Live Game - Incorporating reads

[Guruman]

what a crazy result.

I think I disagree with betting the turn though.

if bb will check through the turn (and since she freakin folded the river I'm guessing that's a distinct possibility), then we probably should to go for the free card.

consider this - which is a bigger mistake for button to make?

a)not raising the turn
b)not betting the turn

The answer is clearly B, since she's ahead and allowing us to draw for free to beat her.

The problem with leading the turn is that we don't give her the opportunity to make that mistake.

I guess the real question is - if she makes mistake A 85% of the time here, and makes mistake B 15%, is it worth the bet that denies her the opportunity to make mistake B in order to "disguise our hand"?

I don't think so.

we're not trying to outsmart her. We're trying to rob her.


...

and how much of a hand reader is she anyway?
is it really worth passing on the chance at a free card when we're drawing and she's got top pair?