Is this a push? Can someone run the numbers.

[smellynuts]

***** Hand History for Game 3225497735 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $10 Buy-in + $1 Entry Fee Trny:18405519 Level:7 Blinds(150/300) - Sunday, December 18, 23:01:04 EDT 2005
Table Table 68281 (Real Money)
Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 8: MuckUrGirl ( $1285 )
Seat 5: himawari4936 ( $660 )
Seat 6: LilClassic ( $4440 )
Seat 7: huw22 ( $1615 )
Trny:18405519 Level:7
Blinds(150/300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to MuckUrGirl [ Qc Jc ]
huw22 folds.
MuckUrGirl ...

[bluefeet]

no need to - yes

[LethalRose]

Id say so, yes.

[bluefeet]

ok, maybe i shouldn't answer while playing - it is pretty close. but shortie...despite being shortie, is probably tightening up enough here - hoping bigstack looks you up, to make it so.

[bluefeet]

OK, I'm done.

I might have lied to you. The calling ranges make a HUGE difference here. Estimating either is a bit challenging (read on both might help). More so for BB obviously.

I think with you pushing, SB would be hard pressed to join in here. We'll work with 44+,AT+,KQ+.

BB: Somewhere between the 'loose' and 'maniac' defaults would be my guess. Where the former gives you a green light, and the other range would have you folding. Given the "can't fold a PP to a 4x"...but tightening up the Ace a bit, how about something like this: 22+,A6+,K9s+,KJ+,QJ+ .....bah, still no good -.1

We need something in the "22+,A9+,KQ+" range to make this slightly better than marginal.

Again, back to the read. 900 more isn't nothing to sneeze at. Can he give you enough credit for pushing OVER shortie here, to tighten him up to a decent Ace? Perhaps.

You also have the problems on NOT pushing. You only have 4bb's yourself. If you pass, shortie needs to push any two here. With his double-up, you're looking at being shortie. Next hand, you'll be in a little better shape. A must 'any two' push, with ample FE however.

Considering the range we need BB to be on here - and you're "better" push next hand, folding is reasonable. Close enough where I wouldn't lose sleep over pushing unsuccessfully either.

[jeffraider]

Agree with bluefeet, this looks very close.

[Hendricks433]

Got any Reads on SB and BB?

[SammyKid11]

Tough situation. I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say this is a fold. The biggest reasonable +EV edge I can come up with here is in the 0.5% range...and that's if you're a little lucky on calling ranges. At the 11's, I think there's a very decent chance BB would look you up with any ace...I've no doubt SB would be tighter, hoping that BB looks you up and busts you. But that assumes SB is a thinking player at all.

In this case, I think you need to take what we would normally think of as a reasonable calling range based on stack sizes...and then widen them CONSIDERABLY for BB -- and somewhat for SB.

Taking into account the possibility that one or both of them are total donkeys, I put their calling ranges as follows:

BB: 22+, A2s+, A5o+, K9s+, KJ+, QTs+, QJ+, JTs
SB: 22+, A5s+, A9+, KTs+, KQ+, QJs

These ranges make folding pretty clear.

Note: I'm not saying that I think these are the "standard" ranges for two players with these stacks...just ranges that I've widened to reflect the possibilities of their stupidity. If they're big idiots, I wouldn't at ALL be surprised to get shown J7s here. If they're small idiots, the range I've defined might work. And if they're not idiots, a considerably tighter range should be employed for SB while BB's range is, I think, accurately defined by bluefeet. The range I've plugged in should be taken as an average of their potential intelligence levels. So...if you have reads that indicate something different than "unknown 11 donk" -- that information could be highly valuable in terms of whether or not this is a push.

Edit: I shouldn't disparage bad player's intelligence as I did. Playing badly does not necessarily indicate stupidity (though sometimes that is the case). I should have said their intelligence/experience level, etc. If I'd never read these boards or a myriad of poker books, I might well play VERY poorly, but that alone would not indicate that I was of low intelligence (though, perhaps playing without studying IS a sign of either low intelligence or perhaps low discipline levels). Anyway, wanted to fix that.

[tigerite]

It's very close either way. I probably would actually push here because if you don't, then the blinds are going to put you way down and it's going to be your random 2 cards v the current SB's random 2 cards in what, 3 hands time? That's not a good situation, to be honest. And that's only if the SB doesn't double up in the mean time. I could see the BB folding here for instance if the SB pushes to "keep the bubble alive" which would be terrible for you, of course.

Meh. Either option just sucks really, and I prefer to be the aggressor with at least a half decent hand, which even if called I'm probably not dominated (but I don't actually want to be called, of course).

You also have the (slim) chance of the BB folding because he wants to maintain aggression, in the long term he can probably fold a lot here and make up the lost $EV by pushing the next two hands anyway.