Sharp thinking or Tard tinkering?

[Losing all]

I'm new to sports betting so please forgive the basic strategy questions. I'll be playing small this year while learning, and learning is the main goal, but I'm looking for low-risk money along the way. I think I've found a few good situations over the last couple of days and I'd like to hear the opinions of more experienced players.

assume 10% bonus at 3x play

ex #1 NBA
Det -3(+103)Bos +3.5(-115) My rough numbers- $100 on det, $115 on Bos- Det wins 49/100 (-$588), Bos wins 49/100 (push), Det wins by 3 2/100 (+$200), bonus cleared approx $650. Total +$262. Looks pretty good on paper and I'd imagine a 3 point fav hits the number at better than 2%? (my real guess would be 3-4% maybe even a little more?)

Am I way off base in my thinking or math here?

With 5-10 sites and some hard work will I find enough of these to make them worthwhile? (If they are to begin with)

#2 I've found a couple fav-1 dog+2 games. I don't remember the exact vig on these, but they didn't jump out to my untrained eye as great plays. what kind of juice can I pay and remain +ev on plays like this?

I know these examples are longshots to win, but if the juice is right I just don't see the downside. Opinions?

[QuickLearner]

Neither sharp nor tard, IMO. You're thinking and being creative...which is a good thing.

You are trying to middle a game between Detroit and Boston, right? Pardon the stupid question but I don't follow NBA at all anymore, so I'm assuming that you wrote it that way because that's the line on the game.

From what I remember, 1 and 2 are key numbers in NBA, but 3 is much less so, so the game probably won't end on the 3. I have no idea what the percentage is, but I bet that plenty of the cappers here can tell you. You have to hit at least 1 in 20 middles to make any money. I'll take a stab at what I think you are trying, which is to earn the bonus by betting both sides of a game and hoping to catch an accasional side or middle along the way.

Of course, you can't middle without playing the sides at different books, but I bet you knew that.

Lets say you deposit $1000 at 2 books and have $200 boonus waiting for you. How many bets of $100 will you need to make before you get your bonus? Sixty in total. You attempt 30 middles and don't get one. How much juice did you pay? At a standard dime line, you paid $9 vig for each bet you won and $0 for each bet you lost. Thirty x $9 is $270 in juice to earn your $200 bonus.

If you hit 1 of your 30 middles you lose about $60 after including the bonus; win 2 and you make about $140. Sounds okay so far. But you make have to wait until NEXT March to find 30 middles between two top-flight books. It just doesn't happen. Are you going to fund 10 sportsbooks to chase their bonuses? It will be an extremely long and boring grind, but it can be done. Most arb bettors have huge bankrolls and as many as 20 outs.

Example #2 kind of illustrates my point. You found a couple of games. That's not many. But, let's see... Assume a dime line and $100 bets on both sides. Fav -1; dog +2. They can't tie, so... if the fav wins by 1 you win $182. If the fav wins by 2 you win 1 side, push 1 side, (+$91). If the fav wins by more than 1 you push, (-$9 vig). If the dog loses by 1 or wins outright you push, (-$9 vig).

How often does the favorite win by exactly 1 or 2 points? Unless it's more that 4% for the one-pointer or 11% for the two-pointer you'll lose money here. And wait until you go to play your middle, get one side down, then the other side moves before you can get to it. You'll love that! To answer your question, I don't think its a matter of how much juice; I think you lose no matter what.

I guess it depends on what part of the hobby you want to pursue. You can learn to cap (or improve your skills) and play when you find an advantage. Or you can watch the Don Best screen all day. I much favor the capping.

All of the above is straight from the seat of my pants (some might say it a little less kindly) since I don't play NBA. Somebody please set me straight. If this is a great idea, publish your plays and I'll ride along! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]