$27... another hand in push fold mode... AQ

PokerStars Game #3469886808: Tournament #17214164, Hold'em No Limit - Level VII (100/200) - 2005/12/29 - 13:40:36 (ET)
Table '17214164 1' Seat #2 is the button
Seat 2: SAVATA (2255 in chips)
Seat 3: Golden Corn (3410 in chips)
Seat 4: diller (1355 in chips)
Seat 5: boonie69 (3320 in chips)
Seat 6: manub (1685 in chips)
Seat 8: DoggerPA (1270 in chips)
Seat 9: galvan (205 in chips)
SAVATA: posts the ante 25
Golden Corn: posts the ante 25
diller: posts the ante 25
boonie69: posts the ante 25
manub: posts the ante 25
DoggerPA: posts the ante 25
galvan: posts the ante 25
Golden Corn: posts small blind 100
diller: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to DoggerPA [Qd As]
boonie69: folds
manub: raises 1460 to 1660 and is all-in
DoggerPA: ???????

[Nato76]

I will let the more experience posters respond but I would fold this. Looks like it's a coinflip.

Maybe I'm just a wuss...but I never risk my entire chip stack pre flop on AQ...not even AQs.... Hell.. I'd be folding AK in that position, UNLESS the raiser had been making some stupid plays...and even THEN it's a coin flip AT BEST.

[UMTerp]

Folding AK there would be terrible.

Here is my thinking process and tell me where i am wrong

Only 2 players have been eliminated so far... Last few hands have been allin and everyone folds...

If there are 4 hands in a row where it is push/fold then we know with the 100/200blinds we are getting to that stage with 7 still in. I need to find a hand soon and I may not see a better one than this for a while.

I only have 1200 chips left and after the next few hands will only have 900 left so i need to look for a chance to double up.

I put him on a range of any pair, Any ace with 9+ kicker, KQ and maybe KJ.

that makes me a conflip agisnt 10 hand
A big dog to 3 pairs
A dog to Ak
A fav to 5 other hands.

I think this makes it a true coinflip decision.

Now if i had thought about it like this before I made the call i would have folded... interesting... I figured I looked good.

I just need about 3 minutes to make decissions and i could make the right one.

I call, he shows 44 and it holds up

[Nato76]

I rather not take a coinflip that early in a sng. I much rather wait to push in position. Dogger you have a pm. My email is acting up.

Ahhh... but here is the question, there are still 7 people left so it looks like it is early, but it is not...

THe blinds are already 100/200 with a $25 ante and i am at 1200

Maybe I am wrong, maybe this is still early and I have time before i need to flip the coin, but at some time it is probably going to need to happen.

Again, writing it all out I think ok maybe i made the wrong call but i thought it was good when i made it.

this is why we are here right, to learn

[ZeroPointMachine]

[ QUOTE ]
Here is my thinking process and tell me where i am wrong

Only 2 players have been eliminated so far... Last few hands have been allin and everyone folds...

If there are 4 hands in a row where it is push/fold then we know with the 100/200blinds we are getting to that stage with 7 still in. I need to find a hand soon and I may not see a better one than this for a while.

I only have 1200 chips left and after the next few hands will only have 900 left so i need to look for a chance to double up.

I put him on a range of any pair, Any ace with 9+ kicker, KQ and maybe KJ.

that makes me a conflip agisnt 10 hand
A big dog to 3 pairs
A dog to Ak
A fav to 5 other hands.

I think this makes it a true coinflip decision.

Now if i had thought about it like this before I made the call i would have folded... interesting... I figured I looked good.

I just need about 3 minutes to make decissions and i could make the right one.

I call, he shows 44 and it holds up

[/ QUOTE ]

You are thinking along the right lines, but this analysis is flawed. You can't just pick a range of hands and assume they are all equally likely. Unpaired hands can be made more wys than paired hands. Your cards also change the number of possible ways he can make each hand.

In this hand he is less likely to have AA or QQ than 66. Because you hold one of the aces.

AK can be made 16 ways and a pair can only be made 6 ways. When you hold an Ace then AK(or Ax) can only be made 12 ways, but it is still twice as likely as JJ.

Can you see how this reduces the chance that you are dominated and increases the chance that you are dominating him.

[tjh]

[ QUOTE ]
Here is my thinking process and tell me where i am wrong


If there are 4 hands in a row where it is push/fold then we know with the 100/200blinds we are getting to that stage with 7 still in.


[/ QUOTE ]

Perhaps, seems to me though that the all-in stage is usually controlled by one or two persons when it starts with this many players. A read on the pusher would be usefull here. If they have been the aggressor then you can expand the pushing range.

[ QUOTE ]

I need to find a hand soon and I may not see a better one than this for a while.


I only have 1200 chips left and after the next few hands will only have 900 left so i need to look for a chance to double up.

I put him on a range of any pair, Any ace with 9+ kicker, KQ and maybe KJ.

that makes me a conflip agisnt 10 hand
A big dog to 3 pairs
A dog to Ak
A fav to 5 other hands.

I think this makes it a true coinflip decision.


[/ QUOTE ]
Without taking into account that you have an Ace and A Queen.

There are 6 ways of getting any pair.
So any pair hands Villain has 78 possibilities.

7 other hands that can be made 16 diffferent ways for a total of 112 ways.

So Villain is playing one of these 190 possibles.

AA KK QQ you are behind. 18 hands.
AK you are behind 16 hands

You are a fav to AJ AT A9 KJ KQ. 80 hands

Coinflip to the rest AQ an 22->jj 76 hands

Behind 34, ahead 80, coinflip 76.

Looks like a wee bit better than a coinflip.

Of course you having AQ cuts down on the probability of all the ace hands so you may still be correct. I just wanted to post soome numbers to show that AK is about three times as common as AA. The non-paired hands are easier to get so when you think villain has AA or AK he is 3/4 of the time going to have AK.

How do you do this calculation in real life...
I just weight the calling range towards the non-paired hands. One non-paired hand equals about 3 paired hands in terms of frequency.

--
tjh

jmiller and tjh... thanks, i learned something today, greatly appreciated