BB to fold. He is getting 1:12 with 2 pair if you call, 2:13 if you cap. And yes, if UTG has QJ - we want BB to stay. But if UTG only has a lone J though we want BB to fold 2 pairs.

Nick C · #4 12-19-2005, 11:16 AM

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If UTG has QJ, then we want BB in. If UTG has a set, we want BB to stay in.

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If UTG has a set and BB has two pair we want BB to fold. He is getting 1:12 with 2 pair if you call, 2:13 if you cap. And yes, if UTG has QJ - we want BB to stay. But if UTG only has a lone J though we want BB to fold 2 pairs.

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UTG is pretty unlikely to have a lone jack.

If UTG has a set, then we're going to lose if the board pairs (unless it pairs with the 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]) whether BB stays in or not. If BB has two pair versus UTG's set, BB has 0-4 outs. But he doesn't have any unique outs against us.

Pharity · #5 12-19-2005, 11:39 AM

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UTG is pretty unlikely to have a lone jack.

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Of course, my bad, i misread the board. Somehow thought there was 4 to a straight on board.

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If UTG has a set, then we're going to lose if the board pairs (unless it pairs with the 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]) whether BB stays in or not. If BB has two pair versus UTG's set, BB has 0-4 outs. But he doesn't have any unique outs against us.

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Hmm. You are right. I guess you stick to your initial conclusion to just call? It is probably correct.

Nick C · #6 12-19-2005, 12:26 PM

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Hmm. You are right. I guess you stick to your initial conclusion to just call? It is probably correct.

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The decision seems close to me.

One factor in favor of a cap is that our hand is much stronger than UTG should be giving us credit for.

On the other hand, I'm having a hard time putting BB on less than two pair. Is he now all of a sudden raising A9 because he caught second pair or J8 because he picked up a straight draw? It doesn't seem that likely to me.

It doesn't really matter what I put BB on, though. What counts is how strong UTG thinks BB's hand is. And, in fact, I think most 2/4 players tend to show respect when someone wakes up with a turn raise on a super-coordinated board.

I think UTG will have a set or a straight, the majority of the time. He'll have something we didn't expect at all occasionally too, and the combos do seem to favor us overall -- especially 3-way, if we can count on BB hanging around. But QJ is the only hand we know UTG will 3-bet here.

crunchy1 · #7 12-19-2005, 12:30 PM

You guys seem too focused on how we're going to lose this hand on the river. You are not nearly focused on the fact that we're holding the second nuts (with redraws) in a 2/4 game. I think you're giving way too much credit for being up against the nuts on the turn.

The only situation that I can find where we don't have an equity advantage in this pot is where we know that either UTG/BB holds exactly QJ (to retract a previous statement I made earlier - even when we are up against this hand we have 9 outs against ALL combinations of QJ - given that we're holding the J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]). There's no way that our range can be that specific and we're certainly getting value when we're ahead.

Nick C · #8 12-19-2005, 12:42 PM

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You guys seem too focused on how we're going to lose this hand on the river.

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I'm more worried that we're behind now.

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You are not nearly focused on the fact that we're holding the second nuts (with redraws) in a 2/4 game.

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I like this argument. Still, I do think UTG's turn 3-bet says "monster" loud and clear. And partly this is because we're in a 2/4 game.

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I think you're giving way too much credit for being up against the nuts on the turn.

The only situation that I can find where we don't have an equity advantage in this pot is where we know that either UTG/BB holds exactly QJ (to retract a previous statement I made earlier - even when we are up against this hand we have 9 outs against ALL combinations of QJ - given that we're holding the J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]). There's no way that our range can be that specific and we're certainly getting value when we're ahead.

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I agree that we have an equity advantage so long as no one has QJ.

For the record, we effectively have about 9.5 outs versus Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Jx (we can't catch the Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] if it's in UTG's hand, but we can chop versus him if a different queen falls) and 10 outs versus a QJ hand with no clubs.