SNGPT says it's negEV....

[ZeroPointMachine]

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PP $22, I plugged in CO pushing instead of raising, SnGPT says I should be folding QQ to a maniacal push range, and KK to a loose push range....what do you guys think?


PartyPoker, Big Blind is t150 (4 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

CO (t2670)
Hero (t915)
SB (t4135)
BB (t280)

Preflop: Hero is in Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="red">CO raises t520</font>, <font color="red"> Hero raises 915 (all in) </font>, <font color="gray">SB folds</font>, <font color="red"> BB calls 130 </font>, CO calls t395

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There's a lot of stuff going on here, and a lot of the replies don't make much sense to me.

First, depending on how CO has been playing the default "maniac" range of 22+,A2s+,A3o+,KTs+,KJo+,QJs is probably considerably too tight. If big stack is passive, CO might raise about top 50% here, being happy to go in as a slight favorite with BB's random hand to eliminate him.

Second, there's a weakness to the analysis here that falls into the "ultra-short stack" category. If you fold, SnGPT assumes BB will also fold. This isn't a good assumption here, since BB will call a lot of the time, and that has important consequences for this bubble hand.

Since he's more or less out if he folds, and he's probably near 50/50 to double up or bust if he calls, then the analysis isn't considering the 50% chance that he doubles if you fold. This lowers your "Fold EV" quite a bit, since we're on the bubble.

Therefore, I think the analysis is overtightening your call range here due to the aforementioned effects. I call the QQ.

Considering action behind your fold is in the plans for improving SnGPT, but it's kind of a complex thing to do it well.

eastbay

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I don't understand how you can expand CO range when he is pushing 17+BB into the big stack. I also think BB has much less than 50% chance of doubling up with his random hand against CO's range.

I do agree that there are many circumstances where SNGPT over states your fold equity and this leads to misleading situations. Unfortunately, most of these situations involve calculating future actions and get complicated very quickly.

Wouldn't the fact that BB could be eliminated a large percentage of the time if you stay out of the hand actually increase your fold equity in this case.

How about just flat calling and folding to a CO bet with an overcard flop?

[eastbay]

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I don't understand how you can expand CO range when he is pushing 17+BB into the big stack.


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Without any more information I consider the raise to be weakness (I'm better than BB but I want a way to get out if SB picks something up.)

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I also think BB has much less than 50% chance of doubling up with his random hand against CO's range.


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Well clearly this depends on point 1.

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I do agree that there are many circumstances where SNGPT over states your fold equity and this leads to misleading situations. Unfortunately, most of these situations involve calculating future actions and get complicated very quickly.


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True.

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Wouldn't the fact that BB could be eliminated a large percentage of the time if you stay out of the hand actually increase your fold equity in this case.

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Well first of all I don't think it's a large percentage of the time. Second, no, not by much, since if BB folds his 150 chips away, he's darn near busted anyway.

eastbay