Hedge help...

Losing all · #1 09-26-2005, 12:12 PM

I need Arizona to go 4-2 this week for o75.5. I don't like my odds. I figure la and sf will be around -120/-150 against them in these games. Any advice?

lorinda · #2 09-26-2005, 01:02 PM

Every bet you make costs you money, so hedge the smallest amount that makes you happy with the outcome.

Try to think of any bets that you can win both ways (For instance if you could get LA +1.5 (Which I appreciate you won't) you could hedge and still win both bets.

As always with hedging, you really need to just bet what suits you. Get a payout you're happy with because the best advice at all is "Don't hedge" but this does not apply to bets outside of your comfort zone.

Lori

craig r · #3 09-26-2005, 01:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Get a payout you're happy with because the best advice at all is "Don't hedge" but this does not apply to bets outside of your comfort zone.

[/ QUOTE ]

If this is the case he should have never made the bet.

There is no way for him to safely hedge this. If he takes the fav in every game he could still lose both bets over the next 6 games.

craig

lorinda · #4 09-26-2005, 01:13 PM

There is no way for him to safely hedge this

Surely that depends on the initial price?

I was assuming it was quite long odds. If it was just a standard -110 shot, then yes, the bet is dead.

Lori

lorinda · #5 09-26-2005, 01:16 PM

Just to explain myself. Because I'm lucky enough to be able to be on Betfair, I often get in a position where I am out of my comfort zone where the initial bet was very small.

Taking a bet at 100-1 for even a few $$ soon means you are looking at winning a sum that is outside normal bounds of betting.

Thankfully for me of course, each time I hedge, I make 1% rather than lose money if I do it properly, but of course this doesn't apply at normal sports books. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Lori

craig r · #6 09-26-2005, 05:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
There is no way for him to safely hedge this

Surely that depends on the initial price?

I was assuming it was quite long odds. If it was just a standard -110 shot, then yes, the bet is dead.

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]

If he bet this at the beginning of the season, then it is probably anywhere between +120- (-130). If he did get it at tradesports, then he will probably lose less money by selling it back at whatever price they are offering. Especially if ARI is playing on the road in these next 6 games, because they will defnitely be dogs.

craig

Losing all · #7 09-27-2005, 04:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]

There is no way for him to safely hedge this.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is what I figured, can't hurt to ask the brain trust though.

Losing all · #8 10-01-2005, 01:54 AM

Was there ever asny doubt?

Nothing like cashing a ticket I tore up 6 weeks ago

The bullpen!?! was my savior???

better to be lucky than good

I hope evry player on this horrible team gets punched in the face tonight