Performify's Pigskin Picks - Week Eight

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Last week: 3-1, win on the Game of the Week.
19-14 for the season (57.6%), 5-2 on the game of the week (71%).

Last two weeks have delivered very solid results, running 8-3 with 2-0 on Game of the Week. And two of those losses could have easily been wins, with Bulger going down costing me StL/Indy, and Philly winning but failing to cover the extra half-point last week. This week I expect many games to be very close to the Vegas lines. I wouldn't be suprised to see a push or two this week. I will be running 3-2-2-1-1 on units in order, with possible additions later in the week of the lines make favorable moves.

Dallas -9 vs Arizona
Arizona is 1-4 ATS in their last five on the road, the Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in Dallas. Dallas is leading the NFL in time of possession (34:14), and Arizona is the second-worst rushing team in football which is going to make the time of possession discrepancy even worse. If it wasn't for halftime, its possible that Dallas would run out the entire game with a single scoring drive to win 7-0, but thanks to halftime and the resulting manditory change of possession we should see two scoring drives for the Cowboys and a single Arizona possession (whichever half they win posession via the cointoss) in which the Cardinals offense proceeds to go three & out, for a final score of 14-0. Game of the Week.

San Fran + 11 vs Tampa Bay
The 49ers are 9-1 at home against Tampa Bay. Tampa is 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games. Bucs QB Chris Simms is making his first start of the season in place of injured Brian Griese. 49ers will load against the run and force Simms to throw. On offense, the 49ers should have a much more consistent QB performance from Ken Dorsey over rookie Alex Smith. Wagerline has this game 66%-33% in favor of Tampa Bay which also makes this a strong pick against public opinion. I simply can't believe that Tampa with Simms is going to cover by double digits in San Fran. 24-14 for the 49ers cover. This is also not a bad place for a small moneyline play on San Fran to win outright. 24-14 Tampa for the SF cover. Game of the Weak, but play it anyways.

Kansas City +6 (-105) at San Diego
Chiefs have had two extra days of rest and preparation, thanks to playing on Friday last week. The KC coaches have also had two extra days to prepare, and they no doubt used some of that extra time to study the film from last week's Philly / SD matchup. Look for the Chiefs to emulate the way that Philly shut down LT last week. The Chiefs defense is certainly no Philly D, but the Chiefs will look do stack eight in the box against LT and again force Brees to pass over the top. 24-23 San Diego for the Chiefs cover (thats two TDs and three FGs for KC, FYI).

Detroit -3 (-105) vs Chicago
Detroit this year is 3-0 ATS at home, 3-0 ATS on turf, and 5-1 ATS overall. This is an important game for both teams, as the winner takes sole possession of first place in the stellar NFC North division. Home crowd noise against a struggling rookie QB will be the edge in this game - Detroit can very easily stack the line with eight in the box against TJones and the Bears run game, and force Orton to throw the ball in to the dangerous Detroit secondary (leading the NFC in INTs at 13) I'm going to keep backing the Lions until they lose another game ATS - Ultimately I believe the general public sees Detroit as more weak than they actually are, which leads to their lines being intentionally misweighted to cover the public perception. 21-17 Detroit.

Baltimore +10.5 at Pittsburgh
Purely a public opinion play. Pittsburgh is 79% - 21% favored via Wagerline, which is the largest discrepancy of the season. Baltimore's defense has been underperforming this year, but perhaps they can step up to the task on the national scene. However the Steelers are 10-0 at home on Monday nights under Cowher, and it looks like the Ravens are minus Ray Lewis. However they've still got the #1 pass defense so they should be able to jam agaist the run and hopefully create points off turnovers. 24-17 Pittsburgh for the Baltimore cover.

Oakland (-2) at Tennessee
Note: not currently strongly recommended as a formal pick, as I've started to doubt my analysis.
Needs more work up, but posted here for the meantime so its easy to grab again if I do come back to it.
The Raiders are 3-1 ATS in the last four with the Titans and 3-1 ATS in their last four overall. The Titans are 2-5 ATS in their last seven at home. Oakland continues to pound LaMont Jordan on the ground with 30+ touches. McNair is back but is still banged up, and the aggressive Oakland defense might just knock him out of the game entirely. The Raiders are generally terrible on the road (2-18 in their last 20) but they pull out the win here. 24-21 RRRRRaiders.

As usual, all picks archived on my blog, http://performify.com