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Old 04-13-2005, 07:50 PM
floppy floppy is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 7
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I'm in a 12-week poker league, where you get a score for your finish each week (1 = finished first; 2 = finished second, etc. so lowest score is best), and you can use your top 8 scores. There's no bonus points for top finishes, so there's no real bubble.

Here's the hand I'm wondering about: There's 7 players, I'm UTG+1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Blinds are 20/40, I have ~1100. Two folds to me and I bring it in for 120. CO calls (his stack has me covered), everyone else folds.

Pot is 300
Flop:
K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I bet 100
CO raises to 300

Here's my thinking:
CO is a solid player, so Harrington's Rule aside (at least 10% chance anyone is bluffing), I think he has at least a K. Also, KQ is a pet hand of his, so that possibility is prominent in my thinking.

I currently have 900, and it costs me 200 to call. If he has KQ or a set of Ks or As, I'm way behind and the call is wrong. I'd also be pretty close to pot committed, so I'm thinking the choice here is to raise all-in (again, pot committed) or fold. The 200 to call makes it a 900 pot, and if he calls my all-in I'm probably toast, so it's 900 to win 700.

There's 13 combinations of AA, KK, QQ, and KQ. There's 16 combinations of KJ and KT, so it's very borderline. I guess Harrington's Rule would push it to an all-in, but that didn't occur to me at the time. Also, you gain every time someone else goes out, and there's a second table as well, so staying in the game is important (rather than no bubble, as I stated before, it's like there's always a bubble if you look at it this way)

I thought about it and folded.

The only other possibility that I can see would be to call the 200, which would make the pot and my remaining stack 700, then fire 100 if the next card was a spade (he probably doesn't have the flush, since it's the K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] on the board, but he might think I have it) or 200 if it's anything but a Q (he might put me in a decision for everything, but checking or a weaker bet would simply invite it).

So, was my reasoning at the time sound (let's assume Harrington's Rule didn't exist), and is the post-mortem sound (i.e., was calling a better play)?
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