TT first hand PUSH !

[wiggs73]

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Or I double up and have twice the chance of winning this one.

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No.

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So therefore even a slight chance that they call with worse hands makes this a positive EV move.

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No.

[splashpot]

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Or I double up and have twice the chance of winning this one.

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No.

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So therefore even a slight chance that they call with worse hands makes this a positive EV move.

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No.

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Actually, that first one is true.....isn't it? Twice the chipEV = twice the chance of winning.

[tjh]

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Let me ask you this. Are you posting this hand here so you can get advice? Or are you just posting it so you can prove how wrong everyone is when they tell you how bad it is?

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No I am posting this because the topic has had much discussion in the past and many respected posters support a coinflip chance to double up early on in a tourney.

I was skeptical of such a play, but thought about when it might be useful, and frankly thought that the times it would be useful are limited indeed.

When I was faced with my pocket tens and making the dificult choice of limping for set value, figuring out how many callers I wanted, wondering about how many callers I might get being that I had no reads (first hand), I decided that this might be a good chance for such a move.

So I tried it.

No I am not looking for advice. I am adding a bit of evidence and experience to this forum regarding what they will call with very early in the tourney.

We all play very tight early on and we miss a bunch of donk chips that go in the middle for what may seem like no reason at all. Pushing early makes you look like a donk to the good players and may induce a call from them. And the donks, well they might just call because that is what they do. Usually some one looser than us gets those chips.. at first... till we get those same chips on the bubble.

That is all I was doing was adding some input and perhaps some discussion. I just forgot for a moment that to many users of this forum "discussion" is done with insults and rudeness.

[Burno]

No offense, but I see a lot of people push 99-JJ early like this, and it's usually done for one reason, no matter how they try to rationalize it. People push these hands because they are uncomfortable playing them postflop.

Since you've thought this through, how often will JJ-AA be in someone else's hand here?

[tjh]

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No offense, but I see a lot of people push 99-JJ early like this, and it's usually done for one reason, no matter how they try to rationalize it. People push these hands because they are uncomfortable playing them postflop.

Since you've thought this through, how often will JJ-AA be in someone else's hand here?

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I believe I had two players plus the blinds who had not acted before I pushed. Chance of JJ-AA is 4/17 per player so there is a pretty good chance. I believe two but maybe three players had limped. I would have to assume that they did not have JJ-AA but that some of the paint was already in play.

The chance of a slowplayed AA, KK by at least the first limper should be taken into account.

The chance that I am against JJ-KK and I win with a set should also be accounted for.

Serious analysis I find useful. Declaring a move as stupid without even a "Do you see why" is not helpful to anyone.

As for playing 99-JJ postflop. Not impossible, not even dificult, but not a guaranteed money maker either. 99-JJ are likely to lose value or percieved value when the flop comes. With 16 overcards the flop is more likely to cloud your perception of your position than improve it. If I end up in position then I can get away from a bad flop with little trouble. If someone calls behind me then it is likely going to take a bet to see where I am at and I have precious few chips for post flop play.

Alternate play suggestions.

Limp to catch a set and trap.
Bet to narrow the field
Fold. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[roundest]

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And your point is ??
I either bust out and start a new tourney and have a second chance to get a decent return on my money as I have almost no time invested. Or I double up and have twice the chance of winning this one. So therefore even a slight chance that they call with worse hands makes this a positive EV move.


The first couple hands are a special opportunity. Lots of maniac moves before the feeling that "time is invested and we should play seriously" mood sets in.

I think we should consider the first few hands an opportunity for some special strategy. By hand #5 unless I am seeing lots of madness I would NEVER try this. Hand #1 is different.

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Wow. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[tjh]

I did not have all that many SNG's in my Pokertracker DB. From what I did have I grabbed the hands from all the times that players went all-in and were called by another player in level one on party.

Here are they hands. They are paired or tripled for hands that are from the same all-in event. These are what they are pushing or calling a push with in level one.


[ Ac, Ah ]
[ Ks, Qh ]

[ Ad, Ac ]
[ Qs, Jc ]

[ 9s, 9c ]
[ 3s, 3c ]

[ Kc, Ks ]
[ 9s, 9c ]

[ Ad, Qh ]
[ 9s, 9c ]

[ Jc, 8c ]
[ 7d, 7c ]

[ Ks, Ts ]
[ Tc, Ad ]

[ Th, Td ]
[ Qs, Ad ]

[ As, Qs ]
[ 8c, 8h ]

[ Qs, Qd ]
[ Th, Ts ]

[ Kc, Jh ]
[ 7c, 7s ]

[ Ks, Ac ]
[ 9s, 9d ]

[ 6h, 6d ]
[ Ah, Ad ]

[ Qd, Kh ]
[ Kc, Ks ]
[ As, Ah ]

[ Jc, Jh ]
[ Kh, Ac ]

[ Ad, As ]
[ Ks, 4d ]

[ Qd, Qs ]
[ Td, Ad ]
[ Jh, Js ]

[ Jh, Ks ]
[ 7d, 7h ]
[ Jc, As ]

I see 11 hands that are better than a pair of tens. Out of the 39 hands that I show that makes them look pretty good.
11 hands that are better preflop.
28 that I tie or beat.

For what it is worth only 23 out of 39 hands are even pairs.

Small sample I know. Anyone else want to add data on preflop all-ins first level only ?

I don't know if there is a simple query or filter to show the data, I just went through tourney by tourney looking for level one hands with a pot of about 1600 2400 or any large pots then brought up the hand history.

Does this support a pocket 10 push ?

--
tjh

[tigerite]

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Or I double up and have twice the chance of winning this one.

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No.

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So therefore even a slight chance that they call with worse hands makes this a positive EV move.

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No.

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Actually, that first one is true.....isn't it? Twice the chipEV = twice the chance of winning.

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No, because chipEV isn't really a good indication anyway; it's something like 1.8x more likely you'll win by ICM, but I think even that is too high.

[tigerite]

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I see 11 hands that are better than a pair of tens. Out of the 39 hands that I show that makes them look pretty good.

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Oh jesus, like 39 hands is even any kind of indication..
You played this like poop.

[EnderFFX]

Four people left, and they will probably only call you with monsters. JJ+/AJs+/AQ+ (i'm guessing for the 10's, for the 5's probably a looser standard). Most of the time you win only the blinds.

I agree with this strategy at the 25/50 blinds and above when winning the blinds adds a significant amount to your chip stack and it becomes more likely that a mid to small pair calls you. (At 25/50, you would gain 175, and if you were at 800, you would add almost 25% to your stack)

I think if you were to try this in the long run, in the lower blinds, you are going to lose more then you gain.

Well, go ahead and try it, and bring us back the results.