The river bet game - Page 3

dtbog · #21 03-24-2005, 06:19 PM

Hmm...

Hand 1:

B - I like a half-pot bet here.. I don't think he flopped a straight or a set. I think he has KJ more often than anything with an eight in it.

Hand 2:

C.

Gah.. I'd picked C and put him on A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] before I saw that he bought in for $40 and posted out of turn. He could have anything.

Then again, I'd say check/call... but that's weaktight and I'd rather make the push. Go ahead. C

Hand 3:

B

Playing against the BB makes this one pretty tricky. He could have 36, 54, 57, 52, any of that. I say make a bet, but fold to a c/r (unless it's a min-raise in which case I think you have to call with odds)..

Hand 4:

B

Why does he c/r this flop? A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T, 99? I doubt he has TT or QQ, unless he's into limp-raising QQ... could he have A2? I'd hope he wouldn't limp UTG and then c/r that flop with it... I'll take B, half-pot bet. See if he'll call with AT/AQ/(QT??)

Hand 5:

D

You know, I'm in an MoH mood, and I think he might have caught a flush. Wooooooooo.

Hand 5:

D. Block that shit... but if he raises, I don't think you can call.

-dB

kurto · #22 03-24-2005, 06:26 PM

"You know, I'm in an MoH mood, and I think he might have caught a flush. Wooooooooo." I'm surprised to hear this. It seems more likely that he was hoping for a spade flush then a diamond flush. If you're right, he may get a call. The other 100 times (just a guess) he doesn't have the diamond flush, you've driven out a call. (unless he has a straight, which he might call)

dtbog · #23 03-24-2005, 06:29 PM

Hey all -

After I posted my responses I read those of others... and I'm curious which hands call the 1/2 pot bet on Hand 5 (option B) but don't call a big overbet.

1/2 pot sort of looks like value-betting the nuts.. which is exactly what it would be. I might be underestimating villain here, but I think if he's calling this much with his lower flush, he'll call more. If he hit a straight -- he doesn't call an overbet, but I doubt he calls 1/2 pot. There's also the possibility that he simply doesn't believe you, and does call with the straight/two pair/whatever.

Remember, the overbet has to be called about 1/4 as often as the half-pot bet to make it more +EV. I pull a Wayfare here.

Comments? Disagreements?

-dB

dtbog · #24 03-24-2005, 06:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
It seems more likely that he was hoping for a spade flush then a diamond flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have to question why.

He didn't put any money in on the flop... and both flush draws were out on the turn. They seem totally equivalent to me -- I can't see why you would think he had one over the other.

EDIT: Hmm, you're right that it's more likely that he has spades, because the ace and king of diamonds are gone (duh.)

Then again, if he has a spade flush draw, he's not calling on the river anyway, right? (regardless of bet size)

See my post below about my thoughts on the MoH. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

-dB

BobboFitos · #25 03-24-2005, 10:26 PM

hand 1.
River: ($29) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: $29

Results in white below: 
UTG has Kc 4c (two pair, kings and eights).
Hero has Qs Kd (two pair, kings and eights).
Outcome: Hero wins $29. 

I thought villains most likely hand was a lone T or 6 followed by a flush draw
followed by a weaker king (or, possibly, 2 pair w/ a
king)

Given it was UTG, I didn't think a mid pair which wasn't two pair (any connector) was likely, especially due to lack of aggression. Betting against a busted draw has no value, but since he's checked to me, I should've thrown a bet. I think B, (bet half pot or so) is best, as there is no way he folds any king there.

I checked, (A) and he flipped over K4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

I dont like a big river bet, as well, because if villain is tricky, and did check something like JT this far, or did in fact have a mid pair which made trips on the river, (and wanted to check/call ME if I had the draw) I stand to lose the bet but it probably can't be called. So I think:
A (check) = 0 pts
B (half pot) = 2 pts
C (big bet) = -2 pts

hand 2.
River: ($41) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 checks.

Final Pot: $41

Results in white below: 
MP1 has Tc Kc (two pair, kings and fours).
Hero has Qh Ks (two pair, kings and fours).
Outcome: Hero wins $41. 

in all fairness i was 4 tabling, so i didn't see how little villain had left. my default play / standard is to check call, as I'm fairly positive my hand is good, *unless they played K9 that slowly on THAT flop with THAT many people (or a set)

he was also a poster, so really any hand was possible.

I checked with the intention of calling a bet, (B) he checked behind and showed KT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

The thing is, such a short stack is unlikely to make a move on pot, (with busted flush draw, busted gutdraw, or combination, or pair + flush) and they likely WILL have a king, especially a weaker king since he posted. Any villain will pay off the half pot (22 in stack, 41 in pot) I believe with any top pair, so that is the right play in this situation. Normally I think check/calling is best though.

Check/folding is bad, because a. the turn paired 4, making a set very unlikely (plus I bet almost pot, so the chance I'm getting called by low pair is small) b. all draws missed c. any king which value bet I most likely have outkicked (AK would raise) so
A (check/fold) = -3pts
B (check/call) = 1 pt
C (put him in, half pot) = 3 pts

hand 3.

River: ($30) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $18, BB calls $18.

Final Pot: $66

Results in white below: 
BB has 5d 6h (three of a kind, fives).
Hero has 3d Ad (straight, five high).
Outcome: Hero wins $66. 

I really didn't like the river. (note, also, I think my turn raise was too small) I bet half pot (B) but I was probably going to fold to a checkraise. even though i would've basically throw up in disgust.

I think checking is too weak, as there are numerous hands the BB will call with that we have beaten. In this hand BB had 56o for pair + OESD on turn, and trips on the river. I really dont know what the correct river play is, but he definately would've called more, and I think other hands would call more, too. So I'm just going to say:

A (check) = 0 pt
B (bet half/fold to raise) = 2pts
C (bet half/call raise) = 1 pt
D (bet bigger) = 2 pt

Not sure about this hand. all i know is I like betting, but I can understand checking.

hand 4

River: ($44.50) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: $44.50

Results in white below: 
UTG has Th Ac (two pair, tens and twos).
Hero has 5s 2s (three of a kind, twos).
Outcome: Hero wins $44.50. 

I actually, at the time, thought villain was BB when he min checkraised me on the flop, so I immediately thought bigger trips. wasn't till the turn check (I wondered why a 2 would do that) I noticed he wasn't the BB. So he limped utg and min checkraised the flop, checked the turn... I sorta assumed draw, so I thought my river bet would have no value. I didn't consider he could have a TPTK hand or overpair, and without thinking much, i checked behind. He had ATo. His play actually makes sense, and mine either looks like a
weaker ten, weird trips (which is what it was) or over aggro semibluff. Villain most likely has a draw (which wont call any bet) or a TPTK/middling hand like that. (KT, QT - would expect more action fro mthat, JT, etc) i think ahalf pot bet or so gets paid off, and really I have no reason to suspect villain is sandbagging a hand like A2, TT, or QQ (would raise preflop/bet flop/etc) Also a half pot is good for shania bluffing purposes, because although my opponents (most of them) aren't observant, a few are, and will see I check this fairly strong hand. so my river bets become transparent. I dont htink overbetting is bad, either, as it could be read as a busted draw and get a big callfrom a very marginal top pair hand. Once again, the chance I trap myself is small. This opponent, straightforward in all, was probably prepared to check/call any, so I probably should've either made a nice half pot, oroverbet and seen what happened.
I think-
A (check) = -2pts
B (half pot) = 3pts
C (big bet) = 2 pts

can't distinguish which is better. Maybe half pot only because it sets up future bluffs, whereas I will probably not ever bluff a big bet there on a busted draw.

hand 5, backdooring the nuts

River: ($18.50) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $11, BB calls $11.

Final Pot: $40.50

Results in white below: 
BB has 9c 4s (two pair, nines and fours).
Hero has Kd Ad (flush, ace high).
Outcome: Hero wins $40.50. 

I played this funky as I would normally follow up my bet, but this opponent was new (and bought in a weird amount) which leads me to believe he'd check/call a pair down or something.
In any case his call on the turn seems either straight draw, flush draw, or less likely unless they're passive, a pair. (any, really) The river is great for me, as it makes a few straight draws, and alot of connector type hands one might defend their blind now has 2 pair.
I thought he would call with any pair, hoping I was bluffing my busted overcards. (with my bet) The complete lack of strength up to this point quelled my hope he had a big hand (set, 2 pair, smaller flush, straight) so I just hoped to make the most I could from what was likely a one pair hand. interestingly, he turned over 94o, for turned and then rivered 2 pair. I guess this guy was just the typical fish.

So in retrospect a big bet would've been best, but I believe my play here actually was best overall. Normally when I backdoor an unlikely hand I make a big bet, but since this whole hand had little strength displayed, there was no need to blow him off a weak holding and collect relatively nothing. So:

A (check the nuts behind) = You fail
B (halfpot) = 3pts
C (full pot) might be paid off by a pair, but unlikely
= 1 pt
D (big bet!) = 0 pts
This bet is very unlikely to be called given the action, so even though you make more when they do, the % they call is small.

last hand, #6 (I do lose hands on occaison)

River: ($10) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $7, MP2 calls $7.

Final Pot: $24

Results in white below: 
Hero has 7h 4d (two pair, sevens and fours).
MP2 has 3d 3s (three of a kind, threes).
Outcome: MP2 wins $24. 

I'm not sure if I was going to call a raise or not (probably not)The flop was checked around, and my turn bet was simply called. I really didn't think anyone had a big hand, I thought my turned 2 pair was golden, (what a bb special) but someone could've picked up a flush draw on the turn which got there on the river. or just had a weak ace and decided to check along. I dont think I get raised by a weaker
hand, so bet / fold makes sense to me. In the actual hand villain turned over 33 for a flopped set, (amazing how poorly he played it) and I was very thankful I didn't lose more. (if he raised the turn or did something to put SOME money into the pot!)

I thin check/folding is very weak and bad, because if you check it's very possible they bet with a weaker hand for value (an ace, for example) so check/calling better. But the range they check behind with (anything that will pay off) is too big to make check/calling viable.

I think bet/folding is superior to bet/calling, because they probably cant have a smaller hand to raise you.

A bigger bet may have been in order, though, because it's not likely they fold a marginal hand there. I was really surprised I didn't win the hand. so
A (check/fold) = -2 pts
B (check/call) = -1pt
C (bet/call) = 0 pt
D (bet/fold) = 2pt
E (bigger bet) = 2pts

All in all:

15pts (perfect) = River master
8-14 pts (very good) = River pro
3-7 pts (good) = River semi pro
0-2 pts (ok) = Needs some work
Anything negative = Poor river player

I scored 6 points total, so I did semi-well. But river play, especially 100xbb when you have money left, is so important because you either win 100% or win 0%, no outdraws on the river. If I played the river perfectlythis session I could've won much more.

BobboFitos · #26 03-24-2005, 10:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
hand 1:
At first i thought check behind since there's a very good chance he has a missed draw, but now i think bet halfpot because KJ and K10 will probly pay off.

[/ QUOTE ]

2 pts, I agree, a halfpot was in order

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hand 2:
i like betting his stack(halfpot) to get value from smaller kings. if you check and he moves in i think you have to call, so its better to make the value bet. also he has a short stack which means he's probly weak which increases ur chances of getting called by Kx.

[/ QUOTE ]

pefect analysis, 5 pts total

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hand 3
how about a stab on the flop? its pretty raggedy and you have outs.
on the river i check. theres not many hands that you beat that will call. the chances of him having a 7 and paying off is pretty small, and a 5 probly bets the river. since hes BB, he might have a higher straight like 36 or 68 which he checked but will call a bet with.

[/ QUOTE ]

flop bet might be ok, but 3 opponents I'd rather just check back. Also not sure how great a few of my outs are.

5 pts total

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hand 4
if hes really straightforward you can bet small say 1/4 pot so that a ten will call. otherwise check behind the river. Also, in the future try to pair your kicker on the river.

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You think he has a 2 based on turn and river passivity? This is technically 3pts, as he'll call, but it wasn't an option, so I'm making it 2 :P 7 pts total

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hand 5
bet halfpot or smaller. he cant have a very big hand and will probly fold to a big bet. next best is to try to MoH him if hes really weak.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, new guy, he WAS really weak, (so I *should've* MoHed) but against a generic opponent the bet stands, 3 pt. 10 total.

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hand 6
i like a small blockin bet because a small ace or a seven might call. of course, fold if you get raised.

[/ QUOTE ]

Very well done. 2 more points for 12 total. You're in the lead for the great prize of 5 bucks. (you're also the first I've checked..)

BobboFitos · #27 03-24-2005, 10:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Ok I'll take a stab at the bet the river game [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Ok, Hand 1:

I'd go for option B, bet a bit less than 1/2 the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

2 for 2

[ QUOTE ]

Oops. You're right. On hand #2 I would check/cal to snap off a bluff from a missed flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

1 pt here. 3 total

[ QUOTE ]

Hand 2: ((MY EDIT: really 3))

B, but I think it's close and player dependent. A lot of people will bet their boat on the river there, fearing a check behind. I'm not sure what he's calling with there on the turn unless it's 77, 44, 22...An overpair would have surely bet the flop. Presumably UTG wouldn't have a 5. Yet his check on the river is throwing me off a bit. Against a loosie who could have a 5 UTG, I'll call the river checkraise.

[/ QUOTE ]

wooooo 2 more pts, 5 total

[ QUOTE ]

Hand 4:
Edited:
Option B.
He check-minraises you on the flop on T 2 2 board. Very weird. I think it could be a donk trying to play a flush draw like this (wouldn't be bad if the checkraise was for more than min amount, imo). I would expect to see a mid-pocket pair or flush draw out of this guy a decent portion of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

3 more, 8 now

[ QUOTE ]

Hand 5:
Option B, bet 1/2 the pot.
I play this a bit differently though. I'll definitely bet this flop heads up in position. Check behind on the turn and then value bet 1/2 to 2/3 the pot on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, played this a little differently, and I dont think pariculary well, your line is better. so 8, + 3 for the answer, 11 now.

[ QUOTE ]

Hand 6:
Option D, throw a blocking bet out there and fold to a raise. I think you have the best hand a good portion of the time here.

So how did I do? [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

KoW

[/ QUOTE ]

very well, 13 total. you're in the lead!

BobboFitos · #28 03-24-2005, 10:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
1)A I want a cheap showdown and would hate getting c/r here

[/ QUOTE ]

0 pts. I still think this is a bet that goes uncalled most of the time, but the chance they have a BIG hand at this point is slim - with two pair / set / straight they (should) have shown either some aggression on the flop, or definately when I give some turn action. So yeah, a checkraise would be ugly, but I think this is a pos EV bet. I just didn't think it at the time ;x
[ QUOTE ]

2)B Induce a river bluff by missed flush draw?

[/ QUOTE ]

what I would do against a bigger stack, on the board with 1!

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3)B I think you are ahead here most the time, but a c/r would probably indicate a boat

[/ QUOTE ] going to give the full 2 here, 3 total

[ QUOTE ]

4)A Check behind. Your stop and go on the turn indicates a lot of strength (I think), and your opponent still calls. If he missed a flush draw your not getting any more out of him, and if he has weak trips he could still have you beat.

[/ QUOTE ]if opponent was BB, or the board was T 5 5, I think your thinking is very valid and smart, but given a UTG limper and T 2 2, (and very straightforward player) I think checking is missing alot of value. (and yet I checked!) 1 total
[ QUOTE ]

5)B I'm value betting the nuts here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, nice! How much though!?!?! :P eh.. 2 total

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6)D I'd toss in a blocking bet and fold to a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess the last one is standard, I kinda wanted to bet more and really bleed top pair, but I think the current line / what everyone advises is in fact the best. 4 total. you, like me, need to work on our river play

BobboFitos · #29 03-24-2005, 10:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
1. If you think his turn bet means he paired his king then b. Otherwise I guess I'd check behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

but what do you thinK! it's the name of the game.. you're playing the hand ;p i'll give ya a point

[ QUOTE ]

2. I'd put him all in.

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4 total now
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3. hand 3 is tough because of his call of your turn bet. And when the river pairs the board--ugh. I guess I'm checking behind.

[/ QUOTE ]
0
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4. Not sure what to make of the flop minraise (what did you think of it?). I guess I value bet for 20 to 26.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought it was a flush draw, or ANY pair just saying "I bet you're betting because you want to steal the pot, but I in fact have a pair!"

I (maybe) should've reraised, but I quickly called because I didn't want to bloat the pot in case I ran into bigger trips (like A2) because i felt if a draw hit i'd be able to use position to either lose the min or hopefully win the max. given i checked the river i give myself too much credit.

you get another 3 points. (7)
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5. c or d. Maybe lean to d, let him think you are trying to push him around.

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Yeah, pushing em around is fun... 1 more pt, 8 total
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6. bet 8-10. If reraised, call or fold depending upon opponent.

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I like this. 10 total, good job, but not tops

BobboFitos · #30 03-24-2005, 10:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
1. A
2. C
3. B
4. B
5. B
6. B - and what are you doin in the pot with 74o? [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

10 pts, nice job -

hey, curious about 6. why do you think check/calling is best?