Close one - counting outs excercise :)

[Zameus]

Sorry, I'm confused... you're all commenting on the flop play and not the turn play? The flush draw doesn't get picked up until the turn right? On the flop you only have a nice multi way straight draw but that's moot because you were the better not the caller anyway.

Also..19 outs right?

3(A) + 3(K) + 3(Q) + 4(Nines) + 9(spades)= 22 outs minus the 3 spades double counted= 19.

The ace isn't double counted as a spade.

There's only one card to come and 43 left in the deck right? That's 2.25 to 1 roughly... even assuming villian doesn't hold any of your outs (unlikely) you're only getting 1 to 1 on your money on the turn. How is that not a fold?

I must really be misreading this.

The guy probably has the top set JJ because of the pot reraise. That means your 1.5 to 1 dog on flop and 1.5 to 1 dog on turn.

[LearnedfromTV]

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry, I'm confused... you're all commenting on the flop play and not the turn play? The flush draw doesn't get picked up until the turn right? On the flop you only have a nice multi way straight draw but that's moot because you were the better not the caller anyway.

Also..19 outs right?

3(A) + 3(K) + 3(Q) + 4(Nines) + 9(spades)= 22 outs minus the 3 spades double counted= 19.

The ace isn't double counted as a spade.

There's only one card to come and 43 left in the deck right? That's 2.25 to 1 roughly... even assuming villian doesn't hold any of your outs (unlikely) you're only getting 1 to 1 on your money on the turn. How is that not a fold?

I must really be misreading this.

[/ QUOTE ]

19 is right to make a flush or straight, but the 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is probably not an out, so you win 18/42 of the time (lets say the times you have another out or two, like the T, or the times he's straight bluffing or better a worse draw, balance with the times he has you blocked.) Since a lot of the hands that have a set have blockers/share some of your outs, it is probably better to be safe and say you have a little less than 18/42, so say 42% equity (instead of 43).

You have to push because the pot will be too big to fold for 100 more even with a pair of tens.

So you are putting in 1494 to win 1494*2+1332 = 4320.

.42*4320 = $1814, so pushing is the play.

If you like to think in terms of odds the pot is laying you 2-1 (roughly, exactly it's 2826:1494) and your odds against making the winner are ~ 1.35 to 1, or slightly worse than 24:18)

Edited to fix the math a bit.

[LearnedfromTV]

[ QUOTE ]
During the hand I forgot that I had 10s so counted only 17 outs (I assumed he had set and maybe one of my outs as JJxx may not play preflop so high card is probable).
I am slightly below 2-1 pot odds (I think its 1-1.8) and about 17-44 to hit which is 1-1.6 still its a call even with 17 outs.
During the hand I thought it closer. Now I see its easy call.
Btw I called and sucked out.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you negate board-pairing spades from your outs you can account for two more cards (the JJ or TT in his hand), so there are 42 unknown cards, not 44. 18 is the right number of outs too, as you noticed later, the 6 is the only bad spade.

[Zameus]

Thanks man, I did forget to factor in the 6 of spades. Also, I meant to say roughly 2:1 on your money but I think that was obvious. I don't know how the hell I figured 2.25 to 1 though. That came straight from my arse. My apologies.

[Filip]

I'll start a new thread so ill not hijack this one with my question in my 2nd post.