Question about flush draw outs

[jackblack73]

You can't count what you don't know, so that's why you use 9/47. Obviously, if you know a club is burned you can adjust your probability to 8/46.

[Xhad]

Here's a simpler example. I randomly give you one card out of a full deck. The probability that that card is the A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is 1/52 right?

Now what if I deal myself five cards, then deal you a card. The probability that the card I give you will be the A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is still 1/52 because you don't know what my cards are, so you're still randomly getting one card out of 52. Get it?

[WhiteWolf]

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yeah i get that part. but when we count outs we don't factor in the amount of total cards left in the deck. that's why i'm saying it should be 6 outs, giving us 25% equity, not 9 outs giving us 35% equity.

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The odds -> equity tables assume you are using the standard way of counting outs, ie treating all other player's cards as "unknowns".

well, i guess so.. still seems strange to me though.

yeah but you still have to assume there are no clubs it seems.. i mean i get what the other poster said but it still seems odd.

[Xhad]

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yeah but you still have to assume there are no clubs it seems.. i mean i get what the other poster said but it still seems odd.

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No you don't. The part you're not getting is that when you say "I have 9 outs on the river out of 46 cards," that is counting the cards in the other players' hands. If you were assuming no one else was dealt a club, or that none of the burn cards were clubs either, then you would have 9 outs out of 25 cards (assuming a 10-handed game).

Going back to my single-deck game example, if I deal the cards to myself face-down, then your probability of drawing the A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is still 1/52 from your point of view. If I show you the five cards and none is the A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], your odds have improved to 1/47. If I show you the A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] from my pile, then obviously your odds of drawing it have decreased to zero.

ok, i think i get it now. just seemed counterintuitive initially. thanks.

If we follow your logic, we shouldn't count any card that has no chance of being dealt to us.

You're thinking that it's impossible to dealt a card that one of your opponent has. That's true, but it's just as impossible to dealt a card that's below the river. (cheating not withstanding)

i already said i got it, why are you posting this?