mid-season MLB futures

[Losing all]

Anyone else shopping around for these? I don't post picks here, but I'll post some of these for you sharps to kick the hell out of.

Crud division- The NL west is a joke of underachievement. SD will probably win by default, not that any of these teams deserves the playoffs.

standings
SD 48-41
ARIZ 43-47 -5.5
LA 40-48 -7.5
SF 37-50 -10
col, why bother

picks and reasons

Ariz over 75.5 wins -118 (pinny) I don't like this team much, but considering they have many games to come against their weak division I think this is a real value. They only need to play 33-39 from here on out

also

Ariz +850 to win the NL west (5 dimes). 5.5 back, so this is a longshot, not 85/10 longshot though. LA has played like crap since game 14, and now the whole team is hurt. Not turf toe, no chance of contending hurt. This is a two (bad) team race, and the juice is nice.

NL east- I think ATL will win, I went into today looking to bet them. My picks go against that feeling based on the odds given.

Standings
Wash 52-36
Atl 50-39 -2.5
Flo 44-42 -7
Phi 45-44 -7.5
NYM 44-44 -8

picks and reasons

Wash +360 (5 D) This is strictly based on the number (pinny is +232 for example) They could easily finish 3rd, maybe lower. Lots of rumors of Frank shopping for a big bat though, and if you think they're good for winning 1 time in 4 from this position you earn sklansky bux on the play.

Bridge jumper #1- Looking back to preseason I really liked Minn, and I still do. I thought they'd have an easier time of their division than STL or Ana, wrong. Strange things can happen in baseball, but the sox won this thing several weeks ago.

standings
CHI 57-29
Minn 48-38 -9
Cle 47-41 =11

pick, Sox at -640 (5 D)

Bridge jumper #2- Stl has an even bigger lead (hou -11.5, cubs -12.5) and a better team. I don't have the funds to pull the trigger. If I did I'd lay the -1820 at pinny

another non-bet for me, mostly due to hate. NYY+158 to win the AL east (5 D). Balt had their fun, this is a 2 team race now. Bos has a 2.5 game edge at the moment, is that worth +158? I doubt it.

Opinions welcomed

GL

[MrFeelNothin]

Ill sell you some WASH at +400.



Whats with declaring the AL Central race over? The way I see it, its only just begun. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] Seriously, this should be a tight 3 team race all the way to the finish. The White Sox arent as good as their record.

[Losing all]

I can understand your thinking on WASH. Like I mentioned above I like ATL. That being said, if the price is right. +360 is a slap in the face to any 2.5 game leader at this point. Thanks for the offer to book more of my action, I think I'll pass.

As far as the AL central "tight race" goes, can we really call it a race at all? You can find an excellent thread on this subject on SSB's MLB section this week. I suggest any serious player check it out.

[MrFeelNothin]

Im all for betting on Wash, its just that some of us noticed they weren't getting respect a long time ago. I have a bunch of WASH at 12-1, I think some others have 16-1.

As far as the AL Central, instead of referencing me to some article that I dont care about, would you mind giving me your own opinion on how the White Sox are going to keep up their current pace?

[mrbaseball]

[ QUOTE ]
I think some others have 16-1

[/ QUOTE ]

When they first crept into first place they were still at 18-1. I graabbed all I wanted and then posted it here and I know a few 2+2ers jumped on at that price which was phenominally good. Now if they can just hang on [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]
how the White Sox are going to keep up their current pace

[/ QUOTE ]

Pitching mostly. But the combination of pitching, defense and ability to manufacture runs as well as slug. And team chemistry and attitude. Many often forget baseball is a "team" sport and not just a compilation of 25 indivuals statistics. Chemistry is the real key to their success as it was for Florida in 03 and Anahiem in 02. I'll take a team any day over an assortment of various superstars.

[Losing all]

[ QUOTE ]
Im all for betting on Wash, its just that some of us noticed they weren't getting respect a long time ago. I have a bunch of WASH at 12-1, I think some others have 16-1.

As far as the AL Central, instead of referencing me to some article that I dont care about, would you mind giving me your own opinion on how the White Sox are going to keep up their current pace?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd obviously much rather have 12/1 or 16/1, I missed that boat. At this time +360 looks like a value.

The thread I'm talking about isn't about the sox, just several sharp sports bettors talking about futures and the math involved. As far as my opinion on Chi keeping up their current pace, they don't need to. If you assume the 3 teams are equal the true line is around -850 with this huge lead. I think it's safe to say the sox are close enough to as good, if not better than minn/cle to make this a bet. The entire staff has overperformed a bit, but I still give them an edge over both teams on SP. The pen wont be as good in the second half. Minn has that going for them. The hitting hasn't even hit stride yet. I give the sox a slight edge over both teams here.

What's your opinion on the ariz plays?